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WHAT TO MAKE OF DECLINING DEMOCRATIC REGISTRATION?
Powerline ^ | September 29, 2012 | John Hinderaker

Posted on 09/29/2012 7:46:03 PM PDT by lasereye

On our podcast today, Brian Ward, Steve Hayward and I talked about the obviously bogus polls that purport to show Barack Obama with a big lead in various swing states, even though those same polls show Romney winning independent voters by significant margins. Those results make sense only if enormous numbers of voters are signing up as Democrats. But is there any evidence of any such trend? Not at all; the evidence is entirely to the contrary. Hugh Hewitt, among others, has been talking about these data:

Voter registration in the Buckeye State is down by 490,000 people from four years ago. Of that reduction, 44 percent is in Cleveland and surrounding Cuyahoga County, where Democrats outnumber Republicans more than two to one. …

Ohio is not alone. An August study by the left-leaning think tank Third Way showed that the Democratic voter registration decline in eight key swing states outnumbered the Republican decline by a 10-to-one ratio. In Florida, Democratic registration is down 4.9 percent, in Iowa down 9.5 percent. And in New Hampshire, it’s down down 19.7 percent. …

The Third Way study, which was conducted in August, indicates the Democrats’ drop in registered voters coincides with a gain in independent voters.

And all of the polls show that Romney is doing well with independent voters; far better, obviously, than with Democrats. This is just one more example of how inconsistent the data are, on the basis of which the Democratic Party media are boosting Barack Obama’s campaign.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Iowa; US: New Hampshire; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012polls; polls; registration; trends

1 posted on 09/29/2012 7:46:09 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; ...

Poll ping.


2 posted on 09/29/2012 7:51:50 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: lasereye

In NH down 19.7%.. LOL. No surprise from what I see on the ground here (i.e. no Obama excitement, no banners, no sticker).

In 2010, the NH GOP won 400 statehouse seats (biggest wipeout in history), took both U.S. House seats, and the US Senate seat. What’s changed since.. other than higher gas prices, more debt and higher unemployment in the state (under a Dem governor).

And they still sample Dems +6 in a state that is at minimum R+3. It’s a joke. They are in for a shock on Nov 6.


3 posted on 09/29/2012 7:52:32 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: lasereye

Uh, Obama is a bigger failure than Carter, more corrupt than Teapot Dome and Watergate combined, more autocratic than Wilson, sleazier than LBJ and gayer than James Buchanan. Could that be it?


4 posted on 09/29/2012 8:00:56 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: lasereye; ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas; stephenjohnbanker; DoughtyOne; Gilbo_3; NFHale; Impy; ...
RE :”On our podcast today, Brian Ward, Steve Hayward and I talked about the obviously bogus polls that purport to show Barack Obama with a big lead in various swing states, even though those same polls show Romney winning independent voters by significant margins. Those results make sense only if enormous numbers of voters are signing up as Democrats. But is there any evidence of any such trend? Not at all; the evidence is entirely to the contrary.

This is the paradox and why polls will have trouble telling who will win this year, Voter turn-out. How many who like Obama will really take the time to vote?

What Rs need is a cold rainy dark election day in those 10 battleground states, and high gas prices

5 posted on 09/29/2012 8:06:36 PM PDT by sickoflibs (Romney is still a liberal. Just watch him. (Obama-ney Care ))
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; lasereye

Despite the incredible spin from the Media, this poseur has disenchanted, disillusioned and disappointed almost all the first-time voters who supported him in 2008.

Those of us who had his number have awakened many fence-sitters.

It’s shaping up for a massive rejection of obama, in the nick of time for this Nation.


6 posted on 09/29/2012 8:08:22 PM PDT by One Name
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To: sickoflibs

what to make of Democratic decline of love for Freedom


7 posted on 09/29/2012 8:11:38 PM PDT by dalebert
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To: lasereye
Most of the decline is not due to voters dropping their party registration but to young first time registrants declining to list as Democrats or Republicans. Thus the relative decline in Democratic registration is less a sign of a shift in ideological sentiment than of a weakening of overt party ID among new voters.

