Skip to comments.Tracking Ohio’s absentee ballot requests - from 3 of Ohio's largest counties (and bluest)
Posted on 09/27/2012 6:54:24 PM PDT by profit_guy
Executive summary: the process is ongoing, and whats being tracked are absentee/early ballot REQUESTS, not turned-in ballots. So its not telling us whos ahead in Ohio; its merely telling us what we know of which partys members are asking for ballots. In other words, its a possible measure of voter enthusiasm in Ohio. So
(Excerpt) Read more at moelane.com ...
I think the deadline is Nov. 1........either way the Dems are at 61% of 2008, while the GOP is at 101% of 2008 - so far...
Earlier today, prominent Freeper LS had a Google doc spreadsheet of absentee ballot requests by county in Ohio. Very informative. Let’s see if I can ping him to post that link here too.
WOW! Just wow!
Is there a link to that chart? I’d like to take a look at it.
Type in LS in search under “user” and you should find it.
and 97% of those 61% went to the same three addresses.
I was just able to confirm the deadline is Nov 3. Does anyone have the info for the other counties?
The GOP seems to be much more organized than the corrupt MSM would have us believe. I don’t buy their “resistance is futile” narrative.
In the article linked, the link to the google docs spreadsheet is on the line under the article title. That’s the same google docs spreadsheet that LS, LdSentinal and Ravi here at FR are analyzing daily.
It’s great to see this info get out into a conservative blog because the data implies a republican voter intensity and a democratic voter lack of enthusiasm that the skewed polls are NOT showing.
Well, we. Found out where that spreadsheet cm. from-—should have guessed-—Jay Cost. Fine by me, as I don’t car who assembles the data. But this guy’s approach I a little different, where I tend to stress the gap between D and Rs, he is looking at total turnout % in requests from 2008 to now. But we get to the same point.
Thanks for this.
Same spreadsheet only now I know where it came from. Before, I didn’t have a name. It’’s Jay Cost. Good data guy.
Of all the number-crunching analysts, I trust Jay Cost. I remember him from the 2000 (or 2004?) election prelude and he was just starting out. I followed his analysis a lot back then. He’s got quite big in the conservative blog world now. This is good because he seems dependable. He can get the word about the OH data coming in, because it blows away the assumptions of the polls.
With Romney saying he didn’t need to change his campaign, makes me think he’s pulling a Rope-A-Dope on nobama.
Its great info about the absentee vote percentages 2008 to 2012. MSM reporters are as lazy as nobama to not see this too and realize the polls are not showing a true picture, i.e. Ohio.
Yes, he made his bones in 04, really didn’t have much to say in 06 or 08, and now is back to his number crunching strength. BTW, isn’t it interesting.that a week after we start discussing this, everyone else picks it up?
Team Romney has been doing polling for nearly two years now and, as the economy has gotten worse, I bet their internals have gotten better and better. We won't know for sure until election day, but I think Romney has had a pretty solid game plan all along.
LS, do you have any thoughts (or info) on how well organized we are on the ground in OH vs. Obama’s team?
And how we stack up to McCain’s efforts?
I am not sure it’s a winning strategy but what I think the Romney doctrine is in regards to winning the election is this. Ads be damned. There is a certain amount of people who are going to vote for him no matter what. A certain amount who will vote for Obama no matter what. The game is about turnout. I believe that the vast majority of Romney’s “war chest” is going into organizing an amazing GOTV campaign. I don’t think you will see a major ad buy ramp up from the campaign because it’s all about getting boots on the ground to get people to the polls. I don’t know if this is a winning idea (and I think it would be much better if he had a way to get the base excited before attaching himself to this idea) but this is the approach I believe he is taking. It would be nice to see it work. Not because I think he’s a good candidate, not because I think he’d be a good President or save the Idea that is America but because it would be really nice to listen to the drive by’s explain away an Obama loss. I might actually watch CNN again (that night only)
A lot of readers lurk at FR, from conservatives to DU/DKos types. Jay Cost might be a FReeper. Andrew Breitbart was one. You never know who is reading.
The more this OH absentee data gets out, the better, as the media pressures the Romney campaign to basically give up on Ohio and all the swing states. Give up when they very well could be leading? Ludicrous, isn’t it?
It’s county by county. Montgomery Co. Is excellent in calling and walking, setting national records. On the other hand, we don’t have a strong chairman or local Romney chairman. But light years better than McCain and as. Best I. Can tell better than Obama’s.
