Skip to comments.A Crucial Economic Indicator Just Sank To A Level That Coincides With Recession 100% Of The Time
Posted on 09/29/2012 6:23:04 AM PDT by blam
Rosenberg: A Crucial Economic Indicator Just Sank To A Level That Coincides With Recession 100% Of The Time
Sep. 29, 2012, 8:13 AM
Economists often note that durable goods orders is one of the more volatile economic indicators that we get every month.
However, there wasn't much sugar-coating anyone could do to the Thursday's report that showed durable goods orders plunged 13 percent in August. Economists were looking for a 5.0 percent decline.
In his latest Breakfast with Dave note, David Rosenberg points to one sub-component of the durable goods report that sent a particularly scary signal.
The three-month moving average of core capex orders (i.e. nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft) was -4.1 percent in August.
"History shows when the trend weakened to the level we see today, the economy was in recession 100% of the time," wrote Rosenberg. "So stick that in you pipe and smoke it!"
This is also bad news for jobs. According to Rosenberg's data, this measure has an 83 percent correlation with private employment.
Rosenberg also notes that durable goods orders has an 86% correlation to the stock market.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
* September 30, 2011: Recession Is "Inescapable" (link)
* February 24, 2012: GDP Data Signals U.S. Recession (link)
* May 9, 2012: Renewed U.S. Recession Call (link)
* July 10, 2012: "We're in Recession Already" (link)
* September 13, 2012: "U.S. Economy Is in a Recession" (link)
The media knows this script really well.
At what point will they start using the word depression.
The day after the inauguration will begin the stories on the homeless, and hunger in America, and people dying because of those and lack of health care. Book it.
Word Depression will be used if Romney is President.
As soon as Romney makes any significant move to repair the Bush (ahem) recession that Obama inherited.
There are no homeless right now. Wait....
If you were to plot a trend line, the slope is negative since 2004. The current China manufacturing number is pretty much right on the trend line
When the president no longer has a "(D)" after his name.
After the election. Of course, it will be the Romney depression.
If Willard wins, all articles dated November 7th will call it a depression retroactive to 2010.
If the Usurper stays in power, depression will only refer to a mental condition all Rethuglicans have, requiring mandatory drug therapy and institutionalization.
...and they will call it “The Romney Recession”. Take it to the bank (as if banks were someplace safe nowadays.) The dopes on the street will lap it up. Worse, Romney will pull a bunch of fascist crap that Zero couldn’t get away with. Take that to the bank as well. He will “just have to” and of course they will all be “temporary measures for public safety.” Like the the Spanish American War phone tax.
Yep, anyone who actually WANTS to be a Republican president next year should be automatically disqualified on grounds of mental disability. Only someone who has to be dragged kicking and screaming into the oval office has the potential to be any good at the job. No, this is not sarcasm or satire, I am serious.
“At what point will they start using the word depression.
When the president no longer has a “(D)” after his name.”
Absolutely, with Romney in office we could have a five percent annual economic growth rate and the line from the BS peddlers would be, “Worst economy in fifty years.”
Eight years of Obama will teach America a valuable lesson. Of course, there may not be an America in 2016, but the people may have learned a thing or two.
“When the president no longer has a “(D)” after his name. “
Well, duh. They need that D to spell “Depression.”
I disagree, the depression will start the day after the election BECAUSE Romney was elected.