Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Rasmussen: Yes, Dems likely have 2-4 point advantage in November
Washington Examiner ^ | 9-29-2012 | Byron York

Posted on 09/29/2012 8:21:34 PM PDT by smoothsailing

click here to read article


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-100101-150151-159 next last

1 posted on 09/29/2012 8:21:38 PM PDT by smoothsailing
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

BS!


2 posted on 09/29/2012 8:23:35 PM PDT by bcsco (Bourbon gets better with age...I age better with Bourbon.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

After Nov 6th, Rasmussen will have some splaining to do.

It will be fun.


3 posted on 09/29/2012 8:24:09 PM PDT by Puckster
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing
I am confused here.

Don't Rasumssen's own polls show that the idenfification edge is now with Republicans?

I hate the Media. I think most polls are biased. But I also don't want to be "spun" by my own allies. Where are we to get truly objective analysis?

4 posted on 09/29/2012 8:28:54 PM PDT by Lysandru
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing
I just do not see the excitement from the Democrat base. The desire t vote is very strong with the Republicans though.

We shall see how the debates go

Though I am starting to see more O’Bumbler/BomeHead Signs.

5 posted on 09/29/2012 8:29:13 PM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Puckster
After Nov 6th, Rasmussen will have some splaining to do.

So wait...Rasmussen, the most GOP friendly pollster out there, is also wrong? So every pollster is wrong about Obama leading/winning this race? Oh vey. This is getting downright sad.

Folks on our side are now stuck disputing virtually ALL the polls.....yeah, were losing. We don't even have Rasmussen to hang our hat on now. This is worse than I even imagined.

6 posted on 09/29/2012 8:30:09 PM PDT by Longbow1969
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing; profit_guy
Profit guy posted the details of Ras's latest tracking poll...

Amazing this guy has a 96% approval rating among blacks. 68% strongly approve of the clown. The unemployment rate has hit them harder than any demographic except, perhaps, the young. And yet they're standing by him. Nuts.

7 posted on 09/29/2012 8:30:29 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper

OTOH, look at that chart above. Romney is pulling 15% of the White Democrats.

Nice.


8 posted on 09/29/2012 8:33:29 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

Oh, great. More good news. sarc/


9 posted on 09/29/2012 8:34:31 PM PDT by chessplayer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing
What did Rasmussen predict the turnout for the 2010 election would be and what were the percentages? Hmmmm.
10 posted on 09/29/2012 8:34:39 PM PDT by MasterGunner01
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: bcsco
Rasmussen: Yes, Dems likely have 2-4 point advantage in November

Scott Rastaman has been smoking something. Reagan was tremendously outpolled even on the very eve of the election and he destroyed Carter. He even took Illinois. The current polls have to over-sample Democrats and employ 2008, not 2010, Democrat voter turn out numbers just to keep Obama and Romney neck and neck. Fewer people self-identify as Democrats than Republicans. About twice as many Americans describe themselves as conservatives as liberals. There's a shrinking number of self-identified Democrats and a growing number of self-identified Republicans. The number of "Hey, let's give Obama a chance and see what he can do" voters will be drastically reduced. The number of "I'm a college student voting for hope and change" voters will be sharply down. The number of "I voted for Obama because I don't want people to think I'm a racist" voters will be seriously eroded by the "I said I voted for Obama because I didn't want people to think I'm a racist but this guy has completely effed us over so I really voted for Romney" voters.
11 posted on 09/29/2012 8:34:40 PM PDT by aruanan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Longbow1969

Jeez. I’m replying to no one in particular.

Ras jumps around, within a narrow band. Romney was ahead with leaners earlier in the week. When he’s ahead again in a few days do we say `whew,’ now we’re gonna win? If the Dem turnout surpasses the Republican turnout by one two or three, we win. If it’s four, it’s truly a tossup. Five or better, we lose.


12 posted on 09/29/2012 8:35:32 PM PDT by nailspitter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Lysandru
Don't Rasumssen's own polls show that the idenfification edge is now with Republicans?

