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Dispatch Poll: Obama widens lead (in Democrat skewed poll) as balloting starts
http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/09/30/1-dispatch-poll-shows-obama-in-lead.html ^

Posted on 09/30/2012 4:18:54 AM PDT by timlot

"A new Dispatch Poll shows him trailing President Barack Obama in bellwether Ohio by 9 points, 51 percent to 42 percent.

A surge of Democratic support for Obama has transformed the race since the first Dispatch Poll had the two dead-even at 45 percent just before the Republican National Convention in late August".

(Excerpt) Read more at dispatch.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012poll; 2012polls; alteredtitle; poll; poll2012; sourcetitlenoturl
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1 posted on 09/30/2012 4:19:01 AM PDT by timlot
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To: timlot

2 posted on 09/30/2012 4:22:29 AM PDT by Red Steel
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To: timlot

There’s only two ways Obama takes a lead...more Dem voters or he is winning over independents. Two different issues going forward.


3 posted on 09/30/2012 4:23:29 AM PDT by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.)
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To: timlot
The "mail poll" is the last line of the article.

Who participates in a mail in poll? Why?

4 posted on 09/30/2012 4:24:05 AM PDT by USS Alaska (Nuke the terrorist savages, start today.)
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To: timlot

Check www.unskewedpolls.com for a supposedly non partisan view.


5 posted on 09/30/2012 4:24:58 AM PDT by duckman (I'm part of the group pulling the wagon!)
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To: Red Steel

Yeah, with this sample, Strickland would be Governor.


6 posted on 09/30/2012 4:25:21 AM PDT by ez (When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail.)
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To: timlot

Sample is Dem 43%, GOP 34%, Ind 19%....

Garbage poll, so a +9 dem bias produces a +9 lead, who’d have thunk.


7 posted on 09/30/2012 4:28:18 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: Red Steel
Using the numbers in the party identification section of the poll, the total respondents were 1630. 43% identified themselves as Democrats, 34% as Republicans, and 19% as having no party identification. With those numbers, it's not difficult to see how they managed to manufacture a 9% lead for Obama!
8 posted on 09/30/2012 4:29:06 AM PDT by srmorton (Deut. 30 19: "..I have set before you life and death,....therefore, choose life..")
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To: Red Steel

Black 97 % for Obama ...And whites are the racists , right ?


9 posted on 09/30/2012 4:29:37 AM PDT by sushiman
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To: timlot

I guess they all got their free phones.


10 posted on 09/30/2012 4:29:37 AM PDT by FES0844
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To: timlot

Maybe they’re counting conservatives as 3/5ths of a vote.


11 posted on 09/30/2012 4:29:41 AM PDT by clearcarbon
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To: clearcarbon

considering Ohio only went for Obama in 2008 by 4.4%, this poll is total and utter garbage. They expecting it to be +9 in 2012, hilarious.


12 posted on 09/30/2012 4:31:49 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: Red Steel

Party breakdown:

Dem 43.25%

Rep 34.53%

Ind 19.57%

Other 2.76%

Another nonsense poll.


13 posted on 09/30/2012 4:31:55 AM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Red Steel

considering Ohio in 2010 went 38% Dem, 39% GOP, this is a laugh.


14 posted on 09/30/2012 4:34:26 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: timlot

how many Obama phones are there in polling area??

reports are that everyone who has one, has more than one.


15 posted on 09/30/2012 4:38:19 AM PDT by elpadre (AfganistaMr Obama said the goal was to "disrupt, dismantle and defeat al-hereQaeda" and its allies.)
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To: timlot

how many Obama phones are there in polling area??

reports are that everyone who has one, has more than one.


16 posted on 09/30/2012 4:38:56 AM PDT by elpadre (AfganistaMr Obama said the goal was to "disrupt, dismantle and defeat al-hereQaeda" and its allies.)
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To: Red Steel

Not just that, the county which is “northeast’ (where most of the voters were polled) includes heavily democratic and considerably more dependant Cleveland. Columbus is in the middle of the state. Why do you suppose a central Ohio newspaper would poll northeast Ohio and not Columbus??? (sarc)


17 posted on 09/30/2012 4:39:50 AM PDT by marstegreg
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To: marstegreg

and the caveat that Ohio has lost over 400,000 dems in the last 4 years seems to be lost on these pollsters and independents in Ohio up by 500,000 but they are still sticking to the 2008 models.


18 posted on 09/30/2012 4:43:22 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: Red Steel
"The mail poll of 1,662 randomly selected likely Ohio voters Sept. 19 through yesterday has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points."

