Skip to comments.Military Conflict 'Looms' Between China And Japan
Posted on 09/27/2012 7:11:25 PM PDT by blam
Military Conflict 'Looms' Between China And Japan
War between China and Japan looms, with neither power willing to back down over a disputed chain of islands, expert warns.
Yan Xuetong who has warned that unless one side backs down, there could be a repeat of the Falklands Conflict in Asia
By Malcolm Moore, Beijing
September 27, 2012
The spat over the Diaoyu or Senkaku islands has escalated dramatically in the past month with violent protests across China.
But with a national election approaching in Japan, and a change of leadership in China, politicians on both sides have refused to step back from the brink, afraid that they will appear weak.
"There is a danger of China and Japan having a military conflict," said Yan Xuetong, one of China's most influential foreign policy strategists, and a noted hawk.
"One country must make a concession. But I do not see Japan making concessions. I do not see either side making concessions. Both sides want to solve the situation peacefully, but neither side can provide the right approach," he added.
He warned that unless one side backs down, there could be a repeat of the Falklands Conflict in Asia.
Related Articles China claims disputed islands are 'sacred territory' 26 Sep 2012 Senkaku dispute: Japanese water cannon attack on Taiwanese fishing boats 25 Sep 2012 Japanese earthquake recovery money going to whaling 25 Sep 2012 Water cannon battle in Senkaku dispute 25 Sep 2012
"Generally speaking, according to the theory of international relations, unless one country makes concessions to the other, the escalation of a conflict between two countries will not stop until there is a military clash, like between the UK and Argentina," he said.
He added: "China takes a very tolerant policy elsewhere, with smaller powers.
(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...
Japan had better not count on the 0bama regime upholding our alliance with them.
Maybe they should just divide them down the middle?
While it would be nice they wouldn't need nearly as much US help as you'd think.
Nope, not muslim, therefore no support.
I get the sneaking suspicion that JSDF will be able to make it a rough way to go for the Chinese.
Even if there’s no screaming at the diplomatic level, this is still serious.
We might see great change at the Constitutional level in Japan soon, and we might see the beginning of an arms race.
It’ll be interesting to see how the quantity vs. quality match up goes. China needs to kill off all the excess males they have. A war preferably involving land battles would be a good way to do that.
I agree. I think this is the opening some Japanese want, to push for once again having a real military and changes to their constitution, rather than just having a token self-defense force. Although it is a formidable self-defense force. One problem is their young men would rather play video games than fight, and it looks like the Chinese men are tougher and spoiling for a fight.
Send that new carrier out, you Chinese doofuses. The water is deep and cold.
My take on that part of the world is that Japan is getting very big for their britches as of late.
The people of Taiwan are simple honorable folk who try to keep their noses clean and fish to survive. Therefore this makes me really dislike Japan very much.
If China only had Dung-Shou-Boener as their leader, Japan could walk all over them and nab the islands for good.
But I guess that’s the case here.
A solution might be to send those Chinese guys some of those Japanese love dolls, might cool their ardor a bit.
Who would we side with? Japan is ‘only’ an ally but China owns us - has us by the green and spendables to paraphrase.
Japan angered the world by daring to not stifle the nuclear plant genie. Be easy for Obama to point out the lack of popular support for them. The greens hate them for Fukushima and that would be the populars in the Obama world.
China could threaten to dump our bonds. They already won’t buy any more because of the QE programs so they’d probably like to find a reason to do some retributive dumping anyway.
What makes you think the people of Japan are not simple honorable folk who also try to keep their noses clean and fish to survive? Lots of Japanese are simple fishermen. Lots of Taiwanese work in electronics factories. Your comment seems racist against the Japanese. Also, the Japanese have administered those islands for many decades, except for the years between WWII and 1972 when the USA held them before returning them to Japan. Have the Taiwanese ever exercised a claim on the islands other than in recent years?
For atheist regimes, Communist countries sure do have a lot of “sacred” territories.
Problem is, the Japanese make many components in China! I think the Chinese guys are more interested in invading and taking real live love dolls. Japan is in for a real mess if Chinese land on their soil.
The PRC is flexing it’s Naval muscles now especially since they launched their first carrier. Testing Japan at Senkaku Islands, then the P.I. and Viet Nam at the Paracels.....then Taiwan; two of which are US allies and one is a wannabe.
Then the Chinese need to remember the Divine Wind has visited them before and may do so again.
“While it would be nice they wouldn’t need nearly as much US help as you’d think.”
Wouldn’t it be ironic if we did a reverse Doolittle raid-bomb the Chicoms and land on any available space in JAPAN?;)
I hate to be a broken record but boy people have to educate themselves better.
The Japanese Naval Self Defense force is enormous, well armed, and very well trained. Arguably the second most powerful Navy in the world- hardly a "token."
I did say they are a formidable self-defense force. Saying “token” was sarcasm.
Exactly. The PLAN is relatively new and extremely inexperienced. Just building a bunch of ships doesn’t mean that their crews know anything about naval combat.
The Chinese have never been a naval power in history - NEVER. Japan has ALWAYS had excellent navies. (Being an island tends to do that.)
I would expect the Japanese to teach the Chinese a naval lesson that they would never forget.
Hell, the Chicoms can’t even take Taiwan. Good luck with Japan.