Yes, his August party affiliation polls showed the Republicans with a couple point lead, with a big upswing. I have not seen the September numbers, which I suspect are not out, and I am not sure how he came up with the party affiliation numbers anyway. I suppose it is possible he does not just use his affiliation numbers directly in his party affiliation models for some reason or another that I suppose only he could explain.

13 posted on 09/29/2012 8:36:20 PM PDT by AndyTheBear
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: bcsco

Ras national poll has a Dem +2.5% to 4% turnout model over Rs for 2012.

I think it will be at least even (like 2004) to R +2%.

Rasmussen last self partisan ID of R +4.3% (37.6%) over Dems (33.3%) with a sample size of 15,000.

Rasmussen ignores his month to month partisan poll because he has already set his baseline for this election.


14 posted on 09/29/2012 8:36:34 PM PDT by Red Steel
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Jim from C-Town

We shall see how the debates go


And you can bet your last penny obama will be provided with all the questions in advance so he will have well prepared answers.


15 posted on 09/29/2012 8:37:11 PM PDT by chessplayer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Puckster
simple really...there ARE more rats than pubs...there ARE more takers now than givers....

still think Rom's chances are very, very good....

16 posted on 09/29/2012 8:37:46 PM PDT by cherry
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

Geez, I wonder if anyone here has read past the headline?

What’s being reported here is good news. Everyone had been assuming that Rasmussen was weighting it plus 4 Republican. He has it weighted +3 Rat, and Bambi is still ahead by only 1 or 2 points.

The polls showing Bambi with ludicrous leads have been +11 or +12 rat.


17 posted on 09/29/2012 8:38:06 PM PDT by Arthurio
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

Ras is hedging his bets but his D+3 turnout model doesn’t square with a 14% enthusiasm gap of Republicans over Democrats from today’s Gallup/USAToday poll. If Gallup is wrong, it’s not wrong by 14 percentage points!

From Gallup’s site:
October 2004, Dem and Rep enthusiasm were equal, and Republicans won
October 2008, Dem=71%, Rep=51% enthusiastic, and Democrats won
this Last week 2012, Dems=48%, Reps = 64% enthusiastic, and who will win??


18 posted on 09/29/2012 8:38:26 PM PDT by plushaye (Election 2012 Prayer Force)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper

I believe the point here is that the Democrats have an advantage in numbers, not that voting will be that way. I could be wrong, but if the 15% of white democrats for Romney (as posted above) is correct, Romney wins. I still think he will anyway..


19 posted on 09/29/2012 8:38:33 PM PDT by cardinal4 (If Baraq Hussein Obama had a son he would look like Rageboy)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: bcsco

From what I’ve read, this is usually the case- does NOT mean that Obama will win. Republicans are more motivated this year.


20 posted on 09/29/2012 8:38:45 PM PDT by PghBaldy (I am sick of Obama's and Hillary's apologies to muslims, especially after 11 September 2012.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper
The unemployment rate has hit them harder than any demographic except, perhaps, the young. And yet they're standing by him. Nuts.

Identity politics. Blacks DO NOT CARE. Nor does any other group that gets locked in to voting for one party because they've been trained to hate the other. Hispanics are increasingly acting like blacks when it comes to voting habits. If Obama at a living baby on live TV, they would still vote for him. Blacks will NEVER vote Republican in our lifetime. They see conservatives as the enemy first and foremost - people who can't relate with them and might take away their freebies. Detroit, for example, is a failed city and yet the the inhabitants will keep voting Democratic no matter what (they'd actually vote for Kwame Kilpatrick again if they could). The idea that people in Democracies can be counted on to self correct is WRONG. Populations will choose the wrong course and stick with it to their demise. There is no evidence in history that people somehow can be counted on to do the right thing.

21 posted on 09/29/2012 8:38:58 PM PDT by Longbow1969
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper

I find it surprising he has Romney up among women, and Obama up among men.


22 posted on 09/29/2012 8:39:07 PM PDT by AndyTheBear
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Longbow1969

So wait...Rasmussen, the most GOP friendly pollster out there, is also wrong? So every pollster is wrong about Obama leading/winning this race? Oh vey. This is getting downright sad.

