Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

NH Poll: Obama opens up 15 point lead
Reported on RealClearPolitics ^ | October 1st | University of New Hampshire

Posted on 10/01/2012 5:59:41 PM PDT by Joe27

"President Barack Obama has opened a lead over Mitt Romney in New Hampshire. Independent voters who had been supporting Romney have swung to Obama in recent weeks." ....... "With one month remaining before the November 6 election, Barack Obama has opened up a statistically significant lead over Mitt Romney in the battleground state of New Hampshire. In the most recent Granite State Poll, 52% of likely New Hampshire voters plan to vote for Obama, 37% say they will support Romney, 3% prefer some other candidate, and 9% say they are undecided."

(Excerpt) Read more at unh.edu ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New Hampshire
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012polls; bias; nh2012; obama; riggedpolls; romney
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-100101-150151-200201 next last
Now, I have been skeptical about some of the criticisms launched at polling firms but the internals here just look out of whack.

Not surprisingly, if you dig through and find the voters listed 2008 preference (Who did you vote for in 2008?) the results are similar:

Obama 52% McCain 36%

That'd all be fine and dandy except for the fact that Obama won the state 54% to 44% in 2008.

Romney is probably down in NH but that stat alone suggests this poll is a joke. Like Hewitt's interview with the Quinnipiac pollster shows, they never apply the basic standard of any analytic work: Ask yourself, "Does this make sense?" when all your number crunching is over. Assuming considerably less Republicans will show up is probably not a safe assumption. Interestingly, the party ID numbers in the internals weren't as screwed up, raising questions about how they screened their sizable 'independent' group.

I'm not projecting victory but it'll be 2004 all over again if Mitt pulls this out. I can hear the media now: "What?! How were our polls wrong?!?!??! We know the American people all too well!!!"

1 posted on 10/01/2012 5:59:47 PM PDT by Joe27
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Joe27

What was the exact double-digit number UNH’s polling for the Boston Globe had had Scott Brown losing to Coakley by?

(Actually I think NH could be tough for Romney.)


2 posted on 10/01/2012 6:02:17 PM PDT by 9YearLurker
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Joe27

Uh, yeah—no.


3 posted on 10/01/2012 6:02:39 PM PDT by OCCASparky (Steely-eyed killer of the deep.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Joe27

I’m in southwestern NH.

I’m seeing twice as many 0bamao signs as Romney signs.

Not scientific, I know.

Just sayin’.


4 posted on 10/01/2012 6:04:21 PM PDT by Westbrook (Children do not divide your love, they multiply it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Joe27

We need 1 of 3 states Romney reside in. Mich and Mass is out so NH needs to step up


5 posted on 10/01/2012 6:05:55 PM PDT by personalaccts (Is George W going to protect the border?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 9YearLurker

It’s not just tough for Romney, the rocks in these peoples’ heads are tough on the United States.

What fools. Bad economy, bad wars, unpopular Obamacare, arrogant president, extravagant private vacations for Michelle - and these people can’t get enough of it.


6 posted on 10/01/2012 6:06:16 PM PDT by Williams (No Obama)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Westbrook

Why is this a surprise? North east states are liberal and they have a choice between Liberal and Liberal-Lite, why go with the Lite? Thanks, Republican Party.


7 posted on 10/01/2012 6:07:04 PM PDT by conservaterian (Sarah/DeMint '12-NOPE Cain?- Guess NOT. ABO & ABMR. I'm going Goode.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Joe27

Doesn’t Romney have a house in New Hampshire? I thought it was supposed to be his for the taking.


8 posted on 10/01/2012 6:07:10 PM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Joe27

Sure, when you poll nothing but Democrats. All twenty of them.


9 posted on 10/01/2012 6:08:07 PM PDT by SkyDancer ("OF COURSE I TALK TO MYSELF - Sometimes I need an expert opinion")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Joe27

I saw a poll that gives Obama a 16% enthusiasm advantage in North Carolina.

That is just ridiculous


10 posted on 10/01/2012 6:08:12 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Westbrook

I’m in southern NH (Nashua area) and I see many more Romney signs than Obama signs. Not that that means anything...


11 posted on 10/01/2012 6:08:37 PM PDT by cantfindagoodscreenname (I really hate not knowing what was said in the deleted posts....)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Joe27

Oh I guess some folks in NH want more dead ambassadors, more dead mexican teenagers, death panels andvising their moms on their end of life options.

Do it up, NH, re-eleect Barack Hussein Hitler, you bunch of dopes.


12 posted on 10/01/2012 6:08:58 PM PDT by chris37 (Heartless.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Joe27

Depression, despair, division, destruction, degradation, and stagnation.. The new normal!


13 posted on 10/01/2012 6:10:10 PM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Joe27
The communist Hussein is leading by 15% in New Hampshire?

HAH!!!!

I'm bookmarking this thread right now for the day after the election.

