Skip to comments.Rasmussen: Yes, Dems likely have 2-4 point advantage in November
Posted on 09/29/2012 8:21:34 PM PDT by smoothsailing
September 29, 2012
For all the complexities of polling, says Scott Rasmussen, there are some fairly simple numbers to remember when thinking about this years presidential race. For the last 20 years, between 37 and 39 percent of voters on Election Day have been Democrats, says the pollster. Republicans have ranged from 32 to 37 percent. Right now, our sample looks like 36 percent Republican versus 39 percent Democrat.
The bottom line, Rasmussen continues, is that there is most likely a two, three, or four percentage point advantage out there for Democrats. Thats what its been for nearly a generation; thats probably what will happen on November 6.
Given that, and factoring in independents, Rasmussens national surveys show Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by a small margin. The president has a two-point advantage in the latest Rasmussen national tracking poll, and comparably small margins in the super-swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. I think the race is tilting, just barely, in Obamas favor, with the potential to shift between now and Election Day, he says.
After some polls, particularly one from Quinnipiac and the New York Times, showed huge Obama leads in the swing states nine points in Florida and ten in Ohio theres been a contentious debate about the relationship between state polls and national polls. Romney aides constantly point reporters toward the national polls. Of course they do; those polls are closer, and at the moment the Romney campaign is fighting hard against the impression, gaining momentum in some media circles, that the race is virtually over.
Team Romney has a point. When there are national polls showing a very tight race and big swing state polls showing a blowout, something is likely wrong. If the national results are close on November 6, its very unlikely that Ohio and Florida will be blowouts. And if Ohio and Florida are blowouts, its very unlikely the national race will be close. When all is said and done, says Rasmussen, it is impossible for me to conceive of a circumstance where there is a huge discrepancy between those key states and the national numbers.
And whatever the numbers are at this moment, Rasmussen expects them to move by Election Day. In the last three elections, he notes, the polls moved against the incumbent party in the final weeks of the race. Thats not an unbreakable pattern, and it might not happen this time, but it suggests Romney will gain on Obama, at least a bit, before November 6. Of course, some major, unexpected event might move things more.
Meanwhile, Republicans across the country continue to express skepticism, scorn, and in some cases outright contempt for the polls. Last week in Ohio, voter after voter at Romney-Ryan rallies complained about the polls, with most saying they just dont believe them. Its something every pollster, left, right, and center, is hearing every day.
When polls appear to be in dispute, says Rasmussen, partisans go to the ones they like best and say they are right and everything else is wrong. Then they rationalize it. You rationalize things to fit what you want the world to be.
Identity politics. Blacks DO NOT CARE. Nor does any other group that gets locked in to voting for one party because they've been trained to hate the other. Hispanics are increasingly acting like blacks when it comes to voting habits. If Obama at a living baby on live TV, they would still vote for him. Blacks will NEVER vote Republican in our lifetime. They see conservatives as the enemy first and foremost - people who can't relate with them and might take away their freebies. Detroit, for example, is a failed city and yet the the inhabitants will keep voting Democratic no matter what (they'd actually vote for Kwame Kilpatrick again if they could). The idea that people in Democracies can be counted on to self correct is WRONG. Populations will choose the wrong course and stick with it to their demise. There is no evidence in history that people somehow can be counted on to do the right thing.
I find it surprising he has Romney up among women, and Obama up among men.
So wait...Rasmussen, the most GOP friendly pollster out there, is also wrong? So every pollster is wrong about Obama leading/winning this race? Oh vey. This is getting downright sad.
Folks on our side are now stuck disputing virtually ALL the polls.....yeah, were losing. We don’t even have Rasmussen to hang our hat on now. This is worse than I even imagined.
Yup. All of a sudden Rasmussen is a commie polling outfit that can’t be trusted sarc/ A lot of whistling past the graveyard going on.
Beware the Nincompoops.
