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Tracking Ohio’s absentee ballot requests - from 3 of Ohio's largest counties (and bluest)
http://moelane.com/2012/09/27/tracking-ohios-absentee-ballot-requests/ ^

Posted on 09/27/2012 6:54:24 PM PDT by profit_guy

Executive summary: the process is ongoing, and what’s being tracked are absentee/early ballot REQUESTS, not turned-in ballots. So it’s not telling us who’s ahead in Ohio; it’s merely telling us what we know of which party’s members are asking for ballots. In other words, it’s a possible measure of voter enthusiasm in Ohio. So…

(Excerpt) Read more at moelane.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 09/27/2012 6:54:29 PM PDT by profit_guy
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To: profit_guy

I think the deadline is Nov. 1........either way the Dems are at 61% of 2008, while the GOP is at 101% of 2008 - so far...


2 posted on 09/27/2012 6:57:00 PM PDT by profit_guy
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To: profit_guy; LS

Earlier today, prominent Freeper LS had a Google doc spreadsheet of absentee ballot requests by county in Ohio. Very informative. Let’s see if I can ping him to post that link here too.


3 posted on 09/27/2012 6:57:25 PM PDT by GreenAccord (Bacon Akbar)
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To: profit_guy

WOW! Just wow!


4 posted on 09/27/2012 7:00:27 PM PDT by mazda77 ("Defeating the Totalitarian Lie" By: Hilmar von Campe. Everybody should read it.)
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To: GreenAccord

Is there a link to that chart? I’d like to take a look at it.


5 posted on 09/27/2012 7:02:04 PM PDT by mrs9x
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To: mrs9x

Type in LS in search under “user” and you should find it.


6 posted on 09/27/2012 7:04:39 PM PDT by hoosiermama (Obama: "Born in Kenya" Lying now or then.)
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To: profit_guy

and 97% of those 61% went to the same three addresses.


7 posted on 09/27/2012 7:06:48 PM PDT by Michael.SF. (Ambassador Stevens is dead and the Chevy Volt is alive!)
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To: profit_guy

I was just able to confirm the deadline is Nov 3. Does anyone have the info for the other counties?

The GOP seems to be much more organized than the corrupt MSM would have us believe. I don’t buy their “resistance is futile” narrative.


8 posted on 09/27/2012 7:07:21 PM PDT by profit_guy
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To: profit_guy

In the article linked, the link to the google docs spreadsheet is on the line under the article title. That’s the same google docs spreadsheet that LS, LdSentinal and Ravi here at FR are analyzing daily.

It’s great to see this info get out into a conservative blog because the data implies a republican voter intensity and a democratic voter lack of enthusiasm that the skewed polls are NOT showing.


9 posted on 09/27/2012 7:09:22 PM PDT by plushaye (Election 2012 Prayer Force)
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To: GreenAccord; plushaye; Ravi; LdSentinal

Well, we. Found out where that spreadsheet cm. from-—should have guessed-—Jay Cost. Fine by me, as I don’t car who assembles the data. But this guy’s approach I a little different, where I tend to stress the gap between D and Rs, he is looking at total turnout % in requests from 2008 to now. But we get to the same point.


10 posted on 09/27/2012 7:10:20 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: profit_guy

Thanks for this.


11 posted on 09/27/2012 7:11:42 PM PDT by outofstyle (Down All the Days)
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To: GreenAccord
This might be it:

tracking-ohios-absentee-ballot-requests

12 posted on 09/27/2012 7:12:27 PM PDT by Michael.SF. (Ambassador Stevens is dead and the Chevy Volt is alive!)
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To: GreenAccord

Same spreadsheet only now I know where it came from. Before, I didn’t have a name. It’’s Jay Cost. Good data guy.


13 posted on 09/27/2012 7:13:33 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

Of all the number-crunching analysts, I trust Jay Cost. I remember him from the 2000 (or 2004?) election prelude and he was just starting out. I followed his analysis a lot back then. He’s got quite big in the conservative blog world now. This is good because he seems dependable. He can get the word about the OH data coming in, because it blows away the assumptions of the polls.


14 posted on 09/27/2012 7:17:42 PM PDT by plushaye (Election 2012 Prayer Force)
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To: profit_guy

With Romney saying he didn’t need to change his campaign, makes me think he’s pulling a Rope-A-Dope on nobama.

