Skip to comments.Rasmussen: Yes, Dems likely have 2-4 point advantage in November
Posted on 09/29/2012 8:21:34 PM PDT by smoothsailing
September 29, 2012
For all the complexities of polling, says Scott Rasmussen, there are some fairly simple numbers to remember when thinking about this years presidential race. For the last 20 years, between 37 and 39 percent of voters on Election Day have been Democrats, says the pollster. Republicans have ranged from 32 to 37 percent. Right now, our sample looks like 36 percent Republican versus 39 percent Democrat.
The bottom line, Rasmussen continues, is that there is most likely a two, three, or four percentage point advantage out there for Democrats. Thats what its been for nearly a generation; thats probably what will happen on November 6.
Given that, and factoring in independents, Rasmussens national surveys show Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by a small margin. The president has a two-point advantage in the latest Rasmussen national tracking poll, and comparably small margins in the super-swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. I think the race is tilting, just barely, in Obamas favor, with the potential to shift between now and Election Day, he says.
After some polls, particularly one from Quinnipiac and the New York Times, showed huge Obama leads in the swing states nine points in Florida and ten in Ohio theres been a contentious debate about the relationship between state polls and national polls. Romney aides constantly point reporters toward the national polls. Of course they do; those polls are closer, and at the moment the Romney campaign is fighting hard against the impression, gaining momentum in some media circles, that the race is virtually over.
Team Romney has a point. When there are national polls showing a very tight race and big swing state polls showing a blowout, something is likely wrong. If the national results are close on November 6, its very unlikely that Ohio and Florida will be blowouts. And if Ohio and Florida are blowouts, its very unlikely the national race will be close. When all is said and done, says Rasmussen, it is impossible for me to conceive of a circumstance where there is a huge discrepancy between those key states and the national numbers.
And whatever the numbers are at this moment, Rasmussen expects them to move by Election Day. In the last three elections, he notes, the polls moved against the incumbent party in the final weeks of the race. Thats not an unbreakable pattern, and it might not happen this time, but it suggests Romney will gain on Obama, at least a bit, before November 6. Of course, some major, unexpected event might move things more.
Meanwhile, Republicans across the country continue to express skepticism, scorn, and in some cases outright contempt for the polls. Last week in Ohio, voter after voter at Romney-Ryan rallies complained about the polls, with most saying they just dont believe them. Its something every pollster, left, right, and center, is hearing every day.
When polls appear to be in dispute, says Rasmussen, partisans go to the ones they like best and say they are right and everything else is wrong. Then they rationalize it. You rationalize things to fit what you want the world to be.
See Red Steel’s post #14. It helped me understand a little better what Ras is doing.
Pollster seem not to be able to account or are poor at accounting for voter apathy or voter enthusiasm.
Rant after Nov 6th.
I wear a kilt...not a skirt.
Exactly! Sheesh, who needs the media to depress Republicans when we'll do it ourselves?
The reality is that turnout after 1980 has ALWAYS ranged from even to D+4, except for 2008. There is some evidence that this could be an usual outlier year where Rs outnumber Ds, but that WILL be an outlier.
We also know that the polls USUALLY shift towards the challenger down the final stretch. We also know that those who are say they are undecided down the final stretch USUALLY break 2:1 for the challenger. We know that Romney is adopting a late "daisy cutter" strategy designed to maximize those effects. With the Ras interview, we also now know that there is room for a more Republican electorate than Ras predicts RIGHT NOW without being unusual.
Long story short, Scott Rasmussen is a pollster, not a cheerleader. However, what he has to say is pretty good news for Romney. It makes no sense to pile on him because he doesn't draw a conclusion that MIGHT be true but for which there is no evidence to indicate WILL be true. Republican turnout has never exceeded Dem, so he can't say that any data he has indicate it will this time.
I have no doubts.
(”Then they rationalize it. You rationalize things to fit what you want the world to be.)
Actually, that’s a pretty description of what the pollsters are doing, not Republican voters!
Rasmussen kept using a D+2 assumption even after its August polls showed likely voters to be R+4, probably just to play it safe, since D+2 is closer to the historical norm (it was D+3 or so in 2000, even in 2004, and D+7 in 2008). It is possible that his September party-ID numbers (which he will release this coming week) will not be as Republican, since the RNC was in August and the DNC was in September. If the electorate on Election Day ends up being D+2 or less, Romney will probably win; if it’s D+3, it will be very close, à la 2000, and it could go either way; and if it’s D+4 or more, Obama will likely win.
What is clear is that the electorate will not be D+7 this year, much less the D+8 through D+12 that some ridiculous pollsters have been using.
I’m hoping the final for 2012 is D+2 or less. That should be enough to win with a comfortable cushion and stave off challenges and dirty tricks.
I’m with you on the enthusiasm level, it’s seems huge for ABO. What I’m not sure of is the enthusiasm for Romney, I’m just hoping folks see him as the only choice.
There may be a 2-4% advantage for Dem voting in Nov. but 3% more Dems will vote for Romney than Republicans for Obama.
“So wait...Rasmussen, the most GOP friendly pollster out there, is also wrong?”
College football’s `Bowl Championship Series’ also has scientific credentials using research methodology recognized by political polling organizations.
Not surprisingly the Associated Pimps’ are also involved in both venues, providing their non-biased, impartial input. The BCS is a large pile of bovine excrement.
Saying, “They can’t all be wrong” begs the question. Assuming he isn’t found in bed with a live boy or dead girl, Romney wins hands down, tomorrow and in five weeks.
Don’t buy the BS. They’re all wrong.
When the dust settles we get to kiss fat sister Sue, rather than Aunt Doris with the running lip chancre. Yippee.
Did you read in my post that indies would break for Obama? NO! Actually I agree with your points in your post.
Yet, we get these stories only minutes before.
Sounds like Scott is pulling a number out of his ear. Why is he sure that the Repubs won’t show up?
Pray for America
I'd put it higher than 3%, maybe 5-6%. Check out the chart in post #7, 15% of white male Dems for Romney!
Very impressive details. Looking inside at the Extended data, this is 88% solid or lean Romney for GOP voters vs. 85% solid or lean Obama for Democrats.
Romney is on more solid ground right now by far. The world is falling apart around Obama, whether the media reports it or not. I don’t see an upside for him. The race is Romney’s to win or lose.
It will be the independents who break for Romney, who will decide the election.
Romney simply cannot generate the necessary level of enthusiasm to win.
I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't believe that Romney has it in him to unseat the incumbent.
How did we win any election in the last 20 years if the Democrats were always outvoting us?
Something wrong with the Gender numbers. He is showing Romney down to Obama among men and up over Obama among women... He either made a mistake in the posting of the data i.e. reversed the results or the men who answered the poll were much less Whites than their actual numbers in the population...