Folks on our side are now stuck disputing virtually ALL the polls.....yeah, were losing. We don’t even have Rasmussen to hang our hat on now. This is worse than I even imagined.


Yup. All of a sudden Rasmussen is a commie polling outfit that can’t be trusted sarc/ A lot of whistling past the graveyard going on.


23 posted on 09/29/2012 8:40:30 PM PDT by chessplayer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

Beware the Nincompoops.


24 posted on 09/29/2012 8:40:47 PM PDT by Berlin_Freeper (Obama at the UN: The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Longbow1969

I can't imagine a more unbiased analysis than what Rasmussen said in this article. He even said the incumbent is generally expected to lose some ground in the final weeks. It only makes sense that as the challenger gets more well-known, he will gain some support.

IMO the race hasn't even begun until the first debate. Problem is, Romney's performances were so weak in the primary debates that he suffered big losses after getting hammered by Newt and Santorum in them, and he wanted to stop doing debates by about February because he knew they were likely to go against him. He did manage to do two good "comeback" debates against first Newt and Santorum, but only after suffering huge election losses to them. His natural tendency was not to be tough with his opponents, until they had made him suffer a big loss. So, in a way, the best place for Romney to be going into the first debate, based on his history, is in a losing position in the polls. I just hope it doesn't take losing the first debate for him to decide to make a "comeback" play. And he won't have Ron Paul to play tag-team with like they did against Santorum especially.

25 posted on 09/29/2012 8:41:17 PM PDT by JediJones (KARL ROVE: "And remember, this year, no one is seriously talking about ending abortion.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Jim from C-Town

‘I just do not see the excitement from the Democrat base.”

Since a goodly percentage of it is zombies, that’s not surprising.


26 posted on 09/29/2012 8:41:48 PM PDT by Salamander (Can't sleep, the clowns will eat me)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

Poll Ping.


27 posted on 09/29/2012 8:41:48 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

This is all mind numbing. I don’t think I’m stupid, but I don’t understand this at all.

It appears to me that Rasmussen contradicts its on information. See: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation


28 posted on 09/29/2012 8:42:05 PM PDT by jimbobfoster
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper

he is also winning independents and more GOPers than mugabe is winning dems.


29 posted on 09/29/2012 8:42:56 PM PDT by Perdogg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

Dear God in heaven,

Please help these FR folks get through October intact. Cuz they are losin it big time.

Thank you Lord.

Amen


30 posted on 09/29/2012 8:43:52 PM PDT by SaintDismas
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

Listen my dear FRIENDS.. All of these people may be honestly expressing the facts as they are seeing them today.. The one thing I know for sure is I WILL NOT LET THIS THING HAPPEN BECAUSE I DIDN’T DO EVERYTHING I COULD TO SHOVE IT BACK AT THEM.. HARD!!!

I told my kids that I would personally kick their butts if they didn’t get to the polls and at least bring someone with them..

I’m digging deep and sending money to a swing state candidate, house and senate.. Also I am volunteering at a poll in a heavily Democrat district..

NOT ON MY WATCH!


31 posted on 09/29/2012 8:44:34 PM PDT by carlo3b (Less Government, more Fiber..)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jimbobfoster
You are nonplussed.
32 posted on 09/29/2012 8:45:02 PM PDT by Berlin_Freeper (Obama at the UN: The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing
That’s what it’s been for nearly a generation (37 and 39% Dem; 32 to 37% Rep); that’s probably what will happen on November 6.

Meanwhile...

Drop in Ohio voter registration, especially in Dem strongholds, mirrors nationwide trend

"The Democrats' drop in registered voters coincides with a gain in independent voters...There are about half a million more independents now than there were just for years ago."

And guess which way the Indies are going?

Scott, put away the bong.

33 posted on 09/29/2012 8:45:13 PM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Lysandru; All
there's a big enthusiasm gap and potential voter edge for the GOP...that said, Rasmussen is doing his best to stay on the historical line and i don't blame him for that....our job is to blow that historical line out of whack and make sure we defeat not only obozo but the 2-4% advantage the rats have had over us the past 50 years...
34 posted on 09/29/2012 8:45:45 PM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: aruanan

Trust your gut.