I can't imagine a more unbiased analysis than what Rasmussen said in this article. He even said the incumbent is generally expected to lose some ground in the final weeks. It only makes sense that as the challenger gets more well-known, he will gain some support.
IMO the race hasn't even begun until the first debate. Problem is, Romney's performances were so weak in the primary debates that he suffered big losses after getting hammered by Newt and Santorum in them, and he wanted to stop doing debates by about February because he knew they were likely to go against him. He did manage to do two good "comeback" debates against first Newt and Santorum, but only after suffering huge election losses to them. His natural tendency was not to be tough with his opponents, until they had made him suffer a big loss. So, in a way, the best place for Romney to be going into the first debate, based on his history, is in a losing position in the polls. I just hope it doesn't take losing the first debate for him to decide to make a "comeback" play. And he won't have Ron Paul to play tag-team with like they did against Santorum especially.
‘I just do not see the excitement from the Democrat base.”
Since a goodly percentage of it is zombies, that’s not surprising.
This is all mind numbing. I don’t think I’m stupid, but I don’t understand this at all.
It appears to me that Rasmussen contradicts its on information. See: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation
he is also winning independents and more GOPers than mugabe is winning dems.
Dear God in heaven,
Please help these FR folks get through October intact. Cuz they are losin it big time.
Thank you Lord.
Listen my dear FRIENDS.. All of these people may be honestly expressing the facts as they are seeing them today.. The one thing I know for sure is I WILL NOT LET THIS THING HAPPEN BECAUSE I DIDN’T DO EVERYTHING I COULD TO SHOVE IT BACK AT THEM.. HARD!!!
I told my kids that I would personally kick their butts if they didn’t get to the polls and at least bring someone with them..
I’m digging deep and sending money to a swing state candidate, house and senate.. Also I am volunteering at a poll in a heavily Democrat district..
NOT ON MY WATCH!
"The Democrats' drop in registered voters coincides with a gain in independent voters...There are about half a million more independents now than there were just for years ago."
And guess which way the Indies are going?
Scott, put away the bong.
Trust your gut.
The anti’s are quite motivated.
Ohio is not alone [in Dem registration decline]. An August study by the left-leaning think tank Third Way showed that the Democratic voter registration decline in eight key swing states outnumbered the Republican decline by a 10-to-one ratio. In Florida, Democratic registration is down 4.9 percent, in Iowa down 9.5 percent. And in New Hampshire, its down down 19.7 percent.
I think even Rasmussen has no clue what he is talking about this time around. In 2008 it took a perfect storm of anger at Bush, unusually high enthusiasm by young people who thought Obama was “cool”, blacks who foolishly thought that Obama was going to put gas in their cars and pay their bills, and whites on the left (and even some on the right) who felt warm and fuzzy about voting for a black president. It is impossible for support for Obama to be any higher than it was in 2008. Impossible.
Since then, we have the incredible rise of the Tea Party, disillusionment of blacks and the youth vote, and the opening of the eyes of most whites to what Obama truly represents. We have a crumbling economy, and international relations in utter chaos, yet Rasmussen and other pollsters seriously believe that we are going to see a similar result in 2012 to that in 2008? Complete and utter nonsense.
Obama will lose; the only question is the magnitude of the loss.
Thanks for the link! I was looking for that chart.
Ras should be using R+4 but he must think that’s an outlier, so he’s using D+3 for his election assumptions.
The MSM is pounding Ras for using D+3 because they think the turnout will be greater for the Dems than 2008 i.e D+7, which is fantasy. There are NO signs on this happening.
So D+3 is the Ras baseline, based on his assumptions. I think he will be wrong, but he’ll probably be less wrong than all the other pollsters combined.
maybe...i understand your point as i remember four years ago all the reports about the hillary voters who were going to vote against obama, which never materialized...that said i think this is different....Romney instills little enthusiasm in people but obama’s incompetence is going to make people vote against obama including the Repubs who did not vote or even voted for obozo four years ago as well as the independents...