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A Crucial Economic Indicator Just Sank To A Level That Coincides With Recession 100% Of The Time
TBI ^ | 9-29-2012 | Sam Ro

Posted on 09/29/2012 6:23:04 AM PDT by blam

Rosenberg: A Crucial Economic Indicator Just Sank To A Level That Coincides With Recession 100% Of The Time

Sam Ro
Sep. 29, 2012, 8:13 AM

Economists often note that durable goods orders is one of the more volatile economic indicators that we get every month.

However, there wasn't much sugar-coating anyone could do to the Thursday's report that showed durable goods orders plunged 13 percent in August. Economists were looking for a 5.0 percent decline.

In his latest Breakfast with Dave note, David Rosenberg points to one sub-component of the durable goods report that sent a particularly scary signal.

The three-month moving average of core capex orders (i.e. nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft) was -4.1 percent in August.

"History shows when the trend weakened to the level we see today, the economy was in recession 100% of the time," wrote Rosenberg. "So stick that in you pipe and smoke it!"

This is also bad news for jobs. According to Rosenberg's data, this measure has an 83 percent correlation with private employment.

Rosenberg also notes that durable goods orders has an 86% correlation to the stock market.

Gluskin Sheff

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: collapse; economy; recession; recovery

1 posted on 09/29/2012 6:23:17 AM PDT by blam
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To: blam
The Complete History Of ECRI's Controversial Recession Call

* September 30, 2011: Recession Is "Inescapable" (link)

* February 24, 2012: GDP Data Signals U.S. Recession (link)

* May 9, 2012: Renewed U.S. Recession Call (link)

* July 10, 2012: "We're in Recession Already" (link)

* September 13, 2012: "U.S. Economy Is in a Recession" (link)

2 posted on 09/29/2012 6:28:12 AM PDT by blam
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To: blam
You know, if Romney is elected, he will "own" this recession. It's all his fault. Look at Bush, Look at Romney. They plunged us into terrible recessions. Boy ... I rememeber when Obama was in office -- the economy was great, but then we went and elected a Republican ...

The media knows this script really well.

3 posted on 09/29/2012 6:28:16 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (ua)
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To: blam

At what point will they start using the word depression.


4 posted on 09/29/2012 6:28:34 AM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
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To: blam
China's Export Orders Fall At Fastest Rate In 42 Months


5 posted on 09/29/2012 6:31:52 AM PDT by blam
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To: driftdiver

The day after the inauguration will begin the stories on the homeless, and hunger in America, and people dying because of those and lack of health care. Book it.


6 posted on 09/29/2012 6:32:44 AM PDT by Kozak (The means of defence again.t foreign danger, have been always the instruments of tyranny at home JM)
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To: driftdiver

Word Depression will be used if Romney is President.


7 posted on 09/29/2012 6:34:01 AM PDT by MNDude (OWS Movement RIP)
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To: driftdiver
"At what point will they start using the word depression."

As soon as Romney makes any significant move to repair the Bush (ahem) recession that Obama inherited.

8 posted on 09/29/2012 6:34:27 AM PDT by blam
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To: blam

There are no homeless right now. Wait....


9 posted on 09/29/2012 6:35:26 AM PDT by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: blam

If you were to plot a trend line, the slope is negative since 2004. The current China manufacturing number is pretty much right on the trend line


10 posted on 09/29/2012 6:40:13 AM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... Present failure and impending death yield irrational action))
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To: driftdiver
At what point will they start using the word depression.

When the president no longer has a "(D)" after his name.

11 posted on 09/29/2012 6:40:38 AM PDT by DuncanWaring (The Lord uses the good ones; the bad ones use the Lord.)
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To: driftdiver
At what point will they start using the word depression.

After the election. Of course, it will be the Romney depression.

12 posted on 09/29/2012 6:41:58 AM PDT by VRW Conspirator (We were the tea party before there was a tea party. - Jim Robinson)
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To: driftdiver
At what point will they start using the word depression.

If Willard wins, all articles dated November 7th will call it a depression retroactive to 2010.

If the Usurper stays in power, depression will only refer to a mental condition all Rethuglicans have, requiring mandatory drug therapy and institutionalization.

13 posted on 09/29/2012 6:46:44 AM PDT by Old Sarge (We are now officially over the precipice, we just havent struck the ground yet)
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To: driftdiver

...and they will call it “The Romney Recession”. Take it to the bank (as if banks were someplace safe nowadays.) The dopes on the street will lap it up. Worse, Romney will pull a bunch of fascist crap that Zero couldn’t get away with. Take that to the bank as well. He will “just have to” and of course they will all be “temporary measures for public safety.” Like the the Spanish American War phone tax.


14 posted on 09/29/2012 6:53:04 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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To: ClearCase_guy

Yep, anyone who actually WANTS to be a Republican president next year should be automatically disqualified on grounds of mental disability. Only someone who has to be dragged kicking and screaming into the oval office has the potential to be any good at the job. No, this is not sarcasm or satire, I am serious.


15 posted on 09/29/2012 7:03:55 AM PDT by RipSawyer
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To: DuncanWaring

“At what point will they start using the word depression.

When the president no longer has a “(D)” after his name.”
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Absolutely, with Romney in office we could have a five percent annual economic growth rate and the line from the BS peddlers would be, “Worst economy in fifty years.”


16 posted on 09/29/2012 7:08:03 AM PDT by RipSawyer
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To: RipSawyer
I believe that America needs to learn a very hard lesson. It's something that we needed to learn decades ago, but just never figured out. I say that four years of Obama have been insufficient for people to learn what they need to learn.

Eight years of Obama will teach America a valuable lesson. Of course, there may not be an America in 2016, but the people may have learned a thing or two.

17 posted on 09/29/2012 7:26:55 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (ua)
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To: DuncanWaring

“When the president no longer has a “(D)” after his name. “

Well, duh. They need that D to spell “Depression.”


18 posted on 09/29/2012 7:54:54 AM PDT by ModelBreaker
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To: Old Sarge

I disagree, the depression will start the day after the election BECAUSE Romney was elected.


19 posted on 09/29/2012 7:55:53 AM PDT by tiki
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To: blam
12_1106RFRNDM_7
20 posted on 09/29/2012 7:59:40 AM PDT by Wings-n-Wind (The main things are the plain things!)
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To: blam

And Yet Business Insider shills for Obama 24 X 7. Go figure.


21 posted on 09/29/2012 8:35:06 AM PDT by desertfreedom765
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To: desertfreedom765
"And Yet Business Insider shills for Obama 24 X 7. Go figure."

Yup...they don't like being told about it either. They've banned me from making comments there, LOL.

22 posted on 09/29/2012 8:55:50 AM PDT by blam
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To: ClearCase_guy

Look at Detroit, California, etc.

No matter how bad it gets, they still keep pulling the lever for the Rats

Some people are just incapable of learning


23 posted on 09/29/2012 11:46:15 AM PDT by qam1 (There's been a huge party. All plates and the bottles are empty, all that's left is the bill to pay)
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