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Tracking Ohio’s absentee ballot requests--THE POLLS ALL WRONG--AWESOME NUMBERS
RedState ^ | 09-28-2012 | Moe Lane

Posted on 09/28/2012 3:56:03 PM PDT by GilGil

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To: GilGil

Here’s what I look at when I read the polls - Independents and who they’ll vote for. Right now, the vast majority of polls show Independents going for Romney.

Polls can only guesstimate what party turnout will be. We can prove them wrong by coming out in record numbers.


51 posted on 09/28/2012 4:43:41 PM PDT by Jaguarmike
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To: Windflier

We will win without your vote. Stay home with your ideals.


52 posted on 09/28/2012 4:45:55 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: GilGil
If you do not do everything you can to get Romney elected all your wasted energy and hand wringing about whether Romney will do what he said he would is just that wasted energy.

You misunderstand. I'm not wringing my hands about Romney OR Obama. That's why I can't be cowed, badgered, shamed, frightened, or coerced into voting for either of them.

I don't vote for liberals. Period.

I know you can do this without me. Have a blast, but I'll be here to remind you that some of us kept our heads when so many were throwing their core values over the railing to support this weasel.

53 posted on 09/28/2012 4:47:21 PM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: Jaguarmike

Right now assume Romney is winning because he is!


54 posted on 09/28/2012 4:47:24 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: GilGil
Then again you could be totally wrong and not know it.

Exactly! But I'm not going to make assumptions just because we have the worst President in recent American history in the WH right now. No assumptions needed for me to know that the MSM skews polls for democrats. It's fact. We've seen it before. But I have seen nothing that shows me that Romney's ahead of Obama therefore I cannot conclude he's winning. That's not really being wrong, it's being realistic.

55 posted on 09/28/2012 4:51:32 PM PDT by tsowellfan
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To: GilGil
We will win without your vote. Stay home with your ideals.

Wrong again. I'm not staying home, and I'm not voting for ANY liberal.

By the way, you sure seem wound up about all this. Since my vote doesn't matter, and you're going to win this thing without me, I don't know why you even bother responding.

56 posted on 09/28/2012 4:51:37 PM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: Windflier

Duly noted. Thank you for being clear and getting out of the way. We can definitely do this without your help and Romney will win. Once he has won we will have a totally different game. At that time we will count on you to armchair quarterback again and tell us how all is hopeless and the sky is falling. What a treat that will be!


57 posted on 09/28/2012 4:51:41 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: RIghtwardHo
We will indeed see come the morning of Nov. 7. But it is a salient fact that in cases where the internals of these polls are available they are selecting as their representative sample a much higher proportion of Democrats than was even the case in 2008 (their high water mark). These proportions are not done randomly. They ask the party affiliation before measuring out how many of which are to be used for the sample.

I don't think early voting and absentee ballot application numbers by party have enough of a history to necessarily draw conclusions. But when a poll is using as a base a higher percentage of Democrats than was true even back in 2008 it is definitely skewed.

Somebody brought up a reason for their doing this which I had not thought of before. Obama's campaign, according to many reports, has been far behind in the cash take they expected and as a result they have been running into the red just as the most critical part of the campaign is beginning. So making sure Obama would appear to be winning could have the effect of increasing their take from "let's bet on the winner" contributors while putting a damper on Romney's funding. Makes sense.

58 posted on 09/28/2012 4:52:48 PM PDT by katana (Just my opinions)
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To: tsowellfan

You are assuming that you have seen everything. Maybe, just maybe you are simply not in the know and way behind the curve and just maybe you could be 100% with your assumptions. It is possible.


59 posted on 09/28/2012 4:53:56 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: GilGil
We can definitely do this without your help

Yeah. You're repeating yourself now.

Once he has won we will have a totally different game.

You'll have no game. Romney and his sycophant minions in Congress are going to do what they want, and you won't have a single say in the matter. I'll be here to remind you of this day when Romney is stabbing your heart out.

60 posted on 09/28/2012 4:54:45 PM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: MNJohnnie

That chart says it all. The bias this time around will set a new record.


61 posted on 09/28/2012 4:55:27 PM PDT by Repeal 16-17 (Let me know when the Shooting starts.)
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To: tsowellfan

I remember that but I dont remember where I saw it..but yes its true..I think they even put ads on Craigslist..they were paid between 10-12 bucks an hour to go on Conservative blogs and say how its not worth voting, you already lost, but say it in a way that makes people feel like that person was one of them, even though they were paid trolls. I dont care what ANY poll says I will go vote and hope for the best..but its very easy to spot a troll, always goes on the same kind of threads, always says the same thing, election over, better luck next time blaa blaa blaa..they think they are fooling us but they are the fools


62 posted on 09/28/2012 4:56:24 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: katana

Here is something on Medved’s show today. The hang up rate on polling calls is now 90% when it used to be 70% a few years ago. The pollsters are now concerned that this is creating a distortion because so few people want to be polled.


63 posted on 09/28/2012 4:56:40 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: Windflier

If all is hopeless, what are you doing to prepare for a total collapse? Are you leaving the country. Are you stockpiling supplies or is your only reason for existing is to tell people why they will fail? I see a pattern here.


64 posted on 09/28/2012 4:59:34 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: GilGil
Maybe, just maybe you are simply not in the know and way behind the curve

AND if I am, my statements based on reality would more likely get some of those concerned to pull our a few of their hard earned dollars and send them to the Romney campaign or even volunteer for the cause than your statement that says put your money back in that wallet, take a cruise because Romney's got this thing beat.

The last thing we want to see is a picture of GilGil sitting in Tom Dashle's chair in that empty room election night because this is not an election between Romney and Obama - it's Obama vs us (the American People).

65 posted on 09/28/2012 5:00:22 PM PDT by tsowellfan
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To: Windflier

Nothing in life is ever perfect. Certain nothing in politics ever is. Your sort of 100% was writing articles about how Reagan “betrayed the Conservative movement” in 1986

Now you all want to claim him as your political god father.

Reagan would tell you, 85% of something in politics is way better then 100% of nothing.

We don’t have the luxury of this childish political petulant any longer. With the old Democrats you could always rely on the fact that they too were Americans who wanted to see this country thrive. That is no longer the case.

Even the most welded shut mind should be able to see the last 4 years have been an epic disaster for the USA. I suggest rather then cling to your sour grapes because your candidate of choice did not win the primary some of you, finally, grow up.


66 posted on 09/28/2012 5:02:23 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: MNJohnnie
We are at the tipping point.

I heartily agree. I was ABR during the primaries, but happily ABO now. If Ronmney does not honor conservative principles when elected - and he will be elected - then he, too, will be on the receiving end of a momentum not in his favor. One step at a time.

67 posted on 09/28/2012 5:03:09 PM PDT by Fester Chugabrew (ABO to the core.)
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To: GilGil
The hang up rate on polling calls is now 90% when it used to be 70% a few years ago. The pollsters are now concerned that this is creating a distortion because so few people want to be polled.

Think about this one. With the proliferation of personal cellphones, many people are disconnecting their landlines altogether. I haven't had a landline in my house for three years now. Everybody in my household has a personal cellphone.

Speaking for myself, I only answer incoming calls from numbers I recognize - usually somebody in my address book. If a strange number I don't recognize comes in, I let it go to voicemail but 90% of the time, that caller doesn't leave a message - probably some telemarketer...or pollster!

For the most part, people who disconnect their landlines are people on the go. If you sit around the house all day (i.e. out of work and on welfare), it is more likely you will keep your landline and be there for when the pollsters call.

68 posted on 09/28/2012 5:03:31 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: MNJohnnie

Superbly said.


69 posted on 09/28/2012 5:03:51 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: SamAdams76

Makes sense


70 posted on 09/28/2012 5:04:58 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: tsowellfan

You have to look at it both way....OUR STUPID ANTI-AMERICAN black president is surviving solely due to the mediaWHORES who are willing to fall on their swords to get the black turd’s scrawny neck across the finish line...ROMNEY on the other hand is going to be pushed down the finishing line come hell or high water by AMERICANS who fear for this nation....SO there you have it...AND I’M being EXTREMELY REALISTIC. Now let’s see who gets the last laugh and it ain’t the mediaPIGS!!!


71 posted on 09/28/2012 5:07:01 PM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: SamAdams76

Re: cell phones vs landlines


If Romney wins (and even wins big) that will be the excuse the MSM will use for getting the polling data wrong. They used this excuse in 2010 and I think they may have used it back in 2004 as well.

That’s going to be their way of “regaining their credibility” with their viewers.

They need to be exposed.


72 posted on 09/28/2012 5:07:47 PM PDT by tsowellfan
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To: Fester Chugabrew

Very well said. Those same people who elect Romney will be there to give him total hell. That will be the next campaign.


73 posted on 09/28/2012 5:08:02 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: PermaRag
The article has nothing to do with "early voting numbers." Try reading for comprehension.
74 posted on 09/28/2012 5:09:56 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: tsowellfan

The MSM is losing viewership at a staggering rate. They are basically reporting the news to themselves to impress each other. No one is listening anymore.


75 posted on 09/28/2012 5:10:02 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: Fester Chugabrew

Exactly. The election is Lexington/Concord.

The war only beings there, it does not end there. Conservatives cannot do what they did in 1994 and 2000 and check out after the election.


76 posted on 09/28/2012 5:11:35 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: RoseofTexas
OUR STUPID ANTI-AMERICAN black president is surviving solely due to the mediaWHORES

Remember the poll (before Obama became President) that showed that more Americans hated the media more than they hated the IRS.

Let's hope the media jumps the shark.

77 posted on 09/28/2012 5:11:55 PM PDT by tsowellfan
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To: Windflier

Your commitment to not vote for any liberal sounds like you put your opinions above the survival of our nation. Do you think King Obama will tolerate your opinions if re-elected? Maybe now that so many are waking to the dangers of progressives, America might survive given more time which Romney could give that Obama never will. Romney may not be the best choice, but he beats the h*** out of the alternative. Survival with opportunity beats pride.


78 posted on 09/28/2012 5:13:49 PM PDT by nclaurel
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To: MNJohnnie
Reagan would tell you, 85% of something in politics is way better then 100% of nothing.

Romney isn't even close to 85% of what most conservatives were hoping for in this election, so the analogy falls flat. In fact, Romney is a lot closer to 85% of what Democrats want in a candidate.

We don’t have the luxury of this childish political petulant any longer. With the old Democrats you could always rely on the fact that they too were Americans who wanted to see this country thrive. That is no longer the case.

I understand the argument. Today's Dems are DINOs. Communists, in fact. If that's not clear to most conservatives today, then they just haven't been watching for the last two decades.

Johnnie, I'd rather have a stand up showdown with the enemy, than pretend to myself that the fraud Republican is actually going to turn things around in this country, or really fight the good fight that MUST be fought. He's done nothing to convince me that he will, and his record in office is certainly no comfort.

I think of Romney as a Trojan Horse. He's not one of us. Never has been, and never will be. Who knows what he's going to do after he wins? I'm not going to sit here and tell you that I know for a fact that he won't surprise us in some way, but overall, I think we conservatives are going to spend the next four years shaking our heads and wondering just what the hell we were thinking by nominating this man for president.

Again --- I firmly believe that the country is on a track to an historic showdown of some sort. I don't see any way to avoid it. Call it CWII or Revolution II, but it's coming. I'd rather show up for assignment with my dignity intact.

Sorry, but that's the best I can do.

79 posted on 09/28/2012 5:17:04 PM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: nclaurel

As I said at the beginning of my posting this article there will be two kinds of FREEPERS. Those who want to win and those who tell us we cannot win. Those who tell us we cannot win need to stay home and make room for those who know they will win this election for Romney. You can depend on the no-can-do-FREEPERS to come out with their fly swatters to show us all how it is done.


80 posted on 09/28/2012 5:18:03 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: GilGil
The MSM is losing viewership at a staggering rate.

They have become a televised version of Air America (especially NBC).

They're (NBC, ABC, cBS, CNN) the Rush Limbaugh for the democrat party with a few differences:

1) Unlike Rush, they have no audience

2) They hide their political affiliation while Rush Limbaugh admits where he's coming from.