The anti’s are quite motivated.


35 posted on 09/29/2012 8:46:01 PM PDT by One Name (Ultimately, the TRUTH is a razor's edge and no man can sit astride it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing
“For the last 20 years, between 37 and 39 percent of voters on Election Day have been Democrats,” says the pollster. “Republicans have ranged from 32 to 37 percent. Right now, our sample looks like 36 percent Republican versus 39 percent Democrat.”

Hey, Scott! What about 2010? Was it all the "independent voters" that destroyed Democrats across the country at every level of government? Have things gotten any better since then or worse? Worse. Is Obamacare still a threat? Even more now than ever. Has Barry turned out to be more hope and changey or even more wacko racist and divisive? He's shown himself to be a do nothing but golf and blather guy campaigning as though he's the challenger instead of the incumbent with a really, really bad record. Do you think the 2010 voters are just going to stay at home? Since WWII there has been only 1 Democrat to win a second term--Bill Clinton, and he was running against an elderly "It's my turn now" candidate on a record that had been secured by hard choices forced on him by the 1994 Republican takeover of the House.
36 posted on 09/29/2012 8:46:56 PM PDT by aruanan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing
Also, MASSIVE DECLINE in Democrat Voter Registration in 8 Swing States

Ohio is not alone [in Dem registration decline]. An August study by the left-leaning think tank Third Way showed that the Democratic voter registration decline in eight key swing states outnumbered the Republican decline by a 10-to-one ratio. In Florida, Democratic registration is down 4.9 percent, in Iowa down 9.5 percent. And in New Hampshire, it’s down down 19.7 percent.

37 posted on 09/29/2012 8:47:14 PM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

I think even Rasmussen has no clue what he is talking about this time around. In 2008 it took a perfect storm of anger at Bush, unusually high enthusiasm by young people who thought Obama was “cool”, blacks who foolishly thought that Obama was going to put gas in their cars and pay their bills, and whites on the left (and even some on the right) who felt warm and fuzzy about voting for a black president. It is impossible for support for Obama to be any higher than it was in 2008. Impossible.

Since then, we have the incredible rise of the Tea Party, disillusionment of blacks and the youth vote, and the opening of the eyes of most whites to what Obama truly represents. We have a crumbling economy, and international relations in utter chaos, yet Rasmussen and other pollsters seriously believe that we are going to see a similar result in 2012 to that in 2008? Complete and utter nonsense.

Obama will lose; the only question is the magnitude of the loss.


38 posted on 09/29/2012 8:47:34 PM PDT by noiseman (The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: jimbobfoster

Thanks for the link! I was looking for that chart.

Ras should be using R+4 but he must think that’s an outlier, so he’s using D+3 for his election assumptions.

The MSM is pounding Ras for using D+3 because they think the turnout will be greater for the Dems than 2008 i.e D+7, which is fantasy. There are NO signs on this happening.

So D+3 is the Ras baseline, based on his assumptions. I think he will be wrong, but he’ll probably be less wrong than all the other pollsters combined.


39 posted on 09/29/2012 8:49:16 PM PDT by plushaye (Election 2012 Prayer Force)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: Longbow1969

maybe...i understand your point as i remember four years ago all the reports about the hillary voters who were going to vote against obama, which never materialized...that said i think this is different....Romney instills little enthusiasm in people but obama’s incompetence is going to make people vote against obama including the Repubs who did not vote or even voted for obozo four years ago as well as the independents...


40 posted on 09/29/2012 8:50:35 PM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper

“Of course, some major, unexpected event might move things more.”

In a rational world, Benghazi would have already been such an event if the economy had not already buried Obama. We are apparently living in a world where people live in their own cocoons, untouched by any reality that doesn’t come through their iPhone, TV-DWTS, managed news world.


41 posted on 09/29/2012 8:50:56 PM PDT by JimSEA
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

That doesn’t jibe with current registration figures at all. Are they suing him, too?