Its great info about the absentee vote percentages 2008 to 2012. MSM reporters are as lazy as nobama to not see this too and realize the polls are not showing a true picture, i.e. Ohio.


15 posted on 09/27/2012 7:18:23 PM PDT by X-spurt (It is truly time for ON YOUR FEET or on your knees)
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To: LS

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0


16 posted on 09/27/2012 7:22:28 PM PDT by profit_guy
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To: plushaye

Yes, he made his bones in 04, really didn’t have much to say in 06 or 08, and now is back to his number crunching strength. BTW, isn’t it interesting.that a week after we start discussing this, everyone else picks it up?


17 posted on 09/27/2012 7:25:20 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: X-spurt
With Romney saying he didn’t need to change his campaign, makes me think he’s pulling a Rope-A-Dope on nobama.

Team Romney has been doing polling for nearly two years now and, as the economy has gotten worse, I bet their internals have gotten better and better. We won't know for sure until election day, but I think Romney has had a pretty solid game plan all along.

18 posted on 09/27/2012 7:30:21 PM PDT by Kharis13 (That noise you hear is our Founding Fathers spinning in their graves.)
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To: LS

LS, do you have any thoughts (or info) on how well organized we are on the ground in OH vs. Obama’s team?

And how we stack up to McCain’s efforts?


19 posted on 09/27/2012 7:31:37 PM PDT by profit_guy
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To: profit_guy

I am not sure it’s a winning strategy but what I think the Romney doctrine is in regards to winning the election is this. Ads be damned. There is a certain amount of people who are going to vote for him no matter what. A certain amount who will vote for Obama no matter what. The game is about turnout. I believe that the vast majority of Romney’s “war chest” is going into organizing an amazing GOTV campaign. I don’t think you will see a major ad buy ramp up from the campaign because it’s all about getting boots on the ground to get people to the polls. I don’t know if this is a winning idea (and I think it would be much better if he had a way to get the base excited before attaching himself to this idea) but this is the approach I believe he is taking. It would be nice to see it work. Not because I think he’s a good candidate, not because I think he’d be a good President or save the Idea that is America but because it would be really nice to listen to the drive by’s explain away an Obama loss. I might actually watch CNN again (that night only)


20 posted on 09/27/2012 7:33:46 PM PDT by wiseprince
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To: LS

A lot of readers lurk at FR, from conservatives to DU/DKos types. Jay Cost might be a FReeper. Andrew Breitbart was one. You never know who is reading.

The more this OH absentee data gets out, the better, as the media pressures the Romney campaign to basically give up on Ohio and all the swing states. Give up when they very well could be leading? Ludicrous, isn’t it?


21 posted on 09/27/2012 7:35:31 PM PDT by plushaye (Election 2012 Prayer Force)
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To: profit_guy

It’s county by county. Montgomery Co. Is excellent in calling and walking, setting national records. On the other hand, we don’t have a strong chairman or local Romney chairman. But light years better than McCain and as. Best I. Can tell better than Obama’s.


22 posted on 09/27/2012 7:36:50 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

Thanks for checking in, LS.


23 posted on 09/27/2012 7:39:33 PM PDT by GreenAccord (Bacon Akbar)
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To: wiseprince

Romney needs to hammer his 5-point plan to the voters hard at the debates. And hammer Obama on the Middle East and how it effects our national security (without sounding like he wants to go to war). But after that I agree, it is IMPERATIVE to get the base out, because I truly believe the ‘Undecideds’ are a very low number this time around. Fortunately most of that is volunteer work, and shouldn’t cost too much?


24 posted on 09/27/2012 7:42:15 PM PDT by profit_guy
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To: profit_guy

This is wonderful news.

And it’s even better when you consider that very few Republicans would be likely to request absentee ballots in order to propel Obama into another four-year term, while many Democrats who were fooled into thinking Obama was the Messiah in 2008 may well be angry enough to vote for Romney this year.


25 posted on 09/27/2012 7:50:45 PM PDT by Bluestocking
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To: All

Theories on my part (IMO)

1. GOP enthusiasm.
2. Grass roots since 2008
2a Freedom Works GOTV
2b AFP GOTV
3c Citizens United GOTV and group organizing
3d True the Vote groups
3f Tea Parties of all shapes and sizes
4. Democrat overconfidence
5. 2008 Obama Magic is fading and it’s turning out to be traditional PRECINCT GOTV contest

Who is the SOS in Ohio (R or D)?