14 posted on 10/01/2012 6:10:29 PM PDT by LiveFree99
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: personalaccts

CA is out too.


15 posted on 10/01/2012 6:11:31 PM PDT by 9YearLurker
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Westbrook
I’m in southwestern NH. I’m seeing twice as many 0bamao signs as Romney signs. Not scientific, I know. Just sayin’.

I'm in central NH, right between NH1 and 2. I've seen a total of four, count 'em, four Obama signs. Romney signs are all over the place.

But you're right, not scientific at all.

16 posted on 10/01/2012 6:11:54 PM PDT by MAexile (Bats left, votes right)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Joe27

Why do they even bother polling any Republicans. They arent looking for the truth so go all the way.


17 posted on 10/01/2012 6:12:02 PM PDT by italianquaker (The 47 pct need to pay their fair share)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Joe27

Isn’t NH the “Live Free or Die” state???

What happened to them?


18 posted on 10/01/2012 6:12:02 PM PDT by Right_in_Virginia
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Joe27

That “Live Free or Die” thing was so old-school anyway. This is New America! We get lots and lots of free stuff now! Money for college! “Free” health care! Breakfast, lunch and dinner at school for the kids! Obamaphones! Government money for the mortgage! Food stamps! Welfare money! Unemployment checks for 99 weeks!

Who needs freedom when we get all these cool government freebies? Grab your hammock, boys and girls! Life is GOOOOOOOOD!!!!


19 posted on 10/01/2012 6:12:08 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Record high turnout is our hope for sending 0bama home. Pray hard!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Westbrook
Not to hurt your feelings, but why was NH EVER a conservative state?

You're surrounded by pinko states on all sides.

The entire NE has beeen democratic for years.

What has been so "special" about your state?

20 posted on 10/01/2012 6:12:26 PM PDT by boop (It's not personal...it's strictly business)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Joe27

Live For Free or Die?

And we let this state choose our candidate???


21 posted on 10/01/2012 6:12:44 PM PDT by Theophilus (Not merely prolife, but prolific)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Williams

Whatever ~ the polls, whoever did them, are probably based on a less than 9% response ~ and at that level are woefully out of whack when it comes to randomness of the selection. I wouldn’t worry about them. This year is different for the pollsters ~ far worse ~ 50% worse than 2009. See: http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/30/we-are-the-91-only-9-of-americans-cooperate-with-pollsters/


22 posted on 10/01/2012 6:13:46 PM PDT by muawiyah
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: conservaterian

Exactl;y, This is not surprising for New hampshire.

It;s a state filled with yankee liberals who cannot tell sheit from Shinola.


23 posted on 10/01/2012 6:13:56 PM PDT by Venturer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Joe27

They must love them high gas prices in New Hampshire.


24 posted on 10/01/2012 6:14:19 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Westbrook

I don’t believe it.


25 posted on 10/01/2012 6:14:27 PM PDT by reasonisfaith
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Joe27
New state motto.

Live Free, or pay for what ever the Govt tells you to!

26 posted on 10/01/2012 6:17:35 PM PDT by rawcatslyentist ("Behold, I am against you, O arrogant one," Jeremiah 50:31)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: boop

NH is the same state that voted for progressive Dem Woodrow Wilson twice and super progressive FDR three times. Their conservative rep is kind of iffy in my opinion.


27 posted on 10/01/2012 6:18:36 PM PDT by princeofdarkness (The Obama Administration is circling the wagons. But the Truth Indians are using flaming arrows.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: Westbrook

I’m in Nashua, and I haven’t seen a single Obama yard sign. Romney/Ryan signs everywhere (and I mean EVERYWHERE) and only the occasional, sad O bumper sticker on a Jetta or Prius.


28 posted on 10/01/2012 6:19:22 PM PDT by fluffy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Joe27

This sounds funny to me.NH was the state that,in 2010,flipped both their House seats from Maoist Rats to Republicans *and* sent a Republican to the Senate.I don’t live in NH so I’m no expert but my statement about 2010 is accurate.Also,the New Hampshire legislature just overrode the Rat governor’s veto and enacted a voter ID law.And lastly my understanding is that the Republican candidate for governor is leading the Rat.


29 posted on 10/01/2012 6:21:12 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: cantfindagoodscreenname

Except for Downtown Nashua and the elite towns of Hollis, New Boston, and Mt. Vernon, that area tends to be more conservative.

I live near Keene (aka Kiev), where the Keene Sentinel (Kiev Slantinel) reflects the opinions of thousands of students at Keene State.

In “Live Free or Die NH”, the college students get to vote twice legally this year. Once in their NH college town and by absentee ballot in their home town.

It won’t be as easy to go precinct shopping with names from the obituary, like they used to, though. You need a photo ID to vote this year.

So, you win some, you lose some. They get to vote at least twice, anyway, if the DemonRAT precinct wardens can awaken them from their drug hazed and alcohol soaked stupor.