As for the polls, I suspect that much of Obama's seeming rise is due to Republicans tending not to answer the telephone for pollsters due to the torrent of political calls. In addition, the Democratic ground game kicked into gear immediately after their convention and has spurred Democrats toward greater party ID and Obama support. The GOP ground game is just beginning and is less intense than the Democrats but will gradually make itself felt.

8 posted on 09/29/2012 8:14:06 PM PDT by Rockingham
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To: sickoflibs

We know we’ll have the high gas prices.


9 posted on 09/29/2012 8:14:18 PM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: Conservativegreatgrandma
RE “We know we’ll have the high gas prices.”

On election day?

Obama says you should trade in your SUV for a Smart Car.

10 posted on 09/29/2012 8:16:06 PM PDT by sickoflibs (Romney is still a liberal. Just watch him. (Obama-ney Care ))
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“Uh, Obama is a bigger failure than Carter, more corrupt than Teapot Dome and Watergate combined, more autocratic than Wilson, sleazier than LBJ and gayer than James Buchanan. Could that be it?”

Hehehehehehehe! Well said!


11 posted on 09/29/2012 8:22:50 PM PDT by BlessingsofLiberty (Remember Brian Terry...)
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To: One Name

My wife’s old friend told her that she and her boyfriend went to the Obama 2016 movie. He voted for Obama in 2008. After seeing the film he says Obama frightens him. Now he’s trying to get other people to see it.


12 posted on 09/29/2012 8:22:50 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: sickoflibs
Obama says you should trade in your SUV for a Smart Car.

What if you have 3 or more kids? Oh wait, is a China-like birth policy next?

13 posted on 09/29/2012 8:25:05 PM PDT by AndyTheBear
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To: lasereye
Perhaps they finally got the message, they have been sold out.
14 posted on 09/29/2012 8:26:27 PM PDT by ANGGAPO (Layte Gulf Beach Club)
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To: lasereye

Nutty ACORN nutters no longer running around registering fake peeps for $$ like they were back in ‘08.

Nothing to do with real people or trends or the cost of tea in China or jack sh*t...


15 posted on 09/29/2012 8:27:05 PM PDT by ImProudToBeAnAmerican (REMEMBER CHIK-FIL-A!)
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To: lasereye

Better late than never...as the sheep divide from the goats we will see more of this. Ultimately, the TRUTH is a razor’s edge and no man can sit astride it.


16 posted on 09/29/2012 8:29:19 PM PDT by One Name
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To: lasereye
My wife’s old friend told her that she and her boyfriend went to the Obama 2016 movie. He voted for Obama in 2008. After seeing the film he says Obama frightens him. Now he’s trying to get other people to see it.

The 2016 movie will do that to you. Take a few of your undecided friends to the movie, make it a dare if you have to.

17 posted on 09/29/2012 8:33:15 PM PDT by Irish Eyes
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To: AndyTheBear
RE :”What if you have 3 or more kids? Oh wait, is a China-like birth policy next?

No, libs would oppose that but they might give us a tax credit for not having kids, and for having vasectomies and abortions. Maybe it will pay for our Obama-care fine.

18 posted on 09/29/2012 8:33:15 PM PDT by sickoflibs (Romney is still a liberal. Just watch him. (Obama-ney Care ))
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To: Rockingham
As for the polls, I suspect that much of Obama's seeming rise is due to Republicans tending not to answer the telephone for pollsters due to the torrent of political calls.

You hit the nail on the head. I regularly donate, and work for state and local races. I am just plain tired of the "junk" email and phone calls. My stock answer is "I am voting ABO" and then I ask that they put me on the do not call list.

There is one major issue that has not been addressed in the polling data and that is specific to Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. These states have a high elderly population that were sympathetic to Roosevelt. They are dying off now.

Finally, the democratic undervote in many states (particularly swing states) is well documented. In Pennsylvania it was 24 to 40% less in a closed primary. Those democrats are not voting for obama.
19 posted on 09/29/2012 8:37:18 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: lasereye
"...the left-leaning think tank..."

