This is all mind numbing. I don’t think I’m stupid, but I don’t understand this at all.
It appears to me that Rasmussen contradicts its on information. See: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation
Thanks for the link! I was looking for that chart.
Ras should be using R+4 but he must think that’s an outlier, so he’s using D+3 for his election assumptions.
The MSM is pounding Ras for using D+3 because they think the turnout will be greater for the Dems than 2008 i.e D+7, which is fantasy. There are NO signs on this happening.
So D+3 is the Ras baseline, based on his assumptions. I think he will be wrong, but he’ll probably be less wrong than all the other pollsters combined.
I agree. I think what Raz is doing is playing it safe and not upsetting the partisan left.
In 2004 the party id was D+1.5 and the turnout was Even with a far less enthusiasm gap than today.
Today the party id is R+4.5 and the turnout will be D+4 with a stronger enthusiasm gap? I don’t think so. Makes no sense.