Skip to comments.Flashback: Rasmussen Most Accurate Pollster in 2008
Posted on 09/28/2012 10:36:22 AM PDT by Perdogg
A look at other media polls' performance in 08 is especially illuminating, given the current questions surrounding their polls.
NBC/WSJ C Marist D ABC/WaP0 D+ Gallup D CBS/NYT D- Reuters F
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
....so what does this poll say for today?
Thanks for posting this article! Also, a but off topic but let’s not forget what Hillary Clinton said back in 2008
“Fox News has been the most fair news network during the 2008 election”
Under the most favorable conditions, there’s no way Obama duplicates his results from 2008. Among several things, (1) the white-guilt thing won’t work this time, (2) his record has been awful and (3) unless there’s been a noticeable change for the better (and there hasn’t been one), many voters simply get tired of whoever’s in the White House and seek change. The best I see Obama doing is a statistical tie. My prediction is that Romney, despite running a terrible campaign, will win by 1 to 2 million votes.
I’m going to throw out my theory on Rasmussen and see if anyone thinks it’s plausible.
Rasmussen is the most accurate, but they’re hedging their bets. Since all other polls are heavily overpolling Democrats, if they do it a little, they can cover themselves in case Obama does win.
If they says it’s a tossup, if Romney wins they’re still closest, so they retain bragging right.
Think of it this way...if three people are told to guess a number between 1 and 10, and the first two pick 2 and 3, even if you’re pretty sure the number is 8, you’d pick 4, right?
You can tell me if you think I’m full of it. I can take it.
You’re very convincing. I hope you’re right. I pray to GOD that Romney survives the upcoming AMBUSH by a conspiring 0bamamedia during the debates.
I think it would be SOOO funny if 0 wins the popular vote and Romney pulls of an electoral win.
On my local early morning news, there was a segment which claimed Obama has almost all the electoral numbers he needs, while Romney is far off the mark. It’s an ABC affiliate, and the story was a national one they linked to, so I have a healthy degree of skepticism. However, I wonder if someone better informed than I could speak to the issue.
Better yet, there should be a close state that needs to go to the Supreme court and Sotomeyer should put Romney over the top in a 5-4 decision
In the late summer of 1864, Abraham Lincoln was so convinced he wasn't even going to get his party's nomination that he named a Democrat as vice president. Yet within a few months, he was so far ahead that his opponent basically dropped out.
So ABC should be ashamed of itself, esp if you follow our data thread here on OH early voting. No evidence whatsoever that Obama can take OH. That might change, it can change, but SO FAR it hasn't.
I do remember those 2004 exit polls. This time around I’m not as quick to fall for the BS, but I couldn’t recall seeing any discussion of the electoral numbers on FR to date. Thanks for your response.
Just my opinion-—don’t have the evidence yet to back it up-—but I’ll be pretty surprised if Romney doesn’t win OH by 2-3 points. And I think FL is in the bag, as is NC, and CO. I’m worried about VA, ONLY because of Goode. If he weren’t on the ballot, Romney would be up five.
I’m in Virginia. I haven’t seen any ads for Goode, and probably won’t, but i actually saw one last night for Gary Johnson.
“I’ll just remind everyone that in 2004, as late as mid-day on election day they were all claiming based on “exit polls” that Kerry had won”
yep! roger that! i remember the drive by’s all over the US pointing to a fairly easy victory after the exit polling showed sKerry dominating .....NOT!
2008 is ancient history.
Oh, by the way, I recall there being an election in 2010, and none of the models I’ve read about seem to be taking any notice of those turn-out numbers.
Romney shouldn’t be this goddamn close to Obama in the polls! He should be way ahead. If this moron can’t convince Americans to vote for him this late in the game, then I say that Romney is a patsy. Picked by someone to lose so that Obummer stays in the WH.
Romney is denigrated by the liberal mainstream media in a unrelenting fashion. If the media were even remotely balanced he would be ahead by at least 20 points in the polls. This isn't about Romney's competence, he is by far and beyond Obama on that scale ... it's about the media foisting their candidate on America for another 4 years. If that happens this country is totally f***ed ... totally. It will never recover.