Perhaps I missed it, but it seems to me that an insightful poll would be to take a random sample of 2008 Obama voters and report their intentions for the upcoming election.
That is one poll you will never see done by those who are claiming an Obama lead. It would likely show a large percentage of 2008 Obama voters planning to jump ship and vote for Romney or just sit out the election. On the other hand no McCain 2008 voters other than a very few blithering idiots are going to vote for Obama this time.
I didn’t support Romney in the primaries but I think that at the worst we have a candidate no better than we had in 2008. The rats, on the other hand, have a very faded rose, a lost messiah, a clown whose familiarity has bred contempt, a house guest who has stayed too long, a fascinating story teller who has turned out to be only a long winded liar, a stage performer who has taken far too many uninvited bows, a leader who can only claim to know where he is taking us if you assume that his original intent was to lead us to hell. When your worst fear is that he really meant it when he said that we have tried his way and it worked it takes an idiot to vote for him again.