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Rasmussen: Yes, Dems likely have 2-4 point advantage in November
Washington Examiner ^ | 9-29-2012 | Byron York

Posted on 09/29/2012 8:21:34 PM PDT by smoothsailing

September 29, 2012

Rasmussen: Yes, Dems likely have 2-4 point advantage in November

Byron York

For all the complexities of polling, says Scott Rasmussen, there are some fairly simple numbers to remember when thinking about this year’s presidential race. “For the last 20 years, between 37 and 39 percent of voters on Election Day have been Democrats,” says the pollster. “Republicans have ranged from 32 to 37 percent. Right now, our sample looks like 36 percent Republican versus 39 percent Democrat.”

The bottom line, Rasmussen continues, is that there is most likely a two, three, or four percentage point advantage out there for Democrats. That’s what it’s been for nearly a generation; that’s probably what will happen on November 6.

Given that, and factoring in independents, Rasmussen’s national surveys show Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by a small margin. The president has a two-point advantage in the latest Rasmussen national tracking poll, and comparably small margins in the super-swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. “I think the race is tilting, just barely, in Obama’s favor, with the potential to shift between now and Election Day,” he says.

After some polls, particularly one from Quinnipiac and the New York Times, showed huge Obama leads in the swing states — nine points in Florida and ten in Ohio — there’s been a contentious debate about the relationship between state polls and national polls. Romney aides constantly point reporters toward the national polls. Of course they do; those polls are closer, and at the moment the Romney campaign is fighting hard against the impression, gaining momentum in some media circles, that the race is virtually over.

Team Romney has a point. When there are national polls showing a very tight race and big swing state polls showing a blowout, something is likely wrong. If the national results are close on November 6, it’s very unlikely that Ohio and Florida will be blowouts. And if Ohio and Florida are blowouts, it’s very unlikely the national race will be close. “When all is said and done,” says Rasmussen, “it is impossible for me to conceive of a circumstance where there is a huge discrepancy between those key states and the national numbers.”

And whatever the numbers are at this moment, Rasmussen expects them to move by Election Day. In the last three elections, he notes, the polls moved against the incumbent party in the final weeks of the race. That’s not an unbreakable pattern, and it might not happen this time, but it suggests Romney will gain on Obama, at least a bit, before November 6. Of course, some major, unexpected event might move things more.

Meanwhile, Republicans across the country continue to express skepticism, scorn, and in some cases outright contempt for the polls. Last week in Ohio, voter after voter at Romney-Ryan rallies complained about the polls, with most saying they just don’t believe them. It’s something every pollster, left, right, and center, is hearing every day.

“When polls appear to be in dispute,” says Rasmussen, “partisans go to the ones they like best and say they are right and everything else is wrong. Then they rationalize it. You rationalize things to fit what you want the world to be.”


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; obama; polls; rasmussen; riggedpolls; romney
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1 posted on 09/29/2012 8:21:38 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing

BS!


2 posted on 09/29/2012 8:23:35 PM PDT by bcsco (Bourbon gets better with age...I age better with Bourbon.)
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To: smoothsailing

After Nov 6th, Rasmussen will have some splaining to do.

It will be fun.


3 posted on 09/29/2012 8:24:09 PM PDT by Puckster
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To: smoothsailing
I am confused here.

Don't Rasumssen's own polls show that the idenfification edge is now with Republicans?

I hate the Media. I think most polls are biased. But I also don't want to be "spun" by my own allies. Where are we to get truly objective analysis?

4 posted on 09/29/2012 8:28:54 PM PDT by Lysandru
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To: smoothsailing
I just do not see the excitement from the Democrat base. The desire t vote is very strong with the Republicans though.

We shall see how the debates go

Though I am starting to see more O’Bumbler/BomeHead Signs.

5 posted on 09/29/2012 8:29:13 PM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: Puckster
After Nov 6th, Rasmussen will have some splaining to do.

So wait...Rasmussen, the most GOP friendly pollster out there, is also wrong? So every pollster is wrong about Obama leading/winning this race? Oh vey. This is getting downright sad.

Folks on our side are now stuck disputing virtually ALL the polls.....yeah, were losing. We don't even have Rasmussen to hang our hat on now. This is worse than I even imagined.

6 posted on 09/29/2012 8:30:09 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: smoothsailing; profit_guy
Profit guy posted the details of Ras's latest tracking poll...

Amazing this guy has a 96% approval rating among blacks. 68% strongly approve of the clown. The unemployment rate has hit them harder than any demographic except, perhaps, the young. And yet they're standing by him. Nuts.

7 posted on 09/29/2012 8:30:29 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper

OTOH, look at that chart above. Romney is pulling 15% of the White Democrats.

Nice.


