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To: Arthurio
Geez, I wonder if anyone here has read past the headline? What’s being reported here is good news. Everyone had been assuming that Rasmussen was weighting it plus 4 Republican. He has it weighted +3 Rat, and Bambi is still ahead by only 1 or 2 points.

Exactly! Sheesh, who needs the media to depress Republicans when we'll do it ourselves?

The reality is that turnout after 1980 has ALWAYS ranged from even to D+4, except for 2008. There is some evidence that this could be an usual outlier year where Rs outnumber Ds, but that WILL be an outlier.

We also know that the polls USUALLY shift towards the challenger down the final stretch. We also know that those who are say they are undecided down the final stretch USUALLY break 2:1 for the challenger. We know that Romney is adopting a late "daisy cutter" strategy designed to maximize those effects. With the Ras interview, we also now know that there is room for a more Republican electorate than Ras predicts RIGHT NOW without being unusual.

Long story short, Scott Rasmussen is a pollster, not a cheerleader. However, what he has to say is pretty good news for Romney. It makes no sense to pile on him because he doesn't draw a conclusion that MIGHT be true but for which there is no evidence to indicate WILL be true. Republican turnout has never exceeded Dem, so he can't say that any data he has indicate it will this time.

64 posted on 09/29/2012 9:12:13 PM PDT by lgwdnbdgr
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To: lgwdnbdgr

“a conclusion that MIGHT be true but fir which there is no evidence to indicate WILL be true”

Okay, but why does erring in the side of caution always mean erring on the side of Democrats? Because of party affiliation? But they can’t judge when voters will jump parties, nor when turnout will be depressed, nor how indies will go. So they call it the best way they can, given their limitations. Sometimes they’re right, as when it’s painfully obvious in 08. And sometimes they miss it, as in 04, 10, or the Wisconsin recall.

My thinking is they don’t really try to predict the outcome, just be able to say they took all the precautions and followed the industry standards. So that we get this fantasy world of polls alongside the real world. And no one will care, because producing them and reporting them are done for their own sake, rather than for telling the future. So long as they’re not so far off should people remember they don’t have an excuse.


141 posted on 09/30/2012 5:09:07 AM PDT by Tublecane
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