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Gallup Daily Tracker Approval: 46A (-2), 46D (-1)
Gallup ^ | 9/30/12 | Gallup

Posted on 09/30/2012 10:38:18 AM PDT by tatown

46A-46D among adults

(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; gallup; obama; poll
This has been trending our way for the past few days and is suggestive of no trend towards Obama. This is for 'adults' so one would think that Oturds numbers would be worse among LV's.

Good news!

1 posted on 09/30/2012 10:38:25 AM PDT by tatown
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To: Perdogg; LS

Ping

Gallup’s numbers are still moving in the right direction.


2 posted on 09/30/2012 10:40:42 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: tatown

“A” “D”?


3 posted on 09/30/2012 10:40:42 AM PDT by BenLurkin (This is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire; or both)
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To: BenLurkin

Approve/Disapprove


4 posted on 09/30/2012 10:41:19 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: BenLurkin

If Obama’s approval stay bellow 50% he’s toast.

This is the only poll that matters.


5 posted on 09/30/2012 10:44:12 AM PDT by BarnacleCenturion
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To: BarnacleCenturion

I think Gallup has even said that no candidate with a sub 50% approval has been re-elected.


6 posted on 09/30/2012 10:45:38 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: tatown

Among adults? Not reg voters, or likely voters?

Here’s what you get.

I be provin obama in duh presidency - cuz he done give me a call foam. All I has to do be have welfare, sosh curity, and foo stam - and I can git da free foam.


7 posted on 09/30/2012 10:45:53 AM PDT by C. Edmund Wright ("You Might Be a Liberal" (YMBAL) Coming out Sept 1 by C. Edmund Wright)
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To: tatown

Good news. Among adults with a 46% approval spells disaster, and the media knows this.

Look at this tracker, Gallup’s Prez tracker, and Rasmussen’s national tracker. It’s basically a dead heat.

Don’t buy the swing states tracker. They mostly contain MI, PA, and WI - all historically Blue states (Bush won twice, w/out winning any) which greatly skews the aggregate.

VA, FL, OH, CO, NH, NV, and IA are your swing states. Isolate and focus on those states.


8 posted on 09/30/2012 10:52:21 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: C. Edmund Wright

LOL yep that’s about right


9 posted on 09/30/2012 10:54:51 AM PDT by conservativebabe
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To: tatown

No, I think it’s something like no candidate below 48% has ever won, and no candidate above 52% has ever lost. There’s a 5% gray area somewhere between the two percentages that either one can come out victorious.

But this might be in terms of “approval ratings” as opposed to a head-to-head matchup. Not really sure.


10 posted on 09/30/2012 10:55:20 AM PDT by greene66
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To: nhwingut

This tracker is the best news we’ve seen in almost a week. You are correct in that with 46% approval among adults, Obama cannot win. That is a fact.

What this tells me as well is that the ONLY way Rasmussen can show a ‘move’ towards Obama is to change his ratio of Dems to Reps.


11 posted on 09/30/2012 10:57:06 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: C. Edmund Wright

What's your big problemo about us
clinging to our guns and religion?


12 posted on 09/30/2012 10:59:11 AM PDT by devolve (----- ------- ------------c.1000_and_c.1620-------- ----------------------------)
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To: greene66
But this might be in terms of “approval ratings” as opposed to a head-to-head matchup. Not really sure.

And that does not factor in the Bradley effect. While we hung our hats on the Bradley effect in 2008, this year it is more likely to come to fruition due to the constant race baiting via the media. I am convinced that all undecideds are Romney voters too scared to be called a racist.
13 posted on 09/30/2012 11:01:40 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: tatown

And I don’t see things improving. Libya is going to explode in the coming week. Romney is going to call him out on national TV for the world to see, as an epic disaster. Romney will ignore every question and take the quesitons and push them back on Obama’s record. Obama will be stumbling and bumbling.

And then the jobs numbers are released on Firday. And based on the GDP, manufacturing order, and weekly UE clains, I expect to see another really weak report.

Romney could be up a couple of points by mid next week. With 4 weeks to go and a boat load of cash for ‘contrast’ ads.


14 posted on 09/30/2012 11:06:46 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: nhwingut

More Rasmussen swing state polling: Obama leads by 2 in NV, 3 in WI. Mitt now leads in MO (+3), NC (+6), CO (+2), IA (+3), and NH (+3)


15 posted on 09/30/2012 11:07:21 AM PDT by scbison
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To: scbison

With Ras +3 on Dems that should mean NV and WI are a tie.


16 posted on 09/30/2012 11:10:07 AM PDT by patriotspride
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To: tatown; MNJohnnie

Keep in mind that Rasmussen’s party ID is on a rolling 3-week average basis. This has its disadvantages and advantages. Right now, it’s at a disadvantage for conservatives.

