Skip to comments.Put This in Your Polling Pipe and Smoke It: ...
Posted on 09/29/2012 12:21:11 PM PDT by Kaslin
Rush Limbaugh brought up an important matter relating to polling Friday, which even beyond what is already known about party affiliation from Rasmussen and Gallup, further supports the notion that performing presidential preference polls based on 2008 presidential turnout is fundamentally flawed.
Read it below, because you can virtually bet what's left of the value of your home that you won't see this item mentioned anywhere in the establishment press, even though its ultimate source is a liberal group:
Drop in Ohio voter registration, especially in Dem strongholds, mirrors nationwide trend
... a precipitous decline in Democratic voter registration in key swing states -- nowhere more apparent than in Ohio.
Voter registration in the Buckeye State is down by 490,000 people from four years ago. Of that reduction, 44 percent is in Cleveland and surrounding Cuyahoga County, where Democrats outnumber Republicans more than two to one.
"I think what we're seeing is a lot of spin and hype on the part of the Obama campaign to try to make it appear that they're going to cruise to victory in Ohio," Cuyahoga County Republican Chairman Rob Frost said. "It's not just Cuyahoga County. Nearly 350,000 of those voters are the decrease in the rolls in the three largest counties, Cuyahoga, Hamilton and Franklin."
Frost points out that those three counties all contain urban centers, where the largest Democrat vote traditionally has been.
Ohio is not alone. An August study by the left-leaning think tank Third Way showed that the Democratic voter registration decline in eight key swing states outnumbered the Republican decline by a 10-to-one ratio. In Florida, Democratic registration is down 4.9 percent, in Iowa down 9.5 percent. And in New Hampshire, it's down down 19.7 percent.
Of course, voter registrations aren't the same as self-reported party affiliation, wherein many who haven't registered as Dems or Republicans nonetheless identify themselves as members of one or the other party. But it would make sense that at least some of the disproportionate Democratic fall-off, even after culling the dead and those who have moved away from the voter rolls, will end up being reflected at the ballot box.
It also supports the notion that there has been the kind of party affiliation shift Rasmussen has documented (from Dems +7.6 in November 2008 to GOP +4.3 in August 2012), and the related notion that polls containing far more Democrats than Republicans do not representatively sample the way things are now, i.e., that they're seriously cooked.
Rasmussen's September 28 tracking poll has Obama up by one point nationally at 47-46%.
Dems haven’t thought of it yet, but you can get too cocky that you have already won and that will give people the idea they can stay home because you have it covered.
I hope that happens.
What gets me is I don’t think Obambi won by any huge numbers in the first place, so with his horrible record since then and the race thing not so important as it was, the Kenyan should lose in a landslide.
there were some liberal looking females in front of the local hardware store this morning and aggressively one of the demanded maam? you registered to vote? I said sure am in Kansas (this took place in Missouri) then I gratuitously added, “I wouldn’t be voting Democrat, I’ll tell you that.” When I cam out they were gone........
These have been major drops in Dem registration as they fled to Independent/Unaffiliated status. Republicans have picked up some though.
I don’t see the “why” of this major shift which happened after 2008, Obana’s election. A major leftward swing of the Democratic Party caused them to flee? I do notice that Democrats have been very worried about this swing, AND about new voter ID laws, and about major drop-offs in new voter registration in states like Florida.
I’m hoping that the Dems haven’t just gotten smart and registered their fake/dead voters as Repub or Independent, so as to muddy the trail.
Now tell me do these on the right side look like landslides?
Thanks Kaslin - you always have a lot of great posts!
LS - I thought you might be interested in this. I’ve been following your great posts on Ohio - thanks for all the info!
So does Rasmussen’s 47O 46R tracking poll accurately reflect the affiliation and registration or is Obama still leading even in the most positive poll for Republicans?
The other issue that hasn’t be brought up is that Dems have to register to vote more often since they are usually a mobile segment of our society. Where as Repubs are more stable, meaning that they are the homeowners that stay put. Also, me thinks that those that have lost their homes are more likely to be Dems since they were a major part of the $0 down payment loans that cause the housing meltdown.
Noat me dforest,
I’m hoping the crazies come to their senses and either stay home or vote obammy out
I meant I hope the Obamarons think they have already won and stay home.
“I dont see the why of this major shift which happened after 2008, Obanas election.”
I think there is significant Dem voter dissatisfaction with Obama among centrist, “normal”, non ideologue Democrats. I have a lib brother-in-law that would email me all the time after Obama won, and was touting another victory before the ‘10 election.
Now I never hear from him. He is a white collar worker whose company has been hit hard. My sister says he feels disenfranchised over many things. He may grudgingly vote for him again. She says he even wishes he had another choice.
I think there is a good number of Dems like this and this is why the left pollsters are skewing their numbers to eliminate this silent group of disaffected Dem voters.
I predict a landslide for Romney.
That makes sense. Obama took a hard left turn after the election and drove away the centrists. It’s the best reasoning that I’ve seen so far.