42 posted on 09/29/2012 8:51:09 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing
Rasmussen pollsters, hard at work: 1st pollster: Our results, man--they look like BS. 2nd pollster: You know, you're right. They smell like BS too! 3rd pollster: Now that you mention it, they taste like BS as well. ALL: Good thing we didn't step in it! 1st pollster: But I can see November from here. 2nd pollster: I can smell it! 3rd pollster......
43 posted on 09/29/2012 8:51:37 PM PDT by tumblindice (America's founding fathers: all armed conservatives)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Lysandru; All

Do not forget there are independents beyond the repubs and democrats. If maximum dems (39%) and maximum repubs (37%) turn out, there is still 24% still to vote. Those are the block of voters who always decide who wins.


44 posted on 09/29/2012 8:52:36 PM PDT by entropy12
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Longbow1969

No pollster is always accurate. I recall Ras was a darling around here during Bush vs. Gore and he was off by about 5% in that race.


45 posted on 09/29/2012 8:54:51 PM PDT by Red Steel
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: JediJones

Good points Jedi. Mitt knows he is behind so I expect him to be tough. We shall see. I am praying Mitt really brings it, but I just don’t know if he has it in him. At this point the man has a tough task. His campaign has meandered about and stood for little more than “we’re not Obama” so far. That obviously isn’t working and I am just not sure Romney is ideological enough to both call out Obama on his failed liberal policies AND spell out why conservatism is a superior governing philosophy (with some short sound bites people can remember).


46 posted on 09/29/2012 8:54:57 PM PDT by Longbow1969
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: Jet Jaguar

At this point, I think we have to hang our hat on whether or not the people being polled are representative of a larger sample or not.

Don’t try and sniff a victory out in the polls. Be patient, and JUST TURN OUT.


47 posted on 09/29/2012 8:55:20 PM PDT by Cruising For Freedom (Don't be the proof that MSM PsyOps works.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: smoothsailing

I think that Scott Rasmussen is correct in his projection of voting by ‘party affiliation’. He hedges down as low as +2 democrat advantage. What the polling is not revealing clearly yet is the number of crossover democrats who will vote Romney. I have seen recent projections of 90%+ republican affiliated who are a firm vote for Romney. I have seen the democrat affiliated lower, in the mid-80’s for Obama.

How many Reagan democrats will there be? I believe the debates will turn this to us. Romney has very wisely spent a lot of time preparing his message. My gut tells me the first debate will be hard facts and straight talk vs. unicorns, rainbows, blame and assorted nonsense. I believe we start to see the turn after Wednesday. With these polls so close in spite of the illogical partisan samples (all but Rasmussen), Romney doesn’t have to persuade that many democrats.

Is it conceivable that he can convince 1 out of every 20 or 40 democrats to change their vote? Is it conceivable that he will take at least 3 of every 5 undecided? Is it conceivable that Ryan is going to make Biden look like such a boob in their debate that it only adds more anxiety to the fringes of Obama’s support? I don’t think it’s only conceivable, I think it’s likely. This race is Romney / Ryan’s to lose and I don’t think they are going to lose.


48 posted on 09/29/2012 8:55:54 PM PDT by untwist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper

Thanks for posting the chart!

O 48% R 47% with leaners and a D+2-4.

Per Rasmussen “In the last three elections, he notes, the polls moved against the incumbent party in the final weeks of the race”.

It’s a virtual tie right now and Romney hasn’t even unloaded the massive ad buy or faced off in the debates.

Plus Obama is facing a load of heavy bad coming down on him in the coming days in terms of his failed economy and foreign policy blunders.


49 posted on 09/29/2012 8:58:11 PM PDT by smoothsailing
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: entropy12

What you say is true but:

1) historically the independents have broken for the challenger
2) across the swing states it looks like large numbers of these independents have actually changed their registration from Democrat to Independent since 2008 (and not from Republican to Independent). Kind of shows you about the way they lean politically.
3) poll after poll show Romney having a lead with independents


50 posted on 09/29/2012 8:58:40 PM PDT by plushaye (Election 2012 Prayer Force)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 44 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-100101-150151-159 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson