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Rasmussen: Yes, Dems likely have 2-4 point advantage in November
Washington Examiner ^ | 9-29-2012 | Byron York

Posted on 09/29/2012 8:21:34 PM PDT by smoothsailing

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To: smoothsailing

In 2004 the turnout was E with what Ras had as a D+1.5 party id.

How is it that Ras thinks it will be D+2-4 in 2012 - after what happened in 2010 and what his partisan split shows now (R+4)? Makes no sense unless he’s playing along with crowd to look fair and hedge his bets.

I have never seem the Rs with more amp and angst. They will walk barefoot through a snow storm. Much more excited than 2004. Just look at any poll thread here at FR. People are freaking out. That is a sign of enthusiasm. Look at the base and blogs, the polling samples have never been an issue like this year.


51 posted on 09/29/2012 8:59:54 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: Longbow1969
Folks on our side are now stuck disputing virtually ALL the polls.....yeah, were losing. We don't even have Rasmussen to hang our hat on now. This is worse than I even imagined.

That's just silly. Democrats have had an advantage in party ID for some time, as Rasmussen says in the article. That has nothing to do with enthusiasm or the rate at which voters head to the polls; it simply reflects self identification when pollsters ask.

52 posted on 09/29/2012 9:01:01 PM PDT by TonyInOhio (~ It-Is-Later-Than-You-Think ~)
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To: aruanan

Reagan had Reagan democrats. We were only 6 years removed from Nixon, and the democrats had a huge bulge in affiliation. There were many Kennedy democrats then. Today the demographic is different.

I think there are Reagan democrats out there who haven’t moved over yet. The debates will turn this in our favor.


53 posted on 09/29/2012 9:01:46 PM PDT by untwist
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To: Longbow1969

Republican victories have never been delivered without votes from democrats. It’s just that many of those democrats are now called Independents.

I thought Rasmussen was saying this will break for Romney, if history is any judge, by a few more points.

THAT is all we need.


54 posted on 09/29/2012 9:06:36 PM PDT by RitaOK ( VIVA CHRISTO REY)
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To: Jim from C-Town

This election will be decided in the first 15 minutes of the first debate.

Unfortunately, all the Media Stories about Obama brilliance, and overwhelming debate win have already been written, as they had to be submitted to Media Matters for approval by 6PM tonite.


55 posted on 09/29/2012 9:06:36 PM PDT by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: untwist

Check out post #7, it’s the most detail I’ve ever seen from a Rasmussen poll. It must be what you see if you’re a subscriber.


56 posted on 09/29/2012 9:06:53 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing

Remember gang polls are not prognostications they operate on current data manipulated by past realities. If the voter turnout is like that in 2008 Obama wins, if like 2010 (not a national election) then Romney has a very good shot. Right now 2008 turnout models are the norm, but this may change.


57 posted on 09/29/2012 9:06:59 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Take two Aspirin and call me in November - Obama for Hindmost.)
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To: smoothsailing

1. I say it’s BS
2. What fraction of Democrats are going to vote for Obama this time around?

So even if this is true, it’s great news for Romney.


58 posted on 09/29/2012 9:07:53 PM PDT by bigbob
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To: SoFloFreeper
Higher unemployment = More Welfare & Food Stamps = GOOD!

That's the black community's mindset and 0bama knows that. The bottom line here is that the PRESIDENT has no ethics, morals, scruples, and no shame. THAT is the problem. Our President is a foreigner with a foreign ideology and in direct conflict with American ideals.

59 posted on 09/29/2012 9:08:04 PM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: jimbobfoster

I agree. I think what Raz is doing is playing it safe and not upsetting the partisan left.

In 2004 the party id was D+1.5 and the turnout was Even with a far less enthusiasm gap than today.

Today the party id is R+4.5 and the turnout will be D+4 with a stronger enthusiasm gap? I don’t think so. Makes no sense.


60 posted on 09/29/2012 9:09:50 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; Red Steel

See Red Steel’s post #14. It helped me understand a little better what Ras is doing.


61 posted on 09/29/2012 9:10:36 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: nhwingut

Pollster seem not to be able to account or are poor at accounting for voter apathy or voter enthusiasm.


62 posted on 09/29/2012 9:11:30 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Longbow1969

Rant after Nov 6th.

I wear a kilt...not a skirt.


63 posted on 09/29/2012 9:11:46 PM PDT by Puckster
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To: Arthurio
Geez, I wonder if anyone here has read past the headline? What’s being reported here is good news. Everyone had been assuming that Rasmussen was weighting it plus 4 Republican. He has it weighted +3 Rat, and Bambi is still ahead by only 1 or 2 points.

