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1 posted on 09/29/2012 8:21:38 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing

I think that Scott Rasmussen is correct in his projection of voting by ‘party affiliation’. He hedges down as low as +2 democrat advantage. What the polling is not revealing clearly yet is the number of crossover democrats who will vote Romney. I have seen recent projections of 90%+ republican affiliated who are a firm vote for Romney. I have seen the democrat affiliated lower, in the mid-80’s for Obama.

How many Reagan democrats will there be? I believe the debates will turn this to us. Romney has very wisely spent a lot of time preparing his message. My gut tells me the first debate will be hard facts and straight talk vs. unicorns, rainbows, blame and assorted nonsense. I believe we start to see the turn after Wednesday. With these polls so close in spite of the illogical partisan samples (all but Rasmussen), Romney doesn’t have to persuade that many democrats.

Is it conceivable that he can convince 1 out of every 20 or 40 democrats to change their vote? Is it conceivable that he will take at least 3 of every 5 undecided? Is it conceivable that Ryan is going to make Biden look like such a boob in their debate that it only adds more anxiety to the fringes of Obama’s support? I don’t think it’s only conceivable, I think it’s likely. This race is Romney / Ryan’s to lose and I don’t think they are going to lose.


48 posted on 09/29/2012 8:55:54 PM PDT by untwist
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To: smoothsailing

In 2004 the turnout was E with what Ras had as a D+1.5 party id.

How is it that Ras thinks it will be D+2-4 in 2012 - after what happened in 2010 and what his partisan split shows now (R+4)? Makes no sense unless he’s playing along with crowd to look fair and hedge his bets.

I have never seem the Rs with more amp and angst. They will walk barefoot through a snow storm. Much more excited than 2004. Just look at any poll thread here at FR. People are freaking out. That is a sign of enthusiasm. Look at the base and blogs, the polling samples have never been an issue like this year.


51 posted on 09/29/2012 8:59:54 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: smoothsailing

Remember gang polls are not prognostications they operate on current data manipulated by past realities. If the voter turnout is like that in 2008 Obama wins, if like 2010 (not a national election) then Romney has a very good shot. Right now 2008 turnout models are the norm, but this may change.


57 posted on 09/29/2012 9:06:59 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Take two Aspirin and call me in November - Obama for Hindmost.)
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To: smoothsailing

1. I say it’s BS
2. What fraction of Democrats are going to vote for Obama this time around?

So even if this is true, it’s great news for Romney.


58 posted on 09/29/2012 9:07:53 PM PDT by bigbob
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To: smoothsailing

(”Then they rationalize it. You rationalize things to fit what you want the world to be.”)

Actually, that’s a pretty description of what the pollsters are doing, not Republican voters!


66 posted on 09/29/2012 9:15:10 PM PDT by winner3000
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To: smoothsailing

There may be a 2-4% advantage for Dem voting in Nov. but 3% more Dems will vote for Romney than Republicans for Obama.


69 posted on 09/29/2012 9:24:19 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Take two Aspirin and call me in November - Obama for Hindmost.)
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To: smoothsailing

Yet, we get these stories only minutes before.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2938165/posts


72 posted on 09/29/2012 9:32:13 PM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: smoothsailing

Sounds like Scott is pulling a number out of his ear. Why is he sure that the Repubs won’t show up?

Pray for America


73 posted on 09/29/2012 9:34:11 PM PDT by bray (If you vote for a communist what does that make you?)
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To: smoothsailing

It will be the independents who break for Romney, who will decide the election.


77 posted on 09/29/2012 9:37:58 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: smoothsailing
Republicans may very well be more motivated this year, but in the end, those who want to keep their “freebies” will rush to the polls for Obama.

Romney simply cannot generate the necessary level of enthusiasm to win.

I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't believe that Romney has it in him to unseat the incumbent.

78 posted on 09/29/2012 9:38:53 PM PDT by Pox (Good Night. I expect more respect tomorrow.)
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To: smoothsailing
The last real poll that counted was the Nov, 2010 election. If anything, the people that voted then are more fired up now than ever. They're quieter about it, but you can damn well betcha' they're going to show up on November 6th!

Tea Party Sept 12, 2010, Washington DC


89 posted on 09/29/2012 9:48:47 PM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: smoothsailing

There is another component in this year’s election that was not in effect during any previous election cycle before: we’re living now in a post-Citizen’s United world. The money that a lot of the Super PAC’s are sitting on is breathtaking - and they also have not yet unleashed their fury. Most of the private Super PAC’s are for the Right, not the Left. So in addition to the Romney Gun$, Obama (and in turn, EVERY Democrat) will have to contend with the groups like American Crossroads and many others just like them. It’s likely to be a barrage that they cannot withstand too successfully.

There’s another consideration too. In many of the polls so far that have vastly oversampled Democrats, Obama loses a fair number of them - which has to be bad for him. A lot of Republicans in 2008 stayed away from the POTUS section of the ballot because of McCain. I think that number was significant. A lot of other Republicans probably voted for Obama because he was black. None of that will matter now. Obama is not the unknown commodity he was prior to 2008. He’s known now. And there is a large number of TEA Party voters who know that while Romney isn’t their first choice, that doesn’t matter this time. The TEA Party voters know all too well what’s at stake. The TEA Party destroyed the Democrats in 2010. And I doubt they will be swinging to Obama anytime soon for any reason. We have to trust there are some things polling doesn’t measure successfully. If Obama himself had been on the ballot in November 2010, is it Rasmussen’s contention that HE would have stopped the slaughter of the Democrats that night? The 2010 mid-terms showed a Repulican advantage in voter registration of just over 1% according to Rasmussen then, and the Democrats were destroyed wholesale at just about every level. Rasmussen says his research shows that same figure to be at 4% in favor of Republicans at his last report in in August 2012- so four times the size of the 2010 number. So I guess if that holds, we’re gonna see how his Democrats +2-4 points into November 2012 will hold up.


