Skip to comments.Update: OH Absentees (Three more counties added, and, yes, looking good)
Posted on 09/28/2012 2:20:21 PM PDT by LS
In addition to the numbers posted this morning, a few later additions: Cuyahoga (heavily Dem Cleveland) county is STILL underperforming, coming in at 6% under 2008 levels.
Hamilton (Cincinnati) is just under 2:1 Rs, a net gain of just under 7 points for the Republicans over 08.
Franklin (Columbus) which went for Obama by 21(!) shows a very small but steadily increasing R lead in total votes (+5893) for a significant swing (+9 over 08 absentees, +26 overall for Rs).
Summit: important county near Cleveland, 1/4m voters, went for Obama by almost 18 points: Rs only 1300 back in total votes, or 5% difference (in 08 they lost by almost three to one).
Hardin: GOP had a 1400-1100 lead in 08. It's already three to one Rs, and about one third of total GOP ballots are in. Dems down in total requests by 2500 (!)
Logan: no 2008 data (McCain won by 26.5) Rs up four to one.
Pickaway: Rs up almost two to one---lost by 1000 absentee votes in 08 but went overall for McCain by 21.5.
Washington: Rs up two to one, absentees in 08 were three to two (McCain won by 15.5).
I stumbled upon a site talking about early voting. Someone had posted some of the same numbers and the response was snappy, like “don’t talk about these early numbers” and “wait until Obama voters pull it out”.
Some people are getting a tad nervous out there. ;)
But But how can this be..the media who never lies and is ALWAYS honest has been saying that Romney lost Ohio/sarc
The more the media makes up these fake BS polls the more people will see right through their lies and go to the polls..the ONLY reason why the media is reporting these lies is because of what your seeing right here, the Dem enthusiasm is down the toilet
We’re assuming we’re getting the truth....I think there’s a plan....for a last minute run by Dems to the polling place. In other words, we’re getting set up. Kinda like Timmy and his marker & board....
Is there a comparable guy like you in VA and FL? Great stuff!
Either the polls, including Ras, are way off, or there are a lot of Republicans voting for Obama and telling pollsters they are voting for Obama. What was Ras’ last set of numbers for Ohio?
Which seems more likely?
Polls are off. Less than 10 percent of voters are answering them anyways. Go by ballots, registration, and where canidates are running ads. Look at their schedules.
Romneys in PA for a reason.
I’m working with Jet Jaguar on the ping list. If you asked to be on, but aren’t here yet, he’s on Alaska time and will get to you. Please be patient.
When you look back on the past 10 months a lot of this makes sense now. For the life of me I couldn’t understand why Obama has refused to tact to the center ala Clinton. He has known for a long time that his base is depressed and thus he had only one option. That option was to do everything possible to motivate the 47%. ie: amnesty, gay marriage, no to pipeline, tax the rich ect.
Only 9% answering poll questions in 2012, according to PEW
Problem with that theory is you can see the tally of the total requested ballots. They ain’t there for the Dems. No, there’s no conspiracy. There is a complete UNREPORTED major shift going on that the drive-bys absolutely do not want to touch, because their entire narrative falls apart.
And if-—big if-—these percentages in OH hold up, PA will be Republican, and probably MI too.
It is usually the Democrats that vote early, the Republicans wait until election day.
If you see early voting close, expect a blowout by the GOP.
We know that they’re nervous because there have been three stories already about early/absentee voting and “not to worry” and “Dems will come on in the end,” yadayada.
hope it doesnt let demos know how much more they need to cheat
Yes, Ras is off too. His baseline of about 2.5% to 4% Ds over Rs is incorrect, but less incorrect than the rest of them.
You’re doing the Lord’s work.
No, but Jay Cost may do this same thing in FL, NC, and VA. Problem in VA is they don’t do party registration, so it’s tough to tell. There, you could only go by percentages of ballots returned by county (red v blue) based on 08.
LS...Mahalo for your work! Would you paste me up on your ping list please.
Exactly, and it’s what these numbers are showing. Look at how many Rs are voting and returning ballots compared to Ds, and it’s across the board.
LOL. No, only the Lord does His work. Right now, I’m just trying to save the freakin’ country.
