Posted on 09/29/2012 10:00:36 AM PDT by faucetman
"In our latest Politico/GWU Battleground Poll with middle class families, which comprise about fifty-four percent (54%) of the total American Electorate and usually split in their vote behavior between Republicans and Democrats, Romney holds a fourteen-point advantage (55%-41%)."
(Excerpt) Read more at tarrance.com ...
http://www.tarrance.com/2012/09/the-49th-edition-of-the-politico-gw-battleground-poll/
select from this list: The data released includes the questionnaire, charts, tables, Republican and Democrat analysis.
The excerpt above is from the "Republican" analysis. I also looked at the Democrat analysis.
I first became aware of this poll in 1994. I was watching a roundtable discussion on C Span with a dozen (or more) pollsters. They went down the line asking the pollsters to predict the expected gains for each party. The Democrat pollsters naturally predicted modest gains for Republicans. Republican pollsters naturally predicted larger gains. When they got to Ed Goaz (The Republican half of The Battleground Poll), he said (I don't remember the exact amount) something like 40 or more House seats. Everyone else on the panel burst into laughter.
As we now know, it was a Republican LANDSLIDE taking control of the House for the first time in 40 years, gaining 54 seats. (8 Senate seats)
This is why I take the Republican half (Ed Goaz) of this poll as gospel. He has continued to be accurate.
I did notice a change in the Democrat analysis. It seemed more like a campaign release. Smarmy, with buzz words like "47 per cent". It just didn't sound credible to me. On the "middle class", the two reports were 180 degrees opposed. The tone of the Dems analysis and the many quoted statistics of the Republican analysis, leads me to objectively believe the Republican analysis and Ed Goaz.
If you are not familiar with this poll, you should check it out and come to your own conclusions. I believe it to be an accurate poll.
I have no affiliation with this poll, group, or anybody involved with it.
The author should be “Ed Goeas and Brian Nienaber” not me. Moderator please correct my error.
I pray it is correct...!!!!
The 55-41% lead for Romney, from what I read, refers to his lead with “middle-class families”. I’m not sure what percent of the population constitutes middle-class families but I would guess it’s significant.
"In fact, even with all of the misleading partisan attacks on the proposals from Paul Ryan to reform Medicare, a majority of seniors (61%) select a pocketbook issue and not Medicare as their top issue of concern and nearly six in ten seniors (58%) are voting for the Romney/Ryan ticket."
Read that paragraph above and think Florida!
LOL. Joe Biden has higher unfavorables than Paul Ryan!
It’s not enough to just beat him. He has to lose, fall down in the mud and get egg on his face and then poop his pants. The Dems must be utterly humiliated, with their free phone lady, their free colonoscopies, and their free booze and cigs for vagrant voters.
"All of this data makes clear that Mitt Romney has won the strong support of middle class families and is leading the President on an overwhelming majority of key measurements beyond just the ballot. In fact, when respondents were asked who, Barrack Obama or Mitt Romney, would best handle a variety of issues, Romney led on all but one including the economy (+9%), foreign policy (+3), spending (+15%), taxes (+7%), Medicare (+2), and jobs (+10).
"Ironically, the one measurement Obama led Mitt Romney on was “standing up for the middle class” (+8 Obama), reinforcing that often the Democrats win the message war with the middle class, but not their hearts and souls."
Pay careful attention to the last sentence. Note, people parrot the junk the hear but don't believe it.
Poll ping.
Contrary to some other polls (PEW etc), guess who is winning the faith-based electorate? Romney has got a majority of Catholics, according to this poll. That’s usually a predictive factor for a presidential election.
The middle class double digit lead is very big news as well. That would include a LOT of independents. It’s those indies who are always the wild card. There must be a reason why democratic party registration plummeted since 2008 across the swing states and OH, and the Independent registration jumped. Doesn’t seem like these indies would be voting lock-step with the Democrats either.
Three polls to watch, Mason Dixon, Battle Ground, and Ras.
Romney has 51% if Catholics in this poll...not all that inspiring to be frank
I think it’s going to be a lot more, but the pollsters aren’t picking up the wave yet.
Still, who the Catholics vote for as president, are usually the winners, through the history of presidential voting.
To a huge percentage of US Catholics English is a second language,if ya catch my drift.Many of the rest are ethnic Catholics (Irish/Italian/Polish) who tending to be blue collar union types.That would explain it.
I've heard IBD/TIPP is good as well.
I wouldn't give two cents for any of the others, esp. Gallup.
If I recall, Al Gore took the Catholic vote 54 to 46. So a Romney lead with this group is significant.
Only one third of Catholics attend church regularly. Another third Easter-Christmas-Mothers Day and the last third never go to church. That last third is strongly Democratic.
Too bad Southern baptists or Assemblies of God voting trends don't determine the winners.
LOL ..it would be a boring forum...I can just hear us now.."oh what another election we are guaranteed to win by at least 85% of the vote...oh what to fight over?"
Latinos have made Catholics even more liberal leaning as a voting bloc..that and other demographic features like urban and northeast or rustbelt
just a hunch but areas where white Catholics are more conservative in general is probably where that holds true for the general population as well
I'm in semi rural TN and the non hispanic Catholics I know who go to church may be a bit more good works leaning than me but they vote GOP
but I bet were I in Irish Bronx or South Philly Italian it would be different
To tell you honestly, I have a lot of respect for the polling results and past performance and accuracy of the following polling outfits :
BATTLEGROUND POLL ( TARANCE GROUP )
SURVEY USA ( ESPECIALLY AT THE STATE LEVEL )
RASMUSSEN
Those 3 have proven to be consistently accurate. The rest are mostly noise.
Surprisingly, ZOGBY has been quite silent this year.
How many of the Trades Union Vote is working?
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