Exactly! Sheesh, who needs the media to depress Republicans when we'll do it ourselves?

The reality is that turnout after 1980 has ALWAYS ranged from even to D+4, except for 2008. There is some evidence that this could be an usual outlier year where Rs outnumber Ds, but that WILL be an outlier.

We also know that the polls USUALLY shift towards the challenger down the final stretch. We also know that those who are say they are undecided down the final stretch USUALLY break 2:1 for the challenger. We know that Romney is adopting a late "daisy cutter" strategy designed to maximize those effects. With the Ras interview, we also now know that there is room for a more Republican electorate than Ras predicts RIGHT NOW without being unusual.

Long story short, Scott Rasmussen is a pollster, not a cheerleader. However, what he has to say is pretty good news for Romney. It makes no sense to pile on him because he doesn't draw a conclusion that MIGHT be true but for which there is no evidence to indicate WILL be true. Republican turnout has never exceeded Dem, so he can't say that any data he has indicate it will this time.

64 posted on 09/29/2012 9:12:13 PM PDT by lgwdnbdgr
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To: cherry

I have no doubts.


65 posted on 09/29/2012 9:12:34 PM PDT by Puckster
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To: smoothsailing

(”Then they rationalize it. You rationalize things to fit what you want the world to be.”)

Actually, that’s a pretty description of what the pollsters are doing, not Republican voters!


66 posted on 09/29/2012 9:15:10 PM PDT by winner3000
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To: Red Steel; Impy; fieldmarshaldj; Clintonfatigued; randita; BillyBoy; GOPsterinMA; unkus; LS; ...

Rasmussen kept using a D+2 assumption even after its August polls showed likely voters to be R+4, probably just to play it safe, since D+2 is closer to the historical norm (it was D+3 or so in 2000, even in 2004, and D+7 in 2008). It is possible that his September party-ID numbers (which he will release this coming week) will not be as Republican, since the RNC was in August and the DNC was in September. If the electorate on Election Day ends up being D+2 or less, Romney will probably win; if it’s D+3, it will be very close, à la 2000, and it could go either way; and if it’s D+4 or more, Obama will likely win.

What is clear is that the electorate will not be D+7 this year, much less the D+8 through D+12 that some ridiculous pollsters have been using.


67 posted on 09/29/2012 9:20:36 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: nhwingut

2008: D+7
2004: Even
2000: D+4

I’m hoping the final for 2012 is D+2 or less. That should be enough to win with a comfortable cushion and stave off challenges and dirty tricks.

I’m with you on the enthusiasm level, it’s seems huge for ABO. What I’m not sure of is the enthusiasm for Romney, I’m just hoping folks see him as the only choice.


68 posted on 09/29/2012 9:23:59 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing

There may be a 2-4% advantage for Dem voting in Nov. but 3% more Dems will vote for Romney than Republicans for Obama.


69 posted on 09/29/2012 9:24:19 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Take two Aspirin and call me in November - Obama for Hindmost.)
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To: Longbow1969

“So wait...Rasmussen, the most GOP friendly pollster out there, is also wrong?”

College football’s `Bowl Championship Series’ also has scientific credentials using research methodology recognized by political polling organizations.
Not surprisingly the Associated Pimps’ are also involved in both venues, providing their non-biased, impartial input. The BCS is a large pile of bovine excrement.

Saying, “They can’t all be wrong” begs the question. Assuming he isn’t found in bed with a live boy or dead girl, Romney wins hands down, tomorrow and in five weeks.
Don’t buy the BS. They’re all wrong.

When the dust settles we get to kiss fat sister Sue, rather than Aunt Doris with the running lip chancre. Yippee.


70 posted on 09/29/2012 9:27:02 PM PDT by tumblindice (America's founding fathers: all armed conservatives)
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To: plushaye

Did you read in my post that indies would break for Obama? NO! Actually I agree with your points in your post.


71 posted on 09/29/2012 9:27:20 PM PDT by entropy12
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To: smoothsailing

Yet, we get these stories only minutes before.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2938165/posts


72 posted on 09/29/2012 9:32:13 PM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: smoothsailing

Sounds like Scott is pulling a number out of his ear. Why is he sure that the Repubs won’t show up?