Jet, please add Kahuna
Never throw in the towel until after election day. Then find the next candidate to support.
One more to watch: Clark County, one of the swingiest of swing counties in Ohio. McCain beat Brak 51/47 there in 2008, Bush beat kerry 51/49, and Bush and Gore tied at 50 in 2000. As of today, the GOP has an edge of about 15 points in declared absentee ballot requests, though a large number of requests appear to be unaffiliated. If the GOP has a signifcant edge in Clark County, it bodes well for the party’s chances in the rest of Ohio.
The DemocRAT modus operandi is to wait until the last minute to see how many fraudulent votes they need to win, then miraculously “find” them in some precinct captain’s trunk.
If a Democratic presidential candidate can’t hold a big rally in the middle of Cleveland, Ohio, a month before an election, one that attracts at least 30,000 cheering union members, their families, and members of the candidate’s ethnic or racial group, the Democratic party is over.
Now that even Obama’s own pollsters know from absentee-ballot-request data that he’s in trouble in the must-win-by-a-large-margin City of Cleveland in the must-win State of Ohio, why is Obama not in Cleveland energizing 30,000 supporters to go to the polls?
The only reasonable answer is because he can’t attract 30,000 supporters in downtown Cleveland even if his campaign had started trying to round people up a month ago, or he would be in Cleveland today rallying his troops to try to save his campaign.
“Summit: important county near Cleveland, 1/4m voters, went for Obama by almost 18 points: “
Dat’s me! I haven’t seen one yard sign yet, and only one pickup truck with an O sticker. It had Grateful Dead stickers too. Brain dead owner!
Did you folks in Ohio hear Rush Limbaugh today say that, IIRC, that there are fewer voter registrations in Ohio this year compared to ‘08, and that 44% of that drop is in (”Rat-infested) Cleveland alone? What’s up with that? Could it be that the Cleveland dropoff in registrations is due mostly to the fact that there is a lot less fraud this time around? (Seem to recall that voter registration fraud was rampant in Cleveland in ‘08 when the then Dem SOS condoned it.)He also said that there are marked dropoffs in Democratic registrations in several other swing states around the country. Yet the phony lying media is telling us that “Osama” Obama is ahead just about everywhere.
Here in Massachusetts, a state that gave Obama one of his largest margins of victory in 2008, the enthusiasm for Obama is tepid at best. Yes, I see a few Obama 2012 bumper stickers out there but not a lot and definitely not like it was in 2008. I have not seen a SINGLE Obama lawn sign yet Romney/Ryan lawn signs are beginning to show up. Though I haven't seen a single Romney bumper sticker - probably because people don't want their cars keyed.
Now I'm not projecting Obama to lose here but Romney definitely has the hometown factor working for him and I think it's going to be surprisingly close - especially with the Brown/Warren senate race heating up. I think Warren has turned off so many people that Romney might benefit as a result.
With respect to presidential races, I always say to gauge the true state of the race, look to where the campaigns are spending their time and money. Romney is in PA and CO while Obama was recently in WI and VA. That tells you a lot right there.
But I'm also looking at the candidates themselves. Obama and his wife do not seem buoyant and happy these days. They are looking dour. And what's up with Obama doing late night and daytime TV talk shows? If he felt he had his base locked up, he would have no need to waste time with that nonsense. If he felt comfortable about re-election, he'd be focusing on looking presidential and he'd meet with Netanyahu instead of Letterman. Doing this kind of media is degrading for a presidential candidate, never mind a sitting president - a form of desperation. (BTW, I knew McCain/Palin were doomed when they started showing up on SNL.)
On the other hand, Romney, while no Ronald Reagan, is looking poised and confident despite the media barrage that is trying to portray his campaign as faltering and dead in the water. Even many on our side are getting nervous and even angry at this perceived lack of intensity on Romney's part. Through all this, Romney is playing it cool and not showing any signs of panic. It is for that reason that I believe Romney's internals must show him doing much better than what the skewed public polls are stating. What other reason could there be for this quiet confidence?
