Skip to comments.U.Va. analysis: Obama has already won (Dems can stay home)
Posted on 09/27/2012 4:20:58 PM PDT by nhwingut
They won't officially declare the election over, but the experts at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics Thursday declared that President Obama's surge in key battleground state polls has pushed him well over the magic mark of 270 Electoral College votes, meaning his reelection is all but a lock.
"We are not calling the race," said the experts, but the polls currently show "a decisive Obama victory."
The team of Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley said if the election were held today, Obama would win 290 Electoral Votes, Mitt Romney 204. And the 42 toss-up Electoral Votes would not be enough to help Romney even if he took them all.
Theirs is the first to essentially declare Obama the winner and it comes after they switched several battleground states from toss-up to leaning Democrat, including Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada. The change mirrors new polling in those states and caps a two-week trend favoring Obama in state polls.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
I agree. But I don't think he's going to win. I think what we are seeing is psy-ops from the propaganda wing of the DNC (i.e., the MSM).
Let's make every polling organization have some skin in the game.
First rule - you cannot change the projected out comes by more than 5 % over the life time of your polling. If you do your organization is barred from conducting polling for the next two national races (4 years). This would prevent the over sampling that we see today. It would also cost organizations more money than they could expect to gain from liberals. Second rule - if your final prediction is off by more than your poll's margin of error you are likewise barred from conducting polling for the next two national races. Again, make the polling organizations pay for playing with the numbers. If your business or mine plays with numbers the way the various polling organizations do we would be out of business in a heart beat. Why should they be any different? IMHO polling has become nothing more than the extension of the liberals.
Unless there is a penalty for being drastically wrong organizations conducting polls will continue to manipulate the results to please their political masters.
I agree, I see it going either way..If Obama wins I wouldn’t be shocked, knowing that so many people in this country want Communism..but if Romney wins I wouldn’t be surprised either because I see what the media is doing as a typical leftist tactic..and that if Romney does win they can scream RACISM and demand that the election goes to the Supreme Court and Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson will call for mass riots, I can see it all happening. I just wish I were a fly on the wall in the Romney campaign so that I knew what polls they have
“Dems Long For The Days Of Communist Dictatorships, Almost Half Want One-Party Rule In America...”
This is the 1/2 taking from the rest of us...OF COURSE they want “One Party” rule!!!!
nobody seems to want to mash here for some reason...
Lets see I haven’t met 1 McCain Voter changin allegiance and Voting Obama I have heard Hundreds of people Not Voting O In Pa a 2nd time and Givin Romney a shot. University Kids are apathetic , Blacks are a little disillusioned, the energy factor is in Republican Favor. I can’t believe Unemployed are Gonna want to Vote Obama This is ridiculous a Journalism Malpractice
more Democrat push marketing through “polls” - they, working together with the WH, are using polls to convince people to vote in the direction of the polls they are reporting, particularly working on anyone who, as much as they may not like Obama, is “not convinced”; trying to convince the unconvinced to side with who the polls want them to side with - on the psychology that the polls are telling them that’s the way so many of their friends and neighbors are voting
many of the sheeple ARE influenced by polls
In the article it states that a few Republicans polled want the same thing..the second I read that I said “Where, find me one Republican who wants Communism!”
The Democrat Party HAS turned into the Communist Party, they have actually been that way for a while but we are seeing them ALL come out of the woodwork now, they dont have to hide it anymore, being a Communist is not something for them to be ashamed of anymore, especially with a Communist being in the White House
If he wins, I don't think that is what finishes us off. I think it just shows that we were already finished. A diagnostics tool. Patient has been dead for a while.
I pray that there is still a pulse.
It’s certainly NOT over...but...with Obama having the Northeast and the far West...and Romney having the South...if Obama can checkerboard the Midwest...it’s over :^(
Sadly, I can show you at least one. I met up with a childhood friend on Facebook. He supports Obama and every liberal cause out there, but keeps reminding me hes a registered Republican whos disappointed in the direction the GOP has been going. I firmly believe he just wants to be loved by a lot of liberal friends.
Yo democrats, your man already won
So stay home and enjoy the free coffee and free phones and watch The View. Why go out there and stand in line and pull some stupid chad when you already won! Besides if you aren’t home someone else might get your obama money when the check come to the door...
I think one thing that escapes most of us is.. this is a very different country than the one in 1980. The prospect of losing one's job in 1980 was truly sobering, plus we had the stigma of sucking welfare. Fast forward to today, and the government is right there, two feet below with a hammock, replete with mints and pillows. Nowadays voters think, "so what if I lose my job? I have the government to send me checks for 99 weeks, plus I get EBT cards, housing and health care."
Well, just for the hell of it, let's vote anyway. We may not have the numbers anymore, but let's at least tell that pig turd in the White House he doesn't own all of us.
You nailed it. It doesn’t make ANY sense from any rational perspective.
Something is REALLY wrong. I - normally a very sound sleeper- am waking up in the night worrying about our nation, in ways that never dawned on me through the Carter or Clinton years.
The get their information from the State run media. They are told every day that the economy is getting better, everything is getting better, etc...
So why is it hard to believe that they are going to stick with the devil they know as opposed to voting for the devil they don't.
I believe that people are responding to the poles based on the limited and skewed information they receive.
Unfortunately this will probably translate into their actual votes this Nov.
We can show them all the facts we want, but idiot American populous only believe “what they see on TV”. That is the sad but true reality.
Well, all those hippies at Woodstock, the ones doing drugs, hating the nation, hating their parents, hating The United States, hating God, protesting wars staving off communism, they are entrenched in the government, they are entrenched in our schools, everything you see is the result of a generation who hated America and embraced its’ enemies, the coup is coming to fruition, communism is their goal, they bankrupted our nation, they have destroyed the family and marriage through divorce, the Democrat party is antichrist!
No. Our democracy is important. Democrats need to remember their civic duty and turn out in large numbers on November 7th.