Let me tell you of an incident I had in Missouri a few months ago at a political rally (Rally for Common Sense near Jefferson City). I was having a chat with the local/Regional Tea Party Patriots leader which was most informative.

At their booth, they were signing up local volunteers for the defense of Gov. Walker (recall). The TPP would provide airfare, room, board and training for precinct organizing and GOTV. LOTS of people were signing up! According to the TPP person, there were signing up people as far away as California, Florida and Texas....and that’s not counting the out-of-state phone banks!

I can only imagine the scope which these groups (and countless others) are doing behind the scenes to take back our country. If they can do this for a recall election against the liberal bastion of Wisconsin (where the gates of Mordor were in full force) I shudder what they’re doing in the general election.

WE ARE NOT ALONE FREEPERS!!!!


26 posted on 09/27/2012 7:55:53 PM PDT by Kolath
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To: LS

Ha! Should have known. Jay Cost. Excellent numbers guy. I’ll take him over that 538 guy any day. He had great insight in 2004. We are the resistance!


27 posted on 09/27/2012 7:56:52 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: LS

LS, this is concerning, if true:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/27/mitt-romney-ohio-ground-game_n_1921455.html?1348799034


28 posted on 09/27/2012 8:09:25 PM PDT by profit_guy
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To: profit_guy

OK, this from the HuffPo so it is terribly biased off the bat (and intended to be that way). The MSM is out to dispirit and lie and distort and HuffPo is one of the worst.

In 2010 I don’t think there was much ground game but Republicans/Tea Party people would have walked over broken glass to vote. It probably won’t be at the 2010 level this year (or could be?) but the numbers are looking like it will be far from 2008 either..for the Democrats. My gut feel is it’s going to be another strange wave election but the results will be like 2010 for us...


29 posted on 09/27/2012 8:45:07 PM PDT by plushaye (Election 2012 Prayer Force)
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To: profit_guy

How do we know if this info is really accurate?


30 posted on 09/27/2012 9:38:59 PM PDT by zt1053
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To: profit_guy
If you can avoid voting absentee, do. You're asking to have your vote stolen if you mail it in. I'll never forget reading in 2000 about a huge number of absentee ballots from largely Republican areas of Miami being found in trash dumpsters--presumably tossed there by postal workers. Come on, folks, make the extra effort to go to the polling place.


31 posted on 09/27/2012 9:41:30 PM PDT by Cinnamontea
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To: profit_guy; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; Evil Slayer; nutmeg; ...

Poll Ping


32 posted on 09/28/2012 12:33:31 AM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: Kolath
 
 
2008 Obama Magic is fading
 
Good list, but the past tense faded would have been better - maybe even 'defunct'.
 
Back when he was all the rage, I remember seeing Obabbles fanboy crap posted all over Facebook & Myspace pages belonging to suburban soccer moms. They couldn't get enough of him. By the spring of 2010 all that was extinct, not to be seen again. The realization began early that perhaps he wasn't all what he was cracked up to be. All this nonsense presently going on overseas and his (non)response to it has really gotten people torqued off. We've had our property overrun, trashed, our people killed and he shrugs his shoulders; oopsie, "bump in the road". No fire-and-brimstone speeches or remarks standing up on our behalf, no summoning of foreign ambassadors to tell them to get their s%*& straight in regards to us or else it will get straightened out for them - just inconsequential "can't we all get along" sophomoric pablum. Americans aren't used to being attacked, threatened or taunted in such a reckless manner, at this current level of intensity, made even more disconcerting by the fact that the people who are supposed to be handling this sort of thing are more interested in and worried about their own futures and political standing than doing their jobs. Rubbing a lot of citizenry the wrong way, it is.
 
 

33 posted on 09/28/2012 12:44:27 AM PDT by lapsus calami (What's that stink? Code Pink ! ! And their buddy Murtha, too!)
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To: plushaye; profit_guy; LS

You always have lurkers. Can only tell how things are going by talking to folks at local shops, barbers, beauty, bars etc.
For example: My neighbors are not political. This go around they have made sure all family, children and spouses are registered to vote. (8 total) They are voting AGAINST Obama. Papa says the kids can’t use his shooting range unless they follow his advice on this one. lol
He’s Union. Since IN has the right to work law, many seem to be telling union bosses to “shove it” they’ll vote for whomever they please. They can now take their money out of the union PAC.