Romney’s convention IDs has rolled off and Obama’s DNC bounce IDs are still on Ras.

If there is a surge in Republican ID and enthusiasm, Gallup would be the first one to pick it up.

I don’t think the dust will settle until Election Day.

Either way, polls are to be pooped on, and I say this as a “posts on FR only when it’s poll season” type.


17 posted on 09/30/2012 11:15:36 AM PDT by Cruising For Freedom (Don't be the proof that MSM PsyOps works.)
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To: tatown

“I think Gallup has even said that no candidate with a sub 50% approval has been re-elected.”

Great but it’s useless to compare this election with anything in the past. We have never had a clean black run for reelection with a harem of presstitutes cleaning up after him.


18 posted on 09/30/2012 11:17:21 AM PDT by lodi90
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To: scbison

Right.

But if you remove PA (Obama +12) and MI (Obama +12), the aggregate looks a heck of a lot better. Like if you were flunking two courses but then took them out of your GPA.

Especially when both states are historically Dem states. Neither has been won by GOP since 80s.


19 posted on 09/30/2012 11:17:41 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: patriotspride

Ras does D+3 on national polls. He uses different samples for each state, i.e. PA D+7, WI D+5, etc.


20 posted on 09/30/2012 11:20:13 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: nhwingut

Ras does D+3 on national polls. He uses different samples for each state, i.e. PA D+7, WI D+5, etc.


Thanks. Makes that WI result look even more promising. We just need to turn out the vote


21 posted on 09/30/2012 11:30:23 AM PDT by patriotspride
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To: lodi90

That is already factored in the approval number. He at 46% in spite of all those things. If he’s at 46% on Election Day, he’ll lose BIG.


22 posted on 09/30/2012 11:32:09 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: nhwingut

That’s a good point. MI, PA and WI are not swing states. Those are blue states. If Obama were to lose any he’ll lose period.

Romney needs to win FL, OH, CO, VA. If he wins those 4 he’ll have 270.


23 posted on 09/30/2012 11:35:52 AM PDT by Silver Sabre
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To: lodi90

I think it works the other way. The approval is a house of cards all based on race. Once the voters get in the booth with no echo of “you are a racist” they will easily check the ROMNEY oval and delete this thread in American history.


24 posted on 09/30/2012 11:37:59 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: Silver Sabre

Here’s a chart I made based on 2008 results...

States McCain lost

49.38 North Carolina 196
48.82 Indianna 207
48.10 Florida 236
46.80 Ohio 254
46.33 Virginia 267
44.71 Colorado 276


44.52 NH 280
44.39 Iowa
44.15 PA
43.82 MN
42.65 Nevada
42.31 WI
41.78 NM


25 posted on 09/30/2012 11:38:29 AM PDT by Silver Sabre
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To: Silver Sabre

Good info...I have been saying same. Remember when the early swing state polls had Romney up? All the media did was complain that Missouri and Indiana skewed the results.

Well, then they dropped those two (R states) and added Wisconsin and Michigan, two D state which then skewed the results the other way. PA is always considered a swing state even though it NEVER is in a prez race.

Bottomline: Obama will win PA and MI and probably WI. The only swing states Romney really needs to focus on are VA, OH, FL, and CO - as you showed. He wins those. He wins. None of the other states matter.


26 posted on 09/30/2012 11:47:29 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: C. Edmund Wright

LOL, speak truth to power !!!!!


27 posted on 09/30/2012 12:04:41 PM PDT by saturn
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To: BarnacleCenturion

Obama’s approval rating -50%, along with Romney + among Independent voters = Romney victory.


28 posted on 09/30/2012 12:11:32 PM PDT by The Fop (Excuse me while I clean the saliva out of my racist dog whistle)
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To: Cruising For Freedom; tatown

Remember Gallup is still tracking Registered Voters. Since those track 2-3 points to the Left of Likely voter polls suggest Rass is closer then Gallup on where the voters are right now.


29 posted on 09/30/2012 12:15:55 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: tatown

Count on the real approve is lower and the disapprove higher. Imagine an elderly person in the middle of a Rat thug infested area answering the phone and telling some stranger he/she disapproves of the community organizer.


30 posted on 09/30/2012 12:18:19 PM PDT by Proud2BeRight
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To: tatown

Gallup without George Gallup, is just another partisan liberal poll...will come through for dems when the chips are down, they all will

No Science in political polling.

Fox, Ras whatever, ALL have agenda of some type

We are doomed, because the masses are led by the polls


31 posted on 09/30/2012 12:30:29 PM PDT by Friendofgeorge (SARAH PALIN 2012 OR BUST)
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To: MNJohnnie

LV polls usually are worse for Dems than RV or ‘adult’ polls.