Meanwhile, I will crawl over broken glass to vote AGAINST the Communist usurper. It sickens me to know that a commie ideologue like him, with the filthy connections he has, and the Chicago machine, even has a fighting chance to be seriously considered for a POTUS.


30 posted on 10/01/2012 6:21:15 PM PDT by Westbrook (Children do not divide your love, they multiply it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Right_in_Virginia

The Democrats are fighting like hell to make sure that college students can vote here without having to declare domicile here and get a NH drivers’ license.


31 posted on 10/01/2012 6:21:56 PM PDT by mvpel (Michael Pelletier)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: Joe27

It looks like they are polling mostly government or union voters. Notice I did not say “workers”. These people have killed the golden goose. The private sector is close to dead. Where will the government get the money to pay all the pensions and salaries?


32 posted on 10/01/2012 6:22:12 PM PDT by Flavious_Maximus
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Joe27

Why are there so many posters here trying to fake like Obama’s ahead in New Hampshire?


33 posted on 10/01/2012 6:22:59 PM PDT by reasonisfaith
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Joe27

People, please relax and stop dumping on New Hampshire. This silly poll is nowhere close to being accurate.


34 posted on 10/01/2012 6:23:43 PM PDT by LiveFree99
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Westbrook

In my area of the state there are many more Romney signs than Obama.

A few empty chairs out in the front yards as well.


35 posted on 10/01/2012 6:24:43 PM PDT by nh1
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: reasonisfaith

Must be because they think the dems can duplicate the 15% lead in NH on election day with fraudulent votes from New York and Massachussetts residents.


36 posted on 10/01/2012 6:26:02 PM PDT by reasonisfaith
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: cantfindagoodscreenname

I’m not seeing any bumper stickers or yard signs this time. In 2008 they were everywhere. Remember all the stickers with lipstick for Palin. I am just too lazy to get one this year. That may be the case for alot of people.


37 posted on 10/01/2012 6:28:05 PM PDT by dandiegirl
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Joe27; All

Try the table in this article to show the percentage of people called who actually respond to a poll.

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/30/we-are-the-91-only-9-of-americans-cooperate-with-pollsters/


38 posted on 10/01/2012 6:29:38 PM PDT by mazda77 ("Defeating the Totalitarian Lie" By: Hilmar von Campe. Everybody should read it.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Westbrook
Well I am supporting Romney but I won't put a sign up because I fear someone would retaliate. Just because there are no Romney signs doesn't mean everyone is voting for Obama Even if you see lots of Obama signs would you just not vote? There are so many things on our ballot this year that I would vote no matter what.
39 posted on 10/01/2012 6:31:57 PM PDT by funfan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Joe27

Obama can’t even win Mass. by 15 points.


40 posted on 10/01/2012 6:34:27 PM PDT by Lysandru
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Westbrook

New Hampshire’s 4 Electoral votes was the difference for W in 2000 so make sure you *do* crawl over broken glass next month.


41 posted on 10/01/2012 6:35:33 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: Lysandru

The MSM is now reporting that Obama has opened up a 98% lead.

no actual polling. but that is what they are reporting right now.

(/s)


42 posted on 10/01/2012 6:38:18 PM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 40 | View Replies]

To: Joe27

REALITY ALERT EVERYONE:

Romney is up by +3. Poll dated 9/18/2012 conducted by Rasmussen. And I’m supposed to believe that Obamster is up by 15 points. Bullfeathers!

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2012_new_hampshire_president


43 posted on 10/01/2012 6:38:18 PM PDT by Signalman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Gay State Conservative

Rasmussen has Romney ahead in New Hampshire.


44 posted on 10/01/2012 6:39:09 PM PDT by WashingtonSource
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 41 | View Replies]

To: Lysandru

Mass? He can’t win CA by 15 pts. And I live here!


45 posted on 10/01/2012 6:41:58 PM PDT by Signalman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 40 | View Replies]

To: Williams

I agree. I just don’t get it.


46 posted on 10/01/2012 6:42:18 PM PDT by Recovering Ex-hippie
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Joe27

The late October NY Times / CBS national poll will be 85% Obama, 10% Romney, 3% Undecided, and 2% Illegal.


47 posted on 10/01/2012 6:42:18 PM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: All

yea, how’s that “Free State Project” working out.


48 posted on 10/01/2012 6:42:18 PM PDT by newnhdad (Where will you be during the Election Riots of 2012/2013?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 44 | View Replies]

To: Joe27

15 Point Lead? I don’t think so. Obama doesn’t have 15 points in California for chrissakes.


49 posted on 10/01/2012 6:42:26 PM PDT by GVnana
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Williams
Maybe Romney's campaign has been so weak and timid that Romney has not given people a reason to vote for him.

According to Larry Kudlow, in a 45 minute speech there were only 200 words devoted to the economy.

50 posted on 10/01