Posted on 09/29/2012 6:43:32 AM PDT by tatown
Not cell phones...Obamaphones.
WOW. D+5?
Look at this today from USA Today/Gallup:
USA Today/ Gallup Poll: GOP Opens Up 16% Enthusiasm Lead over Dems. The poll of 1,446 adults, taken Monday through Thursday, has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
GOP regains enthusiasm edge. 64% of Reps are more enthusiastic than usual v. 48% of Dems.
In an Adult poll, Oct 14-16 2004: “Only 51% of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic about voting than in previous years, compared to 71% of Democrats, marking a shift from October 2004, when enthusiasm was about the same for both partisan groups.”
So, pre-election 2004, Dem and Rep enthusiasm were equal, and Republicans won
In 2008, Dem=71%, Rep=51% enthusiastic, and Democrats won
In 2012, Dems=48%, Reps = 64% enthusiastic, and who will win??
Using D+5 turnout is ludicrous.
Oops: meant to type:
“In an Adult poll, Oct 14-16 2008”
No edit key? :)
The mantra of “are you really going to vote for the same people who got us into this mess” didn’t exactly work too well for the Democrats in the 2010 midterms.
The only reason Republicans won in 2010 is because the Democrats didn’t vote. They will be voting this time around. Not to the extent of 2008 but they will vote.
Santorum would have won the election with Pennsylvania. I am sick of you liberals claiming because he lost in 2006 along with every other Republican by the way, that he would not win the state. Stop with your liberal crap!
“You may believe that sincerely, but you have absolutely no evidence to support that statement. I’m not even a Mitt Romney fan, but it was obvious to me that Newt Gingrich is nothing more than an inside-the-Beltway @sshole who has absolutely no credentials, executive experience or any other attributes that would indicate any competency in the White House.
The guy couldn’t even see his roles in his two biggest Federal positions to completion — having stepped down as House Speaker in 1998 before resigning from his House seat in 1999. For this guy to crawl out from the swamp of Washington D.C. 13 years later and present himself as a credible presidential candidate was a complete joke.
I hate to be the one to break this to you, but a lot of these people (I’ll even include Rick Santorum in the mix) see the Federal government as an enormous industry, and they make careers out of lobbying Congress and occasionally launching a pointless “political campaign” for the sole purpose of promoting themselves and living at the expense of campaign donors for months at a time.
Say what you want about Romney, but you’d have a hard time including him in that group of hacks.”
Romney was the weakest candidate of them all, the proof being that his record closely resembles Obama’s. If you seriously believe Romney is a better candidate, I question your credibility as a conservative. Romney does not offer a real alternative, and any voter who learns more about Romney who isn’t a slave MittBot will probably seriously consider just sitting at home.
Newt, on the other hand, offered a serious alternative insomuch that he had big ideas that he was able to defend. Romney is fighting a campaign of being as moderate as possible to not offend the indepedents, while occasionally preaching to the choir to keep the base happy. Even Paul Ryan came out endorsing gays in the military, “it’s time to move on” he said. There’s no way Newt would be running that kind of a campaign right now.
Real winners win because they act like winners, because they move with confidence and because they lead others to follow them. That’s why Reagan can win being a uber conservative, or Sarah Palin can win being a uber conservative. But the RINOs don’t understand this and look at politics as a carefully scripted game where you have to appeal to each group in different ways. So suddenly people in Virginia receive stuff in the mail from the Romney campaign promising that he will do more about Lyme disease than Obama. And so it goes.
Reagan was down 8, not[ 12, as I said.
I agree using D+5 is totally ridiculous... Even Rasmussen is afraid to use R=D which is the most probable scenario on November 6 2012...
Exactly what I’m thinking as well.
Rasmussen’s latest numbers for a few of the states:
State - Obama / Romney
VA - 49 / 48
OH - 47 / 46
NV - 47 /45
FL - 48 /46
WI - 49 /46
MI - 54 /42
PA - 51 /39
MO - 45 /48
NC - 45 /51
CO - 45 /47
IA - 44 /47
NH - 45 /48
Rasmussen electoral college map:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard
Obama’s within 1 point of having Virginia in his pocket and just 2 points shy of Florida, of all places.
Remember posts from right here only a year ago (or less):
“The dog catcher could beat Obama!”
“The DOG could beat Obama!”
“The ham sandwich could beat Obama!”
The model calculates what is the required percentage of Obama 2008 total voters to stay home in 2012 combined with the required percentage of Obama 2008 “White Voters” switching for Romney in 2012, so Romney would win a given battleground state. In this model I assumed that the percentage of participation of each RACE in 2012 the same as 2008 and I also assumed that Obama would receive in 2012 the same percentage of the Black Vote and the Hispanics Votes that he received in 2008, Romney would receive the same percentage of these two voter blocks (Blacks and Hispanics) as McCain received in 2008..
Based on the above this is what needs to happen in order for Romney to win the following battleground states:
Florida (5% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012)
Ohio (7% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012)
Virginia (8% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012)
North Carolina (0% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012)
Indiana (0% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012)
Colorado (10% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012)
Iowa (7% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012)
New Hampshire (10% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012)
Wisconsin ( 14% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012)
Minnesota (12% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012)
Nevada ( 17% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012)
Michigan (18% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012 and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012)
Pennsylvania (19% of Obama 2008 White Voters switch and vote for Romney in 2012) and 3% of Obama 2008 voters stay home in 2012
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