94 posted on 09/29/2012 9:56:54 PM PDT by antonico
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To: smoothsailing

There is another component in this year’s election that was not in effect during any previous election cycle before: we’re living now in a post-Citizen’s United world. The money that a lot of the Super PAC’s are sitting on is breathtaking - and they also have not yet unleashed their fury. Most of the private Super PAC’s are for the Right, not the Left. So in addition to the Romney Gun$, Obama (and in turn, EVERY Democrat) will have to contend with the groups like American Crossroads and many others just like them. It’s likely to be a barrage that they cannot withstand too successfully.

There’s another consideration too. In many of the polls so far that have vastly oversampled Democrats, Obama loses a fair number of them - which has to be bad for him. A lot of Republicans in 2008 stayed away from the POTUS section of the ballot because of McCain. I think that number was significant. A lot of other Republicans probably voted for Obama because he was black. None of that will matter now. Obama is not the unknown commodity he was prior to 2008. He’s known now. And there is a large number of TEA Party voters who know that while Romney isn’t their first choice, that doesn’t matter this time. The TEA Party voters know all too well what’s at stake. The TEA Party destroyed the Democrats in 2010. And I doubt they will be swinging to Obama anytime soon for any reason. We have to trust there are some things polling doesn’t measure successfully. If Obama himself had been on the ballot in November 2010, is it Rasmussen’s contention that HE would have stopped the slaughter of the Democrats that night? The 2010 mid-terms showed a Repulican advantage in voter registration of just over 1% according to Rasmussen then, and the Democrats were destroyed wholesale at just about every level. Rasmussen says his research shows that same figure to be at 4% in favor of Republicans at his last report in in August 2012- so four times the size of the 2010 number. So I guess if that holds, we’re gonna see how his Democrats +2-4 points into November 2012 will hold up.


95 posted on 09/29/2012 9:57:06 PM PDT by antonico
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To: smoothsailing

There is another component in this year’s election that was not in effect during any previous election cycle before: we’re living now in a post-Citizen’s United world. The money that a lot of the Super PAC’s are sitting on is breathtaking - and they also have not yet unleashed their fury. Most of the private Super PAC’s are for the Right, not the Left. So in addition to the Romney Gun$, Obama (and in turn, EVERY Democrat) will have to contend with the groups like American Crossroads and many others just like them. It’s likely to be a barrage that they cannot withstand too successfully.

There’s another consideration too. In many of the polls so far that have vastly oversampled Democrats, Obama loses a fair number of them - which has to be bad for him. A lot of Republicans in 2008 stayed away from the POTUS section of the ballot because of McCain. I think that number was significant. A lot of other Republicans probably voted for Obama because he was black. None of that will matter now. Obama is not the unknown commodity he was prior to 2008. He’s known now. And there is a large number of TEA Party voters who know that while Romney isn’t their first choice, that doesn’t matter this time. The TEA Party voters know all too well what’s at stake. The TEA Party destroyed the Democrats in 2010. And I doubt they will be swinging to Obama anytime soon for any reason. We have to trust there are some things polling doesn’t measure successfully. If Obama himself had been on the ballot in November 2010, is it Rasmussen’s contention that HE would have stopped the slaughter of the Democrats that night? The 2010 mid-terms showed a Repulican advantage in voter registration of just over 1% according to Rasmussen then, and the Democrats were destroyed wholesale at just about every level. Rasmussen says his research shows that same figure to be at 4% in favor of Republicans at his last report in in August 2012- so four times the size of the 2010 number. So I guess if that holds, we’re gonna see how his Democrats +2-4 points into November 2012 will hold up.


97 posted on 09/29/2012 9:57:30 PM PDT by antonico
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To: smoothsailing

This doesn’t sound like bad news to me. Gotta read the entire article to understand the meaning.


108 posted on 09/29/2012 10:20:36 PM PDT by EnquiringMind
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To: smoothsailing
That the worst POTUS ever even has a chance says more about our sicko society than I wanted to know.

If it's close, we're done!

110 posted on 09/29/2012 10:24:58 PM PDT by lonestar (It takes a village of idiots to elect a village idiot.)
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To: smoothsailing
"Rasmussen: Yes, Dems likely have 2-4 point advantage in November"

Far enough. How many of that "2-4" points are voting for hussein again?

123 posted on 09/29/2012 10:55:09 PM PDT by moehoward
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To: smoothsailing

He is hedging. Basically he’s saying, based on the historical party identification and turn out, Democrats have 2-4% advantage, so Obama might win. However, we have many people who are on the fence. Historically,they break for the non-incumbent, so Romney might win. Either way, he’ll keep the status of most accurate pollster.


124 posted on 09/30/2012 12:11:17 AM PDT by paudio (Post-racial society: When we can legitimately hire and fire a Black man without feeling guilty.)
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To: smoothsailing

+15% of white democrats for Romney
+15% of middle class families for Romney
+15% of independents for Romney

That’s huge and Romney IS NOT GOING TO LOSE with those numbers.


125 posted on 09/30/2012 1:13:02 AM PDT by MrDem (Founder: Democrats for Cheney/Palin 2012)
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To: smoothsailing

Our 16% edge in enthusiasm plus Catholic vote and Obama’s done for.


130 posted on 09/30/2012 2:54:00 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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