It says "1662 registered voters" at the bottom of the graphic. Do they even know what they polled? By mail?

19 posted on 09/30/2012 4:44:00 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: sushiman

Probably not 97 percent; more like 99.6 percent or so.


20 posted on 09/30/2012 4:44:31 AM PDT by Theodore R. ( Who among us has not erred? Akin's the One!)
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To: sunmars

Yep, Ohio in 2008 (the Highwater mark) was 39 D 32 R and 29 i or other, Look at the good work of Freeper LS and you will quickly determine that this ain’t 2008.


21 posted on 09/30/2012 4:45:36 AM PDT by CPT Clay (Follow me on Twitter @Clay N TX)
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To: Red Steel

Less than 1% Hispanic?


22 posted on 09/30/2012 4:45:47 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: Red Steel

So 5% of the voters who voted for McCain in 2008 are now voting for Obama, and only 6% who voted for Obama are now voting for Romney. Sorry, that simply does not pass the smell test.


23 posted on 09/30/2012 4:49:14 AM PDT by MrDem (Founder: Democrats for Cheney/Palin 2012)
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To: sunmars

I also question the no party affiliation going 45-42 for Zero,


24 posted on 09/30/2012 4:49:35 AM PDT by CPT Clay (Follow me on Twitter @Clay N TX)
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To: CPT Clay; LS

LS has personally called hundreds of these unaffiliated voters, has not found many supporting Obama. What is the split 70-30 or 58-42?


25 posted on 09/30/2012 4:54:12 AM PDT by CPT Clay (Follow me on Twitter @Clay N TX)
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To: CPT Clay

its a big old push poll designed to inflate Dem numbers and discourage GOP turnout and morale.


26 posted on 09/30/2012 4:54:32 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: sunmars

I’m thinking lazy pollster is in the mix as well.


27 posted on 09/30/2012 4:59:21 AM PDT by CPT Clay (Follow me on Twitter @Clay N TX)
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To: CPT Clay

Correction, I did not personally call-—the Romney county campaign chairman called them beginning in May and found almost no support for Zero.


28 posted on 09/30/2012 5:02:15 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: timlot

The morning laughs continue


29 posted on 09/30/2012 5:07:18 AM PDT by italianquaker (The 47 pct need to pay their fair share)
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To: LS

What do you make of this one LS?


30 posted on 09/30/2012 5:13:56 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: USS Alaska

The Dispatch Ohio poll has always been VERY accurate AND the paper is not a fan of Obama.

This means much more work must happen. AND Mitt has to get fired up like he was in primaries. There is no reason for him to lose Ohio except for lack of effort (and using the right themes).

Both Obamas and Biden are practically living in Ohio


31 posted on 09/30/2012 5:25:27 AM PDT by shalom aleichem
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To: LS

Personally, what I find amusing is that this poll claims Zero & Willard each split the White vote 46%. That doesn’t pass the smell test.


32 posted on 09/30/2012 5:30:38 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (If you like lying Socialist dirtbags, you'll love Slick Willard)
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To: sunmars

I live in Ohio and the few people I knew who were sucked-in by Obamamania in 2008 have woken up. No way he’s taking Ohio and judging by how many times he campaigned here (so far), he thinks so too.


33 posted on 09/30/2012 5:36:32 AM PDT by marstegreg
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To: Red Steel

That is a dem +8.5% sample. Oh B.S.


34 posted on 09/30/2012 5:42:46 AM PDT by AndyTheBear
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To: fieldmarshaldj; LS

Another problem, check out the gender differences. The 54%-37% Obama advantage with women is slightly larger than nationally, but the 48%-46% Obama advantage among men is ridiculous.


35 posted on 09/30/2012 5:44:55 AM PDT by Gothmog (I fight for Xev)
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To: marstegreg
I live in Ohio and the few people I knew who were sucked-in by Obamamania in 2008 have woken up.

And yet this poll says 5% of McCain voters are now voting for Obama and only 6% of those Obamamania voters woke up and are now voting for Romney. Just not believable.

36 posted on 09/30/2012 5:48:45 AM PDT by MrDem (Founder: Democrats for Cheney/Palin 2012)
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To: Red Steel

Regardless of the skew to the democrats, Romney is not well liked else he would be leading every poll by a few to near double digits. This is evidenced in the important non-affiliated category of voters.

In this poll, if Romney were able to capture 2/3s of the unaffiliateds and peel off 5% more of ‘Other’, the poll would be tied 48 - 48.