Pray for America


73 posted on 09/29/2012 9:34:11 PM PDT by bray (If you vote for a communist what does that make you?)
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To: nhwingut
Ras has been openly attacked and mocked by left winger Nate Silver ( former Daily KOZ nutter)and evil Axelrod . Silver and Axelrod are leftist who are working behind closed doors to enforce the Obama poll models that use 2008 or else your will get the Ras treatment .
Never has the left has such total control over the media and these push polling.
In some cases like CBS, David Kaplan ( former Head of CNN and was the reason it was the Clinton New Network) worked to cok these polls Natey and David A.
Ras been beaten down not and is given in to using + Dem model to appease these creeps.
Natey was the idiot who behind the scenes had told CNN and all the Obama media including the clown Allahpundit spouting off the Scott recall would be a too close to call and he won by 6 pts !
74 posted on 09/29/2012 9:34:54 PM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
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To: Mike Darancette
There may be a 2-4% advantage for Dem voting in Nov. but 3% more Dems will vote for Romney than Republicans for Obama.

I'd put it higher than 3%, maybe 5-6%. Check out the chart in post #7, 15% of white male Dems for Romney!

75 posted on 09/29/2012 9:34:54 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing

Very impressive details. Looking inside at the Extended data, this is 88% solid or lean Romney for GOP voters vs. 85% solid or lean Obama for Democrats.

Romney is on more solid ground right now by far. The world is falling apart around Obama, whether the media reports it or not. I don’t see an upside for him. The race is Romney’s to win or lose.


76 posted on 09/29/2012 9:37:14 PM PDT by untwist
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To: smoothsailing

It will be the independents who break for Romney, who will decide the election.


77 posted on 09/29/2012 9:37:58 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: smoothsailing
Republicans may very well be more motivated this year, but in the end, those who want to keep their “freebies” will rush to the polls for Obama.

Romney simply cannot generate the necessary level of enthusiasm to win.

I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't believe that Romney has it in him to unseat the incumbent.

78 posted on 09/29/2012 9:38:53 PM PDT by Pox (Good Night. I expect more respect tomorrow.)
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To: Longbow1969
“For the last 20 years, between 37 and 39 percent of voters on Election Day have been Democrats,” says the pollster. “Republicans have ranged from 32 to 37 percent. Right now, our sample looks like 36 percent Republican versus 39 percent Democrat.”

How did we win any election in the last 20 years if the Democrats were always outvoting us?

79 posted on 09/29/2012 9:40:56 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: SoFloFreeper

Something wrong with the Gender numbers. He is showing Romney down to Obama among men and up over Obama among women... He either made a mistake in the posting of the data i.e. reversed the results or the men who answered the poll were much less Whites than their actual numbers in the population...


80 posted on 09/29/2012 9:42:14 PM PDT by Conservative12345
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To: SoFloFreeper
OK, in order to get Obama 47%, Romney 45%, and based on the % of votes for each one among democrats, Republicans, and Independents my calculations show that in this poll there is 39% democrats, 32% Republicans, and 29% Independents... That is a D+7...

Calculations details based on the Rasmussen internals that you posted:

% Obama = (84*39 + 9*32 + 29*38)/100 = 46.66 %, round it to 47 %.

% Romney = (12*39 + 87*32 +29*45)/100 = 44.99 %, round it to 45%.

81 posted on 09/29/2012 9:42:43 PM PDT by Conservative12345
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To: Longbow1969

Look at post # 7 with the detailed Rasmussen internals... Romney is winning independents by 5 points (43% Romney, 38% Obama)... Anyone who wins the independents by this margin on elections day is going to win the elections...


82 posted on 09/29/2012 9:42:50 PM PDT by Conservative12345
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To: untwist; aruanan
Reagan had Reagan democrats. We were only 6 years removed from Nixon, and the democrats had a huge bulge in affiliation. There were many Kennedy democrats then. Today the demographic is different.

I think there are Reagan democrats out there who haven’t moved over yet. The debates will turn this in our favor.

The MSM is anticipating this argument. Seen the cover of Newsweek lately? BO as "The Democrats' Reagan"?

http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek.html

83 posted on 09/29/2012 9:43:19 PM PDT by thecodont
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To: Longbow1969
There is no evidence in history that people somehow can be counted on to do the right thing

The fact that is the US proves you wrong.

84 posted on 09/29/2012 9:43:42 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Longbow1969
There is no evidence in history that people somehow can be counted on to do the right thing

The fact that there is the US proves you wrong.

85 posted on 09/29/2012 9:43:52 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Mike Darancette

Correction:

I said 15% of white male Dems for Romney, I meant 15% of all white Dems.


86 posted on 09/29/2012 9:44:00 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: chessplayer

We’re see in Nov. How did those polls do in the WI recall race?


87 posted on 09/29/2012 9:45:06 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: SoFloFreeper
40% of the African American population has an IQ below 80.

This is just a fact. You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but it is easier to fool a group of people that have an average IQ of 85. That is around 18 PTS below the IQ on an average European American.

Could this be part of the cause for the stunning poll number? After all O’Bumbler is only half Black. The part that abandoned him as a child.

88 posted on 09/29/2012 9:45:44 PM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: smoothsailing
The last real poll that counted was the Nov, 2010 election. If anything, the people that voted then are more fired up now than ever. They're quieter about it, but you can damn well betcha' they're going to show up on November 6th!

Tea Party Sept 12, 2010, Washington DC


89 posted on 09/29/2012 9:48:47 PM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: aruanan

Big problem with your logic. Obama is the black Muslim Carter, but Romney is the white Mormon Carter. There’s no Reagan running, so the rules are going to be different. There is just too little difference between the two candidates to excite anybody, and the only thing animating the Republicans is opposition towards Obama. Only the MittBots think Romney is something that he isn’t.

This is a weak foundation from which to launch a Presidential missile. That is why the missile is not flying high enough or fast enough when Obama has been so utterly incompetent and corrupt. Look at the ads Mittens has been pushing. I’m compassionate and so is Obama, but, umm, I can manage government better. Ryan: Gays are in the military and there’s nothing we can do about it now. Time to move on. Romney: Abortion is legal for the health and life of the mother and for rape and incest, it is settled law. RomneyCare was a great success in my state, but I never said it would work as a national model even though I did. You have to read the nuance in my lying words. Oh, and RomneyCare is proof that I am compassionate because I got everyone insured. But but but, I didn’t defund Medicare to do it.

And so it goes...


90 posted on 09/29/2012 9:52:19 PM PDT by RaisingCain
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To: Art in Idaho

Absolutely Awesome! Thanks for posting the pic!


91 posted on 09/29/2012 9:53:04 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: SoFloFreeper

Ping


92 posted on 09/29/2012 9:55:51 PM PDT by profit_guy
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To: Art in Idaho

It would be interesting to compare how party turnout changed from 2006 to 2010.

Then whatever difference occurred there, apply it to 2008 to predict a 2012 number.


93 posted on 09/29/2012 9:56:48 PM PDT by JediJones (KARL ROVE: "And remember, this year, no one is seriously talking about ending abortion.")
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To: smoothsailing

There is another component in this year’s election that was not in effect during any previous election cycle before: we’re living now in a post-Citizen’s United world. The money that a lot of the Super PAC’s are sitting on is breathtaking - and they also have not yet unleashed their fury. Most of the private Super PAC’s are for the Right, not the Left. So in addition to the Romney Gun$, Obama (and in turn, EVERY Democrat) will have to contend with the groups like American Crossroads and many others just like them. It’s likely to be a barrage that they cannot withstand too successfully.

There’s another consideration too. In many of the polls so far that have vastly oversampled Democrats, Obama loses a fair number of them - which has to be bad for him. A lot of Republicans in 2008 stayed away from the POTUS section of the ballot because of McCain. I think that number was significant. A lot of other Republicans probably voted for Obama because he was black. None of that will matter now. Obama is not the unknown commodity he was prior to 2008. He’s known now. And there is a large number of TEA Party voters who know that while Romney isn’t their first choice, that doesn’t matter this time. The TEA Party voters know all too well what’s at stake. The TEA Party destroyed the Democrats in 2010. And I doubt they will be swinging to Obama anytime soon for any reason. We have to trust there are some things polling doesn’t measure successfully. If Obama himself had been on the ballot in November 2010, is it Rasmussen’s contention that HE would have stopped the slaughter of the Democrats that night? The 2010 mid-terms showed a Repulican advantage in voter registration of just over 1% according to Rasmussen then, and the Democrats were destroyed wholesale at just about every level. Rasmussen says his research shows that same figure to be at 4% in favor of Republicans at his last report in in August 2012- so four times the size of the 2010 number. So I guess if that holds, we’re gonna see how his Democrats +2-4 points into November 2012 will hold up.