3) The truth is not on their side. Rush Limbaugh uses facts.


If I had to make a bet, I would bet that of all the networks listed above CNN would be the one to move to the center when revenue really drops to dangerous levels. News is not just a 30 minute time slot for CNN. It's their livelihood. The other networks have given up on profit for their newscasts long ago. They could care less.

81 posted on 09/28/2012 5:23:09 PM PDT by tsowellfan
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To: Windflier

When it comes to getting Zero out of office, I’m a temporary pragmatist, opportunist, and appeaser. You may call me unprincipled for being so, but there is a clear difference between the two. I cannot imagine sitting back to allow less leverage in vomiting Zero outta there. But will not fault you in the least for sticking to your guns. That’s what Todd Akin did, and he’s gonna win, too.


82 posted on 09/28/2012 5:23:14 PM PDT by Fester Chugabrew (ABO to the core.)
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To: GilGil

I would crawl down a football field of razor blades and broken glass to get rid of the socialist in the White House!


83 posted on 09/28/2012 5:24:42 PM PDT by nclaurel
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To: Windflier
Very well just cling to your sour grapes because your canidate did not win the GOP nomination instead. But take a good look at the charts and acknowledge, if only to yourself, the fact that in 2012 your ego is more important to you then your country's future. Photobucket Obama Economic Data
84 posted on 09/28/2012 5:27:03 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Windflier

Just to be clear, You can’t vote for Romney because he is a liberal. If he was running against the Devil, you still can’t vote for him because he is Liberal. You are one of the 47% that will vote for Obama regardless. Line up and get your free phone. You can’t change STUPID.


85 posted on 09/28/2012 5:27:08 PM PDT by DrDude (OBAMA/BIDEN=DUMB & DUMBER 2012)
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To: DrDude
You are one of the 47% that will vote for Obama regardless. Line up and get your free phone. You can’t change STUPID.

Juvenile ad hominems and insults aside, you can't add a single vote to Obama's total unless you vote FOR him. By the same token, you can't add a single vote to Romney's total unless you vote FOR him.

Now, that's just elementary arithmetic, and I really didn't think I'd have to explain that to an (alleged) adult Freeper, but there ya go.

No charge.

86 posted on 09/28/2012 5:32:43 PM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: Windflier

I wasn’t asking for an unrelated math lesson. I was telling you that you have no idea why you dislike Romney other than “he’s a Liberal.” You don’t have a clue other than you were told Romney is no good. You are also claiming to make a point by not voting for either. You may think that is the manly thing to do. It is the cowards way out. Pick a side and show some guts. It can be any side.


87 posted on 09/28/2012 5:41:35 PM PDT by DrDude (OBAMA/BIDEN=DUMB & DUMBER 2012)
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To: GilGil

Everyone knows most Democrats vote 10 minutes before the polls close in alphabetical order in the same handwriting whether alive or not.


88 posted on 09/28/2012 5:47:09 PM PDT by OrangeHoof (Our economy won't heal until one particular black man is unemployed.)
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To: DrDude

Basically we have a difference here between the makers and the takers. The makers will make this election happen for Romney then the takers will come in and try and take the victory away by telling us why it was not really a victory. This is really the story of the world. The successful ones always being attacked by the failures. No originality there.


89 posted on 09/28/2012 5:48:55 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: OrangeHoof

I was wondering about that


90 posted on 09/28/2012 5:49:42 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: Windflier
you can't add a single vote to Obama's total unless you vote FOR him. By the same token, you can't add a single vote to Romney's total unless you vote FOR him.

I hear that bandied about a lot by those who are sitting out the election because they feel Romney is less than pristine, but it just doesn't hold up under analysis.

For simplicity sake, let's say there is a tiny town with just 11 registered voters and there is an election for mayor, or whatever title you wish to bestow upon the elected leader of such a tiny town.

So you have a socialist as Candidate A who is running against a somewhat conservative Candidate B. Two of the town's residents are like you, they are conservative but they have very high standards for who they will vote for. They aren't socialist so they will not be voting for Candidate A under any circumstances. However, they are dissatisfied with Candidate B because he's just not conservative enough to their liking so they decide they are going to stick to their principles and sit this election out.