Therefore I can only conclude that Romney's people are focusing on fundraising for the final push and preparing Romney for the upcoming debates (which are very critical). If Romney performs strongly on Wednesday's debate and comes out of it unscathed, I think you will then see Obama's campaign start to panic and it will be game on.
Romney has a lot of campaign cash left to spend and the longer he waits to spend it, the more concentration power it will have. Remember that campaign money won't do him any good on November 7th so you know they are going to spend it between now and then.
I think Hugh Hewitt just used your stuff on his program. That and the reduced registration in urban Ohio areas.
Click on the above link and hover the mouse over Clevland and it will pull up 2010 Gov race results. Look at the percentages and number of votes.
Above is a link for 2008 presidential election. Look at the percentage and number of votes.
Huge difference two years ago and that difference is still there today.
I expect the same result for 2012 out of this county. The loss in Dem votes alone in this county coule be enough to flip the state.
It only took Obama 2 years to destroy his own support in that dem stronghold. Yeah he built that.
It’s the inner cities where DemocRAT voter fraud comes from, so the fact that Cleveland is down means Romney wins Ohio, which means he wins the election. By a landslide.
I like where you’re going (I predicted a clear win for Dubya in 2004 because he and Kerry were spending all their time in states Dubya had lost in 2000) but my concern about Penn. is that it’s been Lucy with the football for Republican nominees over and over.
That said, if we have a good chance in PA, we have a fantastic chance in the big three: OH, VA and FL.
I think you’re right.
I was reading about clark county. Swing county in swing state. Yet another optimistic sign.
I think that a major reason for media screwing with the polls is to create a “horserace” between the two sides by picking up the underdog for a while before returning to reality.
This year, Romney has been impervious to Obama’s assaults but he got a phantom bounce from the DNC Convention. It seems to have quickly evaporated because of the Libya fiasco, so suddenly the media is pumping it up insanely with very skewed ratios of D/R/I.
Now, if Obama does very well in the debates, then he can be carried along a lot longer by the media. If Romney shows up well in the debates—if he just ties Obama by showing himself to be intelligent and able to hold his ground against the POTUS—then there will be the “comeback kid” effect and the polls will evaporate for Obama.
To a great extent the current inflated polls are wishful thinking by the media, because the Debates will seal the deal one way or the other. I am a bit nervous about these debates, since it’s the one thing that might save Obama, especially since the debate format and the questions will try to favor him. Certainly the media will proclaim an Obama victory either way, but unless BHO knocks Mitt out conclusively, I think that this race goes back to being a referendum on Obama’s dreadful record and that the American people will judge him and vote him a LOSER.
Not in OH. Usually, the Cleveland ballots come in early, and Cincy comes in late-—at least that’s my recollection of 04.
My extrapolation from the absentee drop off was that Cuyahoga would have a 68,000 D shortfall in registrations.
One small correction and I hope I didn’t accidentally mislead with terminology: these are absentee ballot REQUESTS, not returned ballots. The actual ballots are not mailed until 10/2. But the numbers don’t change. It’s hard to imagine someone requesting an absentee ballot and not sending it back in.
I think their goal all along has been to discredit a Romney win and challenge its legitimacy as they did with the Bush "selected not elected" crap. They are trying to undermine his presidency five months out.
Over 90% of requested ballots are returned.
I’m seeing the same stuff you are.
The good news is that these numbers are only ballots requested and/or returned so far.... by party affiliation. They don’t reflect who was voted for. They can’t tally those until election day. Too many are assuming a D ballot is voting Obama. There are lots of registered Dems who have no intention of voting for the master of disaster.
I know lots of “registered Democrats”; including me, who are actually conservatives. I don’t know a single self-proclaimed liberal who is a registered Republican. Registered Republican ballots can be counted on to go R....Registered Dem ballots.....not so much. I smell blowout...
Those of us who watched the recent Olympic long distance running races, saw how the winning runner would often lay back off the lead and then turn it on in the home stretch. Being in 3rd or 4th place at the 3/4 mark in the race was not unsettling to them because they knew their strategy and had confidence in their plan. They were not insecure and had to be in the lead the whole time.
Romney knows that the attention span of the typical American voter is less than the lifespan of a fruit fly and I believe is saving the best stuff for the final push.