94 posted on 09/29/2012 9:56:54 PM PDT by antonico
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To: smoothsailing

There is another component in this year’s election that was not in effect during any previous election cycle before: we’re living now in a post-Citizen’s United world. The money that a lot of the Super PAC’s are sitting on is breathtaking - and they also have not yet unleashed their fury. Most of the private Super PAC’s are for the Right, not the Left. So in addition to the Romney Gun$, Obama (and in turn, EVERY Democrat) will have to contend with the groups like American Crossroads and many others just like them. It’s likely to be a barrage that they cannot withstand too successfully.

There’s another consideration too. In many of the polls so far that have vastly oversampled Democrats, Obama loses a fair number of them - which has to be bad for him. A lot of Republicans in 2008 stayed away from the POTUS section of the ballot because of McCain. I think that number was significant. A lot of other Republicans probably voted for Obama because he was black. None of that will matter now. Obama is not the unknown commodity he was prior to 2008. He’s known now. And there is a large number of TEA Party voters who know that while Romney isn’t their first choice, that doesn’t matter this time. The TEA Party voters know all too well what’s at stake. The TEA Party destroyed the Democrats in 2010. And I doubt they will be swinging to Obama anytime soon for any reason. We have to trust there are some things polling doesn’t measure successfully. If Obama himself had been on the ballot in November 2010, is it Rasmussen’s contention that HE would have stopped the slaughter of the Democrats that night? The 2010 mid-terms showed a Repulican advantage in voter registration of just over 1% according to Rasmussen then, and the Democrats were destroyed wholesale at just about every level. Rasmussen says his research shows that same figure to be at 4% in favor of Republicans at his last report in in August 2012- so four times the size of the 2010 number. So I guess if that holds, we’re gonna see how his Democrats +2-4 points into November 2012 will hold up.


95 posted on 09/29/2012 9:57:06 PM PDT by antonico
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To: Conservative12345

Sorry I made a typo, 43% of independents voting for Romney according to your chart but not 45% but the calculations are not effected...


96 posted on 09/29/2012 9:57:13 PM PDT by Conservative12345
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To: smoothsailing

There is another component in this year’s election that was not in effect during any previous election cycle before: we’re living now in a post-Citizen’s United world. The money that a lot of the Super PAC’s are sitting on is breathtaking - and they also have not yet unleashed their fury. Most of the private Super PAC’s are for the Right, not the Left. So in addition to the Romney Gun$, Obama (and in turn, EVERY Democrat) will have to contend with the groups like American Crossroads and many others just like them. It’s likely to be a barrage that they cannot withstand too successfully.

There’s another consideration too. In many of the polls so far that have vastly oversampled Democrats, Obama loses a fair number of them - which has to be bad for him. A lot of Republicans in 2008 stayed away from the POTUS section of the ballot because of McCain. I think that number was significant. A lot of other Republicans probably voted for Obama because he was black. None of that will matter now. Obama is not the unknown commodity he was prior to 2008. He’s known now. And there is a large number of TEA Party voters who know that while Romney isn’t their first choice, that doesn’t matter this time. The TEA Party voters know all too well what’s at stake. The TEA Party destroyed the Democrats in 2010. And I doubt they will be swinging to Obama anytime soon for any reason. We have to trust there are some things polling doesn’t measure successfully. If Obama himself had been on the ballot in November 2010, is it Rasmussen’s contention that HE would have stopped the slaughter of the Democrats that night? The 2010 mid-terms showed a Repulican advantage in voter registration of just over 1% according to Rasmussen then, and the Democrats were destroyed wholesale at just about every level. Rasmussen says his research shows that same figure to be at 4% in favor of Republicans at his last report in in August 2012- so four times the size of the 2010 number. So I guess if that holds, we’re gonna see how his Democrats +2-4 points into November 2012 will hold up.


97 posted on 09/29/2012 9:57:30 PM PDT by antonico
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To: Longbow1969

Well Rasmussen’s own Party Affiliation survey for August showed a +4.3% R gap, he never used his own data in his own normalization of the numbers.

In 2006 the dems had a big edge in party affiliation they expanded that gap by ~1.5% in the subsequent election.

In the 2010 midterm the gap in party affiliation was 1.3% R, what has happened to move the needle to the dems by 4%+ ?

Of course he has been getting hammered by Axelrod.

Interesting.


98 posted on 09/29/2012 9:58:12 PM PDT by Leto
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To: thecodont

I don’t waste time with Newsweek. Incumbency is both an advantage and a burden. In Obama’s case it’s a catastrophe.


99 posted on 09/29/2012 9:58:46 PM PDT by untwist
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To: antonico

You can say that again!


100 posted on 09/29/2012 9:59:17 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong!)
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