So that leaves 9 registered voters.

Election day arrives and five of them vote for the socialist Candidate A and the other four vote for Candidate B.

The socialist wins by a vote of 5-4.

Now the two voters who decided to sit the election out because Candidate B wasn't perfect enough for them can prattle on all day about how they did not add any votes for socialist Candidate A. But the other five conservatives in town, who now have socialism imposed upon them, will know better.

91 posted on 09/28/2012 5:51:14 PM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: Windflier

Kick Obama out. Then kick Romney out.

That’s the way I’m looking at it.

I don’t trust Romney either.

For me, it’s all about voting against Obama’s fans, his media, and Academia. I can’t stand those people.

The Tea Party’s work won’t be done after (hopefully) Romney get’s elected.

Obama does not deserve to be in there period. If Romney is the vehicle to fire him then so be it. We will have to deal with Romney later.


92 posted on 09/28/2012 5:54:43 PM PDT by CommieCutter
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To: CommieCutter

Perfectly said.


93 posted on 09/28/2012 5:55:59 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: hinckley buzzard
You're right -- it's even more meaningless than votes. Ballot requests. And Democrat requests still exceed Republican requests by a good margin in a small sample of counties, just not quite as wide a margin as they did in 2008.

I can certainly see where that MUST mean Romney is really up huge! Hooray!

94 posted on 09/28/2012 5:57:04 PM PDT by PermaRag (If Trayvon had a father, he'd look just like Obama)
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To: GilGil

So true. I am not against anyone’s preference but am amazed by the people you won’t pick a side because they “lack conviction”. You have to fight for what you want. Even if it means picking an option you “somewhat oppose”. The Takers want someone else to dictate to them.

Romney may not be perfect but sure as hell will give it a shot. Obama has no desire to do anything but to take this country and make it a welfare state and himself the King.


95 posted on 09/28/2012 5:57:11 PM PDT by DrDude (OBAMA/BIDEN=DUMB & DUMBER 2012)
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To: barmag25
A poll I tend to trust yesterday had Romney up 1 point in Iowa with Romney 47-Zero 46. From what I understand that number is bad for Zero so he's likely to get enough of the undecideds to make the difference but then, who knows.

Romney also won the Iowa State Fair fairly reliable Corn Poll 55%-45 percent.

96 posted on 09/28/2012 5:58:06 PM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: Fester Chugabrew

Romney as prez must govern as a conservative or he will invite a fatal primary challenge in 2016. He will keep the base happy, esp w judges, fiscal constraint, and dismantling Obamacare.

Every president wants a second term.


97 posted on 09/28/2012 6:01:22 PM PDT by mwl8787
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To: tsowellfan

ras has Romney up 1 on swing state polls and Romney is up big with indys, its all gravy for Romney right now


98 posted on 09/28/2012 6:02:18 PM PDT by italianquaker (The 47 pct need to pay their fair share)
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To: DrDude
...you have no idea why you dislike Romney other than “he’s a Liberal.” You don’t have a clue other than you were told Romney is no good.

You sure do assume a lot, don't you? You don't even know me, but there you are, telling me what I think and why I think it. You're a real hoot, kid.

I see by your sign up date that you haven't been reading here all that long. I have, and I can tell you that Mr. Romney has been analyzed within an inch of his life over the last several years here. If you'd been around to absorb any of that, you'd know why I feel the way I do about him. You might just want to read up on his actual record in office (and out) before you think someone's twisted my mind about him.

Like I said earlier, you're not going to convince me to vote for Romney, so you may as well save your blood pressure for a fight that's worth having. Have a chat with a leaning Democrat, if you want to convince someone to vote for Mitt.

99 posted on 09/28/2012 6:03:30 PM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: GilGil; RIghtwardHo

>> Right now the Freepers giving us every reason to lose are being left behind and we are watching them from the rear view mirror.

You also have to remember that SOME (not all) of ‘em are from the other side... signed up this election cycle to engage in psyops. That “RightwardHo” for example.


100 posted on 09/28/2012 6:03:50 PM PDT by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
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