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To: Lysandru
Don't Rasumssen's own polls show that the idenfification edge is now with Republicans?

Yes, his August party affiliation polls showed the Republicans with a couple point lead, with a big upswing. I have not seen the September numbers, which I suspect are not out, and I am not sure how he came up with the party affiliation numbers anyway. I suppose it is possible he does not just use his affiliation numbers directly in his party affiliation models for some reason or another that I suppose only he could explain.

13 posted on 09/29/2012 8:36:20 PM PDT by AndyTheBear
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To: AndyTheBear

I suppose it is possible he does not just use his affiliation numbers directly in his party affiliation models for some reason or another that I suppose only he could explain.
+++++++++++++++
Raz does not use his party affiliation results in his Turnout Model. He collects that data and may use it to fudge his D+2 to D+4 model one way or another but, based on the article, he thinks the historical voting patterns are the more important element.

Note that Unskewedpolls.com does use the Rasmussen party affiliation figure as the likely Turnout Model. Right now that number is, IIRC, R+4. Compare that to Rasmussen’s presumed D+3 and you have a 7 point differential.

Not good.

OTOH, we should win if it’s D+2, we normally do. This race is still winnable. We did it in 2010 and we will do it in 2012.


139 posted on 09/30/2012 4:57:47 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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