Thanks for checking in, LS.
Romney needs to hammer his 5-point plan to the voters hard at the debates. And hammer Obama on the Middle East and how it effects our national security (without sounding like he wants to go to war). But after that I agree, it is IMPERATIVE to get the base out, because I truly believe the ‘Undecideds’ are a very low number this time around. Fortunately most of that is volunteer work, and shouldn’t cost too much?
This is wonderful news.
And it’s even better when you consider that very few Republicans would be likely to request absentee ballots in order to propel Obama into another four-year term, while many Democrats who were fooled into thinking Obama was the Messiah in 2008 may well be angry enough to vote for Romney this year.
Theories on my part (IMO)
1. GOP enthusiasm.
2. Grass roots since 2008
2a Freedom Works GOTV
2b AFP GOTV
3c Citizens United GOTV and group organizing
3d True the Vote groups
3f Tea Parties of all shapes and sizes
4. Democrat overconfidence
5. 2008 Obama Magic is fading and it’s turning out to be traditional PRECINCT GOTV contest
Who is the SOS in Ohio (R or D)?
Let me tell you of an incident I had in Missouri a few months ago at a political rally (Rally for Common Sense near Jefferson City). I was having a chat with the local/Regional Tea Party Patriots leader which was most informative.
At their booth, they were signing up local volunteers for the defense of Gov. Walker (recall). The TPP would provide airfare, room, board and training for precinct organizing and GOTV. LOTS of people were signing up! According to the TPP person, there were signing up people as far away as California, Florida and Texas....and that’s not counting the out-of-state phone banks!
I can only imagine the scope which these groups (and countless others) are doing behind the scenes to take back our country. If they can do this for a recall election against the liberal bastion of Wisconsin (where the gates of Mordor were in full force) I shudder what they’re doing in the general election.
WE ARE NOT ALONE FREEPERS!!!!
Ha! Should have known. Jay Cost. Excellent numbers guy. I’ll take him over that 538 guy any day. He had great insight in 2004. We are the resistance!
LS, this is concerning, if true:
OK, this from the HuffPo so it is terribly biased off the bat (and intended to be that way). The MSM is out to dispirit and lie and distort and HuffPo is one of the worst.
In 2010 I don’t think there was much ground game but Republicans/Tea Party people would have walked over broken glass to vote. It probably won’t be at the 2010 level this year (or could be?) but the numbers are looking like it will be far from 2008 either..for the Democrats. My gut feel is it’s going to be another strange wave election but the results will be like 2010 for us...
How do we know if this info is really accurate?
You always have lurkers. Can only tell how things are going by talking to folks at local shops, barbers, beauty, bars etc.
For example: My neighbors are not political. This go around they have made sure all family, children and spouses are registered to vote. (8 total) They are voting AGAINST Obama. Papa says the kids can’t use his shooting range unless they follow his advice on this one. lol
He’s Union. Since IN has the right to work law, many seem to be telling union bosses to “shove it” they’ll vote for whomever they please. They can now take their money out of the union PAC.
I can only speak for Montgomery, but this captain, who works the downtown, mostly black areas of Dayton thinks it's the DEMS who are disorganized. She said the county (and therefore Romney) organization is superbly organized with detailed readouts on every one of their voters. An absentee voter is WALKED 24 hours after they get a slate card!
Meanwhile the Romney HQ is setting records for calls---second highest in the nation! There have already been more calls and walks than in 2008.
The captain also said that of all the Dems she has called, many have moved, disconnected their phones, or are otherwise gone. She concluded the Dems would have a devil of a time getting out the vote.
There are few bumper stickers or yard signs, anywhere for Romney or Zero. I think this reflects two things. First, at least on Romney's part, a deliberate unconventional campaign emphasizing the Internet and ads---lots of ads. I get:
1) an e-mail from R EVERY DAY
2) a letter or two every week (for at least a month).
The second reason I think Romney in particular is downplaying signs and stickers is that he knows MANY will be afraid to very publicly signal their support. However, we have VERY good proxies in state and local Rep candidates. And you can drive down streets that in 08 were lined with Obama signs and see "Jim Butler" (a state senate rep) on one house after another--- or other GOP candidates. Do you think they will split their tickets? Not many. So to me a Jim Butler sign is a stealth Romney sign.