Now there's an oxymoron, if I ever saw one.

20 posted on 09/29/2012 8:53:35 PM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: lasereye

In Northern Virginia, I am seeing a few Romney bumper stickers and almost none for Obama. I am trying to decide whether the gullible who were rabid for O 4 years ago have changed their minds or gone underground and still plan to vote for him.


21 posted on 09/29/2012 8:55:57 PM PDT by Belle22
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To: Belle22

I agree with you about NoVA. I have not seen anywhere near the number of Obama bumper stickers or yard signs. Either people are embarrassed about supporting Obama or they are voting a different way. It is almost eerie this close to election day.


22 posted on 09/29/2012 9:05:11 PM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar
Either people are embarrassed about supporting Obama or they are voting a different way. It is almost eerie this close to election day.

I can't escape the notion that a meaningful slice of voters are telling pollsters they support Obama...while harboring their own private doubts. Nobody wants to appear "racist", y'know. These voters are probably spread throughout the demographic spectrum (including blacks).

What they might do in the privacy of the voting booth -- when a decision is finally forced upon them -- will be the opposite of their polling response in many cases.

23 posted on 09/29/2012 9:20:30 PM PDT by okie01 (THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA; Ignorance on parade.)
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To: okie01

In North Berkeley (CA) today: only a few weeks away from the election (I just received my sample ballot today) and I think I saw maybe only two or three BO bumper stickers, and no BO yard or window signs at all.


24 posted on 09/29/2012 9:27:16 PM PDT by thecodont
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To: kabar

I am from a County in MI that voted for Clinton in 96, Bush in 00 and 04 and obama in 08. Talking to the Democratic HQ last week they said in 08 they sent out over 1300 yard signs this year so far they have had requests for 80!


25 posted on 09/29/2012 9:45:19 PM PDT by Freeze923
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To: AndyTheBear

what if you have ANY kids? A smart car only seats 2.


26 posted on 09/29/2012 9:50:47 PM PDT by cableguymn (peace through strength. if they don't like you at least they will fear you.)
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To: lasereye

Heard a great line on the radio this week- forget where:

Caller said (paraphrasing)

‘How many people have you bumped into that say they didn’t vote for 0 last time but they will this time?’

Zero!


27 posted on 09/29/2012 10:05:49 PM PDT by libertarian27 (Check my profile page for the FReeper Online Cookbook 2011)
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To: lasereye

>> DECLINING DEMOCRATIC REGISTRATION?

Commie scumbags don’t vote.


28 posted on 09/29/2012 10:10:31 PM PDT by Gene Eric (Demoralization is a weapon of the enemy. Don't get it, don't spread it!)
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To: sickoflibs
Obama says you should trade in your SUV for a Smart Car. I JUST TRADED IN MY suv FOR A 2012 f150 lol
29 posted on 09/29/2012 10:14:05 PM PDT by munin
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To: munin

That’s a smart TRUCK, not a roller skate.


30 posted on 09/30/2012 6:34:45 AM PDT by Pearls Before Swine
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To: sickoflibs
Seeing one of those things in Europe is one thing but here, it's laughable and why should we? We have an abundance of oil, if Obummer will only let us get it.

This is the United States of America for Pete's sake, we've never had to retreat before but under this president we are contracting instead of expanding.

31 posted on 09/30/2012 5:53:07 PM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: Conservativegreatgrandma
RE :”Seeing one of those things in Europe is one thing but here, it's laughable and why should we? We have an abundance of oil, if Obummer will only let us get it.
This is the United States of America for Pete's sake, we've never had to retreat before but under this president we are contracting instead of expanding

Because global warming, err cooling, err change, is killing this planet. We may already be too late. If we keep this up we may have to flee this planet.

We all must sacrifice, starting with you first :)

32 posted on 09/30/2012 7:06:53 PM PDT by sickoflibs (Romney is still a liberal. Just watch him. (Obama-ney Care ))
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