Skip to comments.Battleground Poll: Race still tight (O 49 R 47)
Posted on 10/01/2012 5:17:43 AM PDT by nhwingut
The presidential race is tight enough nationally that a strong performance in Wednesdays debate by Mitt Romney could put him in the lead.
A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll of likely voters shows President Barack Obama ahead 49 percent to 47 percent, a point closer than a week ago and still within the margin of error.
Romney now leads by 4 points among independents, up slightly from a week ago. The Republican must overperform with that group to make up for the near monolithic support of African-Americans for Obama, as well as the huge Democratic advantage among Latinos and women.
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
Is there a typo at unskewed polls this morning?
Ok Romney is leading in independents, on the economy,on taxes and most think the country is on the wrong track but the one is ahead. Can only be true by over sampling D. No split I can find at article.
Internals were not listed?
Unskewed Polls changed his methodology. He was using R+4 to unskew the data. He now uses D+0.5. This poll is D+3 so there is not much to unskew.
To me this is good news. All we have been hearing is that the race is over. It is not! This race is deadlocked.
The absolute corruption within the media to knock ROmney out has failed. Obama cannot be saved.
ABC/WashPost have exact same number this morning: 49-47. Rasmussen is pretty much the same.
Romney is going to win this race.
Are the “monolithic” blacks and mexicans going to save the day for this pollster or they not going to show up? You can bet the White Americans will.
Pray for America
Paradoxical Quote of The Day From Ben Stein:
“Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen.
“Now add this, “Many of those who refuse, or are unable, to prove they are citizens will receive free insurance paid for by those who are forced to buy insurance because they are citizens.”
Think about it when you vote in November !
D 43 (29 Strong - 14 lean/soft)
R 41 (23 strong - 18 lean/soft)
Romney at 47% is not good for the One. Polls consistently overstate Democratic percentage of the vote. In fact, if you look at virtually any election, the best polls often overstate Dem support by anywhere from 2-3% points.
You couple that with about 5-7% of the Obama supporters stating that they might change their mind, and this election is for the taking.
The poll underpolls Indies, only 15% were polled.
The thing that everyone must watch is that Obama’s numbers consistently are staying below 50% in most polls. This is a huge indicator. Stay tuned, and man-up, Romney!!!!
If these polls are accurate (and I certainly have my doubts), then a lot of the American people are pretty darned stupid.
Exactly. That’s the new trick. They can’t get away with D+6-7 any more. So what they are now doing is undersampling Indies - and making the partisan split in the 40s, i.e. D 45 R 42 I 15.
In 2008 the Dems turned out at 39%. They are not going to be at 45%.
Romney has a 4 point edge with Indies in this poll.
If the split was a more realistic 37 34 29 - Romney would be up by 2-3.
Ed Goeas and Celinda Lake have done the Battleground poll for years. It’s one of the most solid of the public polls. Ed is a top Republican pollster and Celinda is a dem. They keep each other honest, and they do dual briefings on their results where they pretty candidly discuss the partisan yinyang and what-ifs. I had a brief acquaintance with Ed in a previous life. He’s a standup guy.
That’s why I think this poll is legit. The race is tied within MOE. (After 2 weeks of media telling us race was over - Nate Silver had it listed at 90% certainty or something stupid last week).
And Romney is up 4 with Indies. Obama won Indies by 8 in 2008 and won overall by 7. He cannot win in 2012 by losing Indies.
If someone can find the video of Ed and Celinda discussing the results, it would be worth viewing. They usually do a good job of discussing the internals, and each does a separate partisan analysis of weaknesses, opportunities, and what “my side” needs to move the results. They do a lot of demystifying.
The breakdown of the respondants was not good.
43D (29 strong) - 41R (23 strong) - 15I - 1O
I agree. The dems spent massively on negative advertising through the summer and the race is still very close. Romney can win this thing. The core tactical problems continue to be the facts that the press functions as Obama’s praetorian guard and that Obama’s status as the first black president insulates him from personal attack. A double standard, yes, but it’s there.
I think Romney’s best line of attack in the debates would be humor, but I don’t know if he has the knack for it. A “there you go again” line, successfully delivered, would do wonders.
I think they have been working on a “there you go again” line.
If you read the talking points coming from Obama, it’s what they fear. The O spox said the other day, “Obama will not use zingers.” In other words, we hope Romney does not either.
The Wash Post came out with a poll showing the same result today. However, it had this tidbit and was only sampled Dem +3, which is quite reasonable. I did not like this though:
“Each candidate faces challenges in turning out their supporters on Election Day, the poll shows. Young voters are less likely than they were in 2008 to say they likely will vote, and fully 96 percent of Obama voters say they think Obama will win the election. But, overall, 63 percent of voters — including 26 percent of Romney supporters — say they think Obama will win; the leader on this measure has gone on to win every election since 1984.”