Finally, the proof is in the pudding. SO FAR, forgetting the polls, the REAL "polling" is taking place in the absentee voting in which Romney appears to be killing it---unless a whole bunch of Rs are voting for Obama. We have a good thread on that. The Rs are hugely outperforming 2008 levels while the Ds are hugely underperforming 2008. So much for +9 D polling!
I can be totally wrong about the numbers, but if they hold up, you have to conclude that, in OH at least, Romney is running a good campaign,
I keep hearing this and I'm just not buying it. Many, if not most, GOP candidates are far more offensive to libs than Romney. I know several people voting Romney at the top of the ticket and then pulling the rest of the levers for Dems.
I think it's that while anti-Obama sentiment is very strong, Romney support is very thin. People aren't putting pro-Romney signs in their yards because they don't want to be in a position to defend him when he's elected. I do think he'll be elected. I agree with you that most conservatives (including myself) will not be splitting the ticket. Anybody but Obama syndrome is widespread.
Until they find a tractor-trailer filled with "previously misplaced" Dim votes. Then the MSM can cry out about how the Dim people in charge scared them (vs. going after the fraud) and they should have their hands slapped for making folks think Obama might have actually lost.
Problem with early balloting numbers like this is that it lets the Dems know EXACTLY how many ballots they need to manufacture. And in Ohio, we can be sure they’re already hard at it.
Could be. All I know is that there are far more Mike Turner (congressman), Jim Butler (state rep) and judge yard signs than Romney. But almost NO Obama signs either.
The fact that we now know this spreadsheet came from Jay is incredibly reassuring, and it tells me that we are onto something or he wouldn’t waste his time. Whew.
The Tea Parties and Freedomworks, have, as best I can tell, taken over large parts of the walking and calling functions previously done by a presidential campaign. So no need to double up.
Same here (Philly area). And THAT's why I think 0's going to lose. Conservatives are riled up to vote against him but his own side is not so crazy about retaining him. I think the Black vote is going to drop precipitously. I never saw anything like the support Obama experienced in the Black community - I think it was more intense than the Catholic feeling for JFK. That's vanished.
Several times a week I drive through the predominantly (working) Black neighborhood of Germantown/Mt. Airy (in Philadelphia). Its symbol is a rainbow, so lots of white libs, lots of homosexuals among the Black cops and firefighters. The difference in yard and window signs and bumper stickers is stark when compared to 2008. And if you see someone entering or exiting a home with an Obama sign, dollars to doughnuts, it's a white liberal.
Same with virtually all Black North Philly. Last time around, it was wallpapered with Obama signs. This time around, you see the signs of support, but just not to the same degree. Yup, lots of Black folks will be sitting this one out compared to last time.
We found one in a three county area. Plenty of other signs, mostly republican. My favorite is a variation of the “Fire Lugar” sign in the Spring. More words then can be read driving by but ends with Fire Obama. Have seen many of those. Don’t know who is distributing them.
My favorite sign, which amazingly outnumbers both the pro-Obama and pro-Romney signs - are "Obama...Oy Vey!" And I live in an area that used to be Republican but could now more accurately be described as limosine liberal. Very few Obama signs. Of course, very few Romney signs, but there weren't a ton for McCain either. Plenty of Bush signs in 2000 and 2004. I think conservatives just aren't crazy about Romney but most of us will be voting for him anyway.
THe rednecks around here wouldn’t know the meaning of Oy Vey.... the dems that would read it would think it was a positive comment....very shick (sic)
No one can argue that Romney hasn’t worked like a Trojan for the job.
Watch the actual confidence each shows, Romney sure seems confident and a bit humble, whereas nobama seems flipant, cocky and arrogant (often a defensive mechanism).
We the public never get to see the real polls, the internals and they are not spin BS.
People aren’t putting pro-Romney signs in their yards because they don’t want to be in a position to defend him when he’s elected.
I really find that hard to believe on a large scale. That’s bit of a stretch.
??????? I really find that hard to believe on a large scale. Thats bit of a stretch.
I do have to take that back a bit as Romney signs have begun appearing in my area over just the last two days.
However, I have made it a hobby of mine to study the bumper stickers in parking lots where I can make educated assumptions on the demographic. Just this week I was at the Boy Scout Shop. As it's back to school season and Fall camping trips, the lot was packed in addition to them hosting some sort of training session. Lots of conservative bumper stickers, some of them clearly in your face. Two anti-Obama bumper stickers. Not a single Romney sticker (nor Obama, but that was to be expected).