Romney is destined to lose due to the independent vote because they are just not that into him; he’s phoney.

The thing to do is to put the energy and $$$ to capture the Senate. This will impede Obama significantly and set the stage for a conservative candidate in 2016. It will also provide an opportunity to extinguish the GOP-e which must be done without fail in order to have a party that conservatives can express themselves through.


37 posted on 09/30/2012 5:50:19 AM PDT by Hostage (Be Breitbart!)
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To: Red Steel
The numbers for Question 3 tell the story. In the actual race, Kasich beat Strickland 52.9% to 45.1%. Yet with the respondents in this poll favored Strickland over Kasich by 50% to 47%. This right here shows that the poll is invalid and is skewed towards Democrat candidates regardless of self-identified party affiliation.

In order to adjust the numbers so that the ratio of Kasich voters to Strickland voters is 1.174, you must increase the number of Republican voters by 23%. This adds 134 voters to the Republican total. Adding these voters nets out to 47% Obama, 45% Romney.

Another thing to consider is the behavior of Ohio voters two years ago. They turned on an incumbent Democrat governor by a sizable margin. Will they do the same to an incumbent Democrat President? I think so.

38 posted on 09/30/2012 5:54:48 AM PDT by Hoodat ("As for God, His way is perfect" - Psalm 18:30)
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To: shalom aleichem

You are correct, but I am not sure having Romney as the GOP candidate will make any difference even if he practically ‘lives’ in Ohio.


39 posted on 09/30/2012 5:56:48 AM PDT by Hostage (Be Breitbart!)
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To: Hostage

Who does a mail poll? And also, most of the respondents are from northeast Ohio, and make less than $40,000 a year.

This poll is very centered in Cleveland among lower income voters.


40 posted on 09/30/2012 6:02:20 AM PDT by mrs9x
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To: mrs9x

Yes, the poll is very skewed.

But the essential information is in the independent voter bloc.

Failing to attract enough independent voters will be Romney’s undoing. Sad but true.


41 posted on 09/30/2012 6:10:23 AM PDT by Hostage (Be Breitbart!)
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To: shalom aleichem

“The Dispatch Ohio poll has always been VERY accurate AND the paper is not a fan of Obama.”

This is correct. All the polls (including +D skewed polls) have recently been moving toward Obama.

I am concerned there is a lot of rationalization (party ID composition, day of the week, party registration numbers, pollster bias) going on among conservatives these last few weeks. This can mask the serious trouble Romney/Ryan are in.

At some point, we need to recognize that Romney is behind in almost all polls, that Intrade has him in Dole territory, and that we need to start dealing with reality the way it is and not the way we would like it to be.


42 posted on 09/30/2012 6:30:20 AM PDT by Perkalong
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To: MrDem

And yet this poll says 5% of McCain voters are now voting for Obama and only 6% of those Obamamania voters woke up and are now voting for Romney. Just not believable.


You are right....but if 6% of inner city welfare voters (who they predominantly polled) are turning on Obama, imagine how much of America he has lost! They just spun it to look good for Obama.


43 posted on 09/30/2012 6:47:47 AM PDT by marstegreg
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To: Perkalong

Any poll that shows Obama winning by more than he did in 2008 is clearly not believble


44 posted on 09/30/2012 6:58:06 AM PDT by zt1053
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To: ez

The majority of respondents to this poll voted for Ted Strickland, who lost, for governor in 2010. What does that tell you?


45 posted on 09/30/2012 7:03:32 AM PDT by outofstyle (Down All the Days)
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To: tatown

+9 Dem in a year that the absentees are (so far) indicating a +1 or +2 R turnout; and an even split with white men between Obama and Romney? You can roll that and smoke it!


46 posted on 09/30/2012 7:10:52 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: timlot

On the bright side — maybe these skewed polls will discourage the liberals from voting, since they believe they’ve already won? In SW Ohio, I see few Obama signs and not many Romney signs either.


47 posted on 09/30/2012 7:14:38 AM PDT by vortigern
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To: Perkalong

You digned up End of August this year.. Mod, ZOT this troll. Nice try DU’er.


48 posted on 09/30/2012 7:15:14 AM PDT by pburgh01
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To: Perkalong
I am concerned, etc., etc.


49 posted on 09/30/2012 7:23:25 AM PDT by o2bfree
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To: LS

The indicates 5% of McCain voters switching to Barry. That seems impossible to me... Does this jive with those you’ve talked to in the campaign?


50 posted on 09/30/2012 7:25:23 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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