8 posted on 09/29/2012 8:33:29 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: smoothsailing

Oh, great. More good news. sarc/


9 posted on 09/29/2012 8:34:31 PM PDT by chessplayer
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To: smoothsailing
What did Rasmussen predict the turnout for the 2010 election would be and what were the percentages? Hmmmm.
10 posted on 09/29/2012 8:34:39 PM PDT by MasterGunner01
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To: bcsco
Rasmussen: Yes, Dems likely have 2-4 point advantage in November

Scott Rastaman has been smoking something. Reagan was tremendously outpolled even on the very eve of the election and he destroyed Carter. He even took Illinois. The current polls have to over-sample Democrats and employ 2008, not 2010, Democrat voter turn out numbers just to keep Obama and Romney neck and neck. Fewer people self-identify as Democrats than Republicans. About twice as many Americans describe themselves as conservatives as liberals. There's a shrinking number of self-identified Democrats and a growing number of self-identified Republicans. The number of "Hey, let's give Obama a chance and see what he can do" voters will be drastically reduced. The number of "I'm a college student voting for hope and change" voters will be sharply down. The number of "I voted for Obama because I don't want people to think I'm a racist" voters will be seriously eroded by the "I said I voted for Obama because I didn't want people to think I'm a racist but this guy has completely effed us over so I really voted for Romney" voters.
11 posted on 09/29/2012 8:34:40 PM PDT by aruanan
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To: Longbow1969

Jeez. I’m replying to no one in particular.

Ras jumps around, within a narrow band. Romney was ahead with leaners earlier in the week. When he’s ahead again in a few days do we say `whew,’ now we’re gonna win? If the Dem turnout surpasses the Republican turnout by one two or three, we win. If it’s four, it’s truly a tossup. Five or better, we lose.


12 posted on 09/29/2012 8:35:32 PM PDT by nailspitter
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To: Lysandru
Don't Rasumssen's own polls show that the idenfification edge is now with Republicans?

Yes, his August party affiliation polls showed the Republicans with a couple point lead, with a big upswing. I have not seen the September numbers, which I suspect are not out, and I am not sure how he came up with the party affiliation numbers anyway. I suppose it is possible he does not just use his affiliation numbers directly in his party affiliation models for some reason or another that I suppose only he could explain.

13 posted on 09/29/2012 8:36:20 PM PDT by AndyTheBear
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To: bcsco

Ras national poll has a Dem +2.5% to 4% turnout model over Rs for 2012.

I think it will be at least even (like 2004) to R +2%.

Rasmussen last self partisan ID of R +4.3% (37.6%) over Dems (33.3%) with a sample size of 15,000.

Rasmussen ignores his month to month partisan poll because he has already set his baseline for this election.


14 posted on 09/29/2012 8:36:34 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Jim from C-Town

We shall see how the debates go


And you can bet your last penny obama will be provided with all the questions in advance so he will have well prepared answers.


15 posted on 09/29/2012 8:37:11 PM PDT by chessplayer
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To: Puckster
simple really...there ARE more rats than pubs...there ARE more takers now than givers....

still think Rom's chances are very, very good....

16 posted on 09/29/2012 8:37:46 PM PDT by cherry
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Geez, I wonder if anyone here has read past the headline?

What’s being reported here is good news. Everyone had been assuming that Rasmussen was weighting it plus 4 Republican. He has it weighted +3 Rat, and Bambi is still ahead by only 1 or 2 points.

The polls showing Bambi with ludicrous leads have been +11 or +12 rat.


17 posted on 09/29/2012 8:38:06 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: smoothsailing

Ras is hedging his bets but his D+3 turnout model doesn’t square with a 14% enthusiasm gap of Republicans over Democrats from today’s Gallup/USAToday poll. If Gallup is wrong, it’s not wrong by 14 percentage points!

From Gallup’s site:
October 2004, Dem and Rep enthusiasm were equal, and Republicans won
October 2008, Dem=71%, Rep=51% enthusiastic, and Democrats won
this Last week 2012, Dems=48%, Reps = 64% enthusiastic, and who will win??


18 posted on 09/29/2012 8:38:26 PM PDT by plushaye (Election 2012 Prayer Force)
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To: SoFloFreeper

I believe the point here is that the Democrats have an advantage in numbers, not that voting will be that way. I could be wrong, but if the 15% of white democrats for Romney (as posted above) is correct, Romney wins. I still think he will anyway..


19 posted on 09/29/2012 8:38:33 PM PDT by cardinal4 (If Baraq Hussein Obama had a son he would look like Rageboy)
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To: bcsco

From what I’ve read, this is usually the case- does NOT mean that Obama will win. Republicans are more motivated this year.


20 posted on 09/29/2012 8:38:45 PM PDT by PghBaldy (I am sick of Obama's and Hillary's apologies to muslims, especially after 11 September 2012.)
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