Tracking Ohio’s absentee ballot requests (A good measure of voter enthusiasm in key swing state)

Red State ^ | 09/28/2012 | Moe Lane

[SeekAndFind]

We[**] got a guy out there doing just that, and the link to his spreadsheet is here.

Executive summary: the process is ongoing, and what’s being tracked are absentee/early ballot REQUESTS, not turned-in ballots. So it’s not telling us who’s ahead in Ohio; it’s merely telling us what we know of which party’s members are asking for ballots. In other words, it’s a possible measure of voter enthusiasm in Ohio. So…

	2012	2008	% of 2008
Total	601208	740725	81%
Democrat	177155	288270	61%
Republican	145560	144300	101%
Cuyahoga	159572	231497	69%
D Cuyahoga	86274	119891	72%
R Cuyahoga	38134	35067	109%
Hamilton	61253	102796	60%
D Hamilton	9793	16763	58%
R Hamilton	18304	23677	77%
Summit	39056	92941	42%
D Summit	9581	43524	22%
R Summit	7525	12857	59%

The above shows first the total absentee/early ballot requests of all counties currently reporting*, for both 2008 and 2012; followed by the current totals for three of the top five most populous counties in Ohio (full information is not yet available in [Republican] Franklin and [Democratic] Montgomery counties). So, in 2008 the total absentee/early ballots for all counties currently captured by the linked spreadsheet was just under 741 thousand; the 2012 equivalent so far is currently 601 thousand, or 81% of 2008′s total. And when you look at the partisan breakdowns… simply put, the Democrats are not requesting absentee ballots at the same rate as Republicans are. Of the three counties listed above, only Hamilton is particularly Republican… yet Cuyahoga Democrats have yet to reach their 2008 numbers while the Republican numbers have, and it may still end up that Summit county Republicans will surpass the Democrats there. In fact, if this trend continues then total Republican early/absentee ballot requests in Ohio may surpass total Democratic ballots; it is uncertain whether the Democrats will match their 2008 totals, while the Republicans very probably will.

Shorter executive summary: what we know of early/absentee ballot requests in Ohio does not support the current narrative that Ohioan Democratic voters are as enthusiastic about voting in 2012 as they were in 2008. This in turn does not support the current narrative that the Democrats will do better in Ohio in 2012 than they did in 2008.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

*This is an important caveat: there are considerably more counties out there that still need to report in. This report indicates that there were a total of 1.72 million absentee/early voters in Ohio in 2012; clearly the process has a way to go.

[Jonty30]

What also needs to be mentioned is that many of those ballot requests were not made by individual Democrats, but Democrat operatives, which probably indicates an even lower enthusiasm amongst the Democrats.

[SeekAndFind]

Well, I just hope that the Republican operatives aren’t doing the same thing.... just saying.

[catnipman]

Looks like the start of the only poll that actually counts.

[AU72]

If this data was reversed in favor of democrats it would have led the MSM nightly news tonight.

"Absentee ballot requests in Ohio are favoring democrats"

[Jonty30]

They probably are, to some extent.

Historically, it’s always been the Democrats that would actively get people to got by the busload. Republicans have always relied on individual voters.

[SeekAndFind]

BTW, to those who are not familiar with Ohio, Cuyahoga County is part of Greater Cleveland, a HUGELY Democratic section of Ohio.

This was the Presidential election result in 2008:

DEMOCRATS 68.50% 441,836

REPUBLICANS 30.44% 196,369

[LS]

That’s indeed almost exactly the margin of victory for Obama: 258,000 votes.

[LS]

While. We use Jay’s numbers here, I think our analysis and comments on the other thread are far superior to this guy’s.

[Jet Jaguar]

Poll ping.

[1010RD]

It’s nice to see the improvements in percentages, but the raw vote totals still show Democrats ahead. Ohio still elects Presidents by popular vote, no?

[LS]

Of course. The point is, the 2004 election was already lost in early/absentee vote percentages, mostly.Cuyahoga Co. Those numbers this time are grossly insufficient to reelect The One. The second key point is that the turnout % show convincingly that the poll numbers assuming ANY Dem advantage are flat wrong.

Third, this still doesn't include a bunch of counties that went huge for McCain. In other words, there isn't one piece of good news here for Obama.

[LS]

Sorry, I see you we’re referring just to this other mini-chart, which doesn’t include key R counties in the analysis.

[1010RD]

No problem. I appreciate your analysis and postings, but I just want to make certain I understand them and that the data backs them up. GIGO.

[jokemoke]

Also keep in mind, there are 490,000 fewer new voter registrations this time in Ohio than 2008. Mark my words, you WILL NOT see Democrats turn-out in massive numbers this year in Ohio. This year will be the typical Ohio turn-out for Democrats. The die-hards will vote for Obama, as always but there is no enthusiam in the Democrat ranks.

[LS]

Exactly, and I WANT people to examine the #s and make sure we have solid stuff. If you want on the “big” spreadsheet ping list, contact Freeper Jet Jaguar.

[Solson]

Bttt

[1010RD]

LS, I believe this effort will pay off going forward in election after election. We can’t let these MSM liars get away with it.

Jet jaguar, please add me to your list for the polling analysis. I’d like to take a look and make sure we’re spot on. Thanks.

We must beat liberals, along with Seatopians and the whole utopian elite! ;-]

[eyedigress]

The MSM is toast. If they wanted to talk to me about anything I would tell them to get bent. I sure as hell don’t purchase any product they represent. This Nation was built on truth, they have taken a once needed element and turned it against us.

I have newspapers from the NY Times during the Civil War. They reported facts, no spin. It was rough.