For heaven’s sake, DON’T WAKE GODZILLA!
Yes, it’s sizable.
They made their anti-sub warfare capability after WW2 very robust by the 1960s and 70s, but I haven’t looked lately.
JGDF = JGSDF
Japan would lose by the sheer chinese numbers
The PRC is flexing its Naval muscles now especially since they launched their first carrier.
Maybe the Japanese fishing ships can lure the big Chinese carrier into shallow waters where it can run aground......hahahahaha.
Japan is imperialist lately, and not just with Taiwan and China. I have good friends in Taiwan. They don't care about territory, just surviving.
And you are correct. I don't like the Japanese. Ever read some personal accounts of those who were POWs there? I recommend a book called Unbroken to learn about the Japanese.
That story encompasses an aspect of the American experience during World War II the cruelty of the Japanese that, in an era of Toyotas and Sonys and Hideki Matsui, has been almost entirely forgotten.
I agree, the Japanese were brutal in WWII. I had great conversations in my youth with survivors of the Bataan death march, and Russian survivors of death camps in China under Japanese rule. However, the islands are rightfully Japanese, and China lost any claim when they ceded any claims after their defeat to Japan in their 1894 war. China is the one being imperialistic these days, as Japan became peaceful after WWII (getting your behind whooped tends to do that). If you want to back in history, why not go further back. The Japanese remember when Chinese Mongols invaded with 4000 ships and nearly 140,000 men more than 700 years ago, and the Japanese were nearly defeated before storms drove the attackers off Japanese beaches. I don’t think the Japanese are interested in invading China this time around; rather, it is the Chinese who are acting belligerent.
Its amazing that ~ 80 years ago that little Japan successfully invaded Chinese Main-land with little or weak opposition, when you look at the two countries today,
Further, this dispute also involves the Taiwanese, at a fairly high level, with several Japanese and Taiwanese ships firing water cannon at each other, recently.
Just kinda made me mad when they Japanese fired water cannons on their simple little fishing boats.
I do think it is Japan being imperialistic. If you follow this back you will see that China was interested in sharing the fishing grounds with everyone a month ago. And Japan just attempted a land grab with an island that South Korea believes to be theirs as well.
Read some of the news from back there a month or so on this and you will read that China is not being provocative.
I have no great love for China, btw, just my friends in Taiwan, but it is there.
let me see if I can find some of what convinced me to share with you.I have been following this closely because I was just invited to Tapei and almost went a few weeks ago.
Well you are entitled to your opinion, as much as I am to mine. However, the facts are on Japan’s side. Japan has administered the islands. China ceded any claims after their defeat to Japan in the 1894 war. That alone should be enough. The USA administered the islands after the defeat of Japan in WWII. China made no claims for the islands, until the discovery of oil and natural gas fields. The USA returned the islands to Japanese rule in 1972. China is making noise now, to distract their people from economic woes. Taiwan is jumping on the bandwagon, because they think they are the rightful rulers of China (ain’t happening anytime soon). The Taiwanese fishing boats had no business going into traditional Japanese waters, and Japan was within their rights to remind them. There, clear enough?
All agreed to except the Taiwanese have been fishing those waters for a long time and just now encountered the resistance.
No it doesn’t. Not unless Pres. Obama lets Iran get a nuke. All bets are off then, and we’ll finally see if Japan has been secretly building nukes for just this occasion .
Wait, actually Japan just purchased these islands last week from a private owner. Until then everything was fine. I had forgotten about that.
Not sure what is more scary...Iran or the fact that fish are so important suddenly in the waters off China.
The Taiwanese fishing boats were accompanied by military gunboats from Taiwan, which was an aggressive action for simply fishing. The Japanese showed restraint by only using water hoses on the fishing boats.
Yes, Japan purchasing the islands from the Japanese private owner was a catalyst. Guess they wanted to keep the owner from selling to the highest offer! Plus he maybe also had a gun to his head to make a deal (been watching too many spy movies). No one knows why this happened, other than the fuss over oil and gas potential there.
I do not think the chicoms will back down. If the chicoms back down in the case of the Senkakus with the Japanese, it sets bad precedence against other claims the chicoms have, to include but not limited to, the Scarborough Shoal (Philippines), Spratleys (numerous countries), and off-shore oil blocks (Vietnam). It is to the chicoms benefit to make an example of the Japanese for other South China Sea countries to ponder before making counter-claims or standing up against them. I think the chicoms prefer to bully every claimant individually than deal with them collectively and this might include having the US stay in the sidelines so they can get away with this strategy. The ball is the the Japanese court; interesting to see what their next move might be.
This will end badly, very badly. China has nukes. Japan doesn’t.
Yes, China does have nukes. Japan also has ABM capability, so there is some level of defense against that threat.
Should Japan be humiliated and forced to back down, or worse yet, suffer a devastating defeat, while the US fails to back them, there would probably be great pressure for them to develop nuclear weapons for protection to counter China. After all, they would not be able to count on the US “nuclear umbrella” if they couldn’t count on The US in a conventional conflict. Of course an arms race would mean that defense contractors would be able to readily peddle their wares, but these things rarely end well. However, I’d like for them to be able to handle this without the US - we simply can’t afford it. Our forces are stretched to the breaking point and we really don’t have the money.
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