32 posted on 09/30/2012 12:31:37 PM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: nhwingut

Wi ground game well oiled and recently tested. Rats through everything they had at it. R’s have new credibility.


33 posted on 09/30/2012 12:41:35 PM PDT by sgtyork (The secret of happiness is freedom, and the secret of freedom, courage. Thucydides)
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To: tatown

I saw a Libyan poll that had Obama at 99% with 1% undecided.


34 posted on 09/30/2012 12:44:03 PM PDT by Leep
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To: nhwingut

Obama has to win PA and MI
Romney has to win OH, FL, IN, NC, VA, MO

If either candidate loses those it is very unlikely they can make it up elsewhere.

Romney should at a minimum do better than McCain so IN, NC and MO should be in the bag no matter what.


35 posted on 09/30/2012 1:07:28 PM PDT by Silver Sabre
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To: sgtyork

2008 was weird. WI and IN voted much more rat than usual.


36 posted on 09/30/2012 1:13:56 PM PDT by Silver Sabre
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To: Silver Sabre
Romney should at a minimum do better than McCain so IN, NC and MO should be in the bag no matter what.

My understanding is that IN is now a Romney lock and NC is pretty safe Romney.Not sure about MO....in '08 MO was razor thin for McLame and it's hard for me to see a single state going stronger for Osama this time than last.

37 posted on 09/30/2012 1:18:07 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive!)
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To: tatown
Here is some other good news: Ken Gardner ‏@kesgardner More Rasmussen swing state polling: Obama leads by 2 in NV, 3 in WI. Mitt now leads in MO (+3), NC (+6), CO (+2), IA (+3), and NH (+3). Also says that Obama is leading by 1 point in Ohio and 2 points in Virginia..so Romney is still in the game, if he can win those two states he wins the election
38 posted on 09/30/2012 1:20:50 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: tatown

Gallup is sort of schizophrenic (and causing me to become psychotic). 46% of adults approve? Yet, he is getting 49% among registered voters (presumably narrower than adults)?

Yes, the RV tracking poll is a 7 day one, and the A/D poll is a 3 day tracking....so maybe in the last few days he is not dong too well.

Even so, it’s very difficult to match apples to apples here.


39 posted on 09/30/2012 1:28:43 PM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: Silver Sabre

Which is to say: it call comes down to Romney winning in OH, FL and VA. Which is sort of where it has been now for a while.....


40 posted on 09/30/2012 1:30:41 PM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: Sarah Barracuda

Nice...


41 posted on 09/30/2012 1:31:15 PM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: nhwingut

“Look at this tracker, Gallup’s Prez tracker, and Rasmussen’s national tracker. It’s basically a dead heat.”

I though Gallup had O up 6 last time, has it changed?

If it’s closing ... good!


42 posted on 09/30/2012 2:06:01 PM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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To: ConservativeDude

Generally speaking whoever wins 2 out FL, OH, PA wins the election. However, Mitt could win 2 and still lose small.


43 posted on 09/30/2012 2:07:31 PM PDT by Silver Sabre
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To: BarnacleCenturion

I totally agree...big Indicator!


44 posted on 09/30/2012 3:01:34 PM PDT by matginzac
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To: C. Edmund Wright

lol!!! did you ax me dat? i be finnitt ta tell ya!


45 posted on 09/30/2012 4:00:53 PM PDT by BrianE ("Dead at 25 buried at 65 the average American" - Benjamin Franklin 1776)
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To: BarnacleCenturion

Rasmussen has some good stuff for Romney BUT shows Obama getting an approve from 50% of likely voters. How in God’s name can half of voters think there is an Obama record to approve of?

Imho you will see a huge black turnout, certainly more than 2004 or 2010. Maybe not 2008 but still higher than usual. That is why this will be very close.

(Although I think Obama should lose in a landslide).


46 posted on 09/30/2012 4:04:26 PM PDT by Andrei Bulba (No Obama, no way!)
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To: sgtyork

agree, though this is a Commie state....after the Walker victory we do have quite a bit of momentum, i mean gosh if you took out Dane county (Madistain area) the state was so red on the map it looked like a fireball.

I honestly can’t see Romney losing here but well then again this is a non - Confederate state so????


47 posted on 09/30/2012 4:26:42 PM PDT by BrianE ("Dead at 25 buried at 65 the average American" - Benjamin Franklin 1776)
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To: tatown

Assuming this poll is accurate, if 46% of any group of voters, likely or registered, approve of that empty-suit, Marxist charlatan’s performance, it indicates just how pervasive is the American culture-rot.

It’s over, folks! Flee while you can.


48 posted on 10/01/2012 2:06:53 PM PDT by rashley (Rashley)
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To: tatown

now imagine if the media actualy was fair nad not biased and that they did their job


49 posted on 10/01/2012 4:31:16 PM PDT by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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