34 posted on 09/28/2012 2:04:22 AM PDT by hoosiermama (Obama: "Born in Kenya" Lying now or then.)
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To: profit_guy
I don't see why. In Montgomery County, which we will Los but we can't lose too badly, there are three layers at work---the Romney offices (we have two in Dayton alone)---and the county organization, but also the Tea Party/Liberty Groups. They overlap. All do calling, walking. Here, according to one county captain, they had their precinct captains organizational meetings two weeks ago. But these were all organized through the Tea Parties over the summer.

I can only speak for Montgomery, but this captain, who works the downtown, mostly black areas of Dayton thinks it's the DEMS who are disorganized. She said the county (and therefore Romney) organization is superbly organized with detailed readouts on every one of their voters. An absentee voter is WALKED 24 hours after they get a slate card!

Meanwhile the Romney HQ is setting records for calls---second highest in the nation! There have already been more calls and walks than in 2008.

The captain also said that of all the Dems she has called, many have moved, disconnected their phones, or are otherwise gone. She concluded the Dems would have a devil of a time getting out the vote.

There are few bumper stickers or yard signs, anywhere for Romney or Zero. I think this reflects two things. First, at least on Romney's part, a deliberate unconventional campaign emphasizing the Internet and ads---lots of ads. I get:

1) an e-mail from R EVERY DAY

2) a letter or two every week (for at least a month).

The second reason I think Romney in particular is downplaying signs and stickers is that he knows MANY will be afraid to very publicly signal their support. However, we have VERY good proxies in state and local Rep candidates. And you can drive down streets that in 08 were lined with Obama signs and see "Jim Butler" (a state senate rep) on one house after another--- or other GOP candidates. Do you think they will split their tickets? Not many. So to me a Jim Butler sign is a stealth Romney sign.

Finally, the proof is in the pudding. SO FAR, forgetting the polls, the REAL "polling" is taking place in the absentee voting in which Romney appears to be killing it---unless a whole bunch of Rs are voting for Obama. We have a good thread on that. The Rs are hugely outperforming 2008 levels while the Ds are hugely underperforming 2008. So much for +9 D polling!

I can be totally wrong about the numbers, but if they hold up, you have to conclude that, in OH at least, Romney is running a good campaign,

35 posted on 09/28/2012 3:41:47 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS
The second reason I think Romney in particular is downplaying signs and stickers is that he knows MANY will be afraid to very publicly signal their support. However, we have VERY good proxies in state and local Rep candidates. And you can drive down streets that in 08 were lined with Obama signs and see "Jim Butler" (a state senate rep) on one house after another--- or other GOP candidates. Do you think they will split their tickets? Not many. So to me a Jim Butler sign is a stealth Romney sign.

I keep hearing this and I'm just not buying it. Many, if not most, GOP candidates are far more offensive to libs than Romney. I know several people voting Romney at the top of the ticket and then pulling the rest of the levers for Dems.

I think it's that while anti-Obama sentiment is very strong, Romney support is very thin. People aren't putting pro-Romney signs in their yards because they don't want to be in a position to defend him when he's elected. I do think he'll be elected. I agree with you that most conservatives (including myself) will not be splitting the ticket. Anybody but Obama syndrome is widespread.

36 posted on 09/28/2012 4:04:47 AM PDT by old and tired
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To: profit_guy
I think the deadline is Nov. 1........either way the Dems are at 61% of 2008, while the GOP is at 101% of 2008 - so far...

Until they find a tractor-trailer filled with "previously misplaced" Dim votes. Then the MSM can cry out about how the Dim people in charge scared them (vs. going after the fraud) and they should have their hands slapped for making folks think Obama might have actually lost.

37 posted on 09/28/2012 4:22:32 AM PDT by trebb ("If a man will not work, he should not eat" From 2 Thes 3)
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To: trebb

Problem with early balloting numbers like this is that it lets the Dems know EXACTLY how many ballots they need to manufacture. And in Ohio, we can be sure they’re already hard at it.


38 posted on 09/28/2012 4:26:18 AM PDT by mo (If you understand, no explanation is needed. If you don't understand, no explanation is possible.)
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To: old and tired

Could be. All I know is that there are far more Mike Turner (congressman), Jim Butler (state rep) and judge yard signs than Romney. But almost NO Obama signs either.


39 posted on 09/28/2012 4:58:57 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Ravi

The fact that we now know this spreadsheet came from Jay is incredibly reassuring, and it tells me that we are onto something or he wouldn’t waste his time. Whew.


40 posted on 09/28/2012 5:01:01 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: profit_guy
By the way, keep in mind that there is a big division of labor at work here between STATE efforts, COUNTY efforts, ROMNEY's efforts, and the TEA PARTY's efforts.

The Tea Parties and Freedomworks, have, as best I can tell, taken over large parts of the walking and calling functions previously done by a presidential campaign. So no need to double up.

41 posted on 09/28/2012 5:02:45 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS
But almost NO Obama signs either.

Same here (Philly area). And THAT's why I think 0's going to lose. Conservatives are riled up to vote against him but his own side is not so crazy about retaining him. I think the Black vote is going to drop precipitously. I never saw anything like the support Obama experienced in the Black community - I think it was more intense than the Catholic feeling for JFK. That's vanished.

Several times a week I drive through the predominantly (working) Black neighborhood of Germantown/Mt. Airy (in Philadelphia). Its symbol is a rainbow, so lots of white libs, lots of homosexuals among the Black cops and firefighters. The difference in yard and window signs and bumper stickers is stark when compared to 2008. And if you see someone entering or exiting a home with an Obama sign, dollars to doughnuts, it's a white liberal.

Same with virtually all Black North Philly. Last time around, it was wallpapered with Obama signs. This time around, you see the signs of support, but just not to the same degree. Yup, lots of Black folks will be sitting this one out compared to last time.

42 posted on 09/28/2012 5:37:47 AM PDT by old and tired
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To: old and tired

We found one in a three county area. Plenty of other signs, mostly republican. My favorite is a variation of the “Fire Lugar” sign in the Spring. More words then can be read driving by but ends with Fire Obama. Have seen many of those. Don’t know who is distributing them.


43 posted on 09/28/2012 6:11:22 AM PDT by hoosiermama (Obama: "Born in Kenya" Lying now or then.)
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To: hoosiermama
We found one in a three county area. Plenty of other signs, mostly republican. My favorite is a variation of the “Fire Lugar” sign in the Spring. More words then can be read driving by but ends with Fire Obama.

My favorite sign, which amazingly outnumbers both the pro-Obama and pro-Romney signs - are "Obama...Oy Vey!" And I live in an area that used to be Republican but could now more accurately be described as limosine liberal. Very few Obama signs. Of course, very few Romney signs, but there weren't a ton for McCain either. Plenty of Bush signs in 2000 and 2004. I think conservatives just aren't crazy about Romney but most of us will be voting for him anyway.

44 posted on 09/28/2012 6:17:16 AM PDT by old and tired
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To: old and tired

THe rednecks around here wouldn’t know the meaning of Oy Vey.... the dems that would read it would think it was a positive comment....very shick (sic)


45 posted on 09/28/2012 6:43:01 AM PDT by hoosiermama (Obama: "Born in Kenya" Lying now or then.)
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To: Kharis13

No one can argue that Romney hasn’t worked like a Trojan for the job.

Watch the actual confidence each shows, Romney sure seems confident and a bit humble, whereas nobama seems flipant, cocky and arrogant (often a defensive mechanism).

We the public never get to see the real polls, the internals and they are not spin BS.


46 posted on 09/28/2012 6:47:06 AM PDT by X-spurt (It is truly time for ON YOUR FEET or on your knees)
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To: old and tired

People aren’t putting pro-Romney signs in their yards because they don’t want to be in a position to defend him when he’s elected.

???????

I really find that hard to believe on a large scale. That’s bit of a stretch.


47 posted on 09/28/2012 6:44:14 PM PDT by Kolath
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To: Kolath
People aren’t putting pro-Romney signs in their yards because they don’t want to be in a position to defend him when he’s elected.

??????? I really find that hard to believe on a large scale. That’s bit of a stretch.

I do have to take that back a bit as Romney signs have begun appearing in my area over just the last two days.

However, I have made it a hobby of mine to study the bumper stickers in parking lots where I can make educated assumptions on the demographic. Just this week I was at the Boy Scout Shop. As it's back to school season and Fall camping trips, the lot was packed in addition to them hosting some sort of training session. Lots of conservative bumper stickers, some of them clearly in your face. Two anti-Obama bumper stickers. Not a single Romney sticker (nor Obama, but that was to be expected).

48 posted on 09/29/2012 7:07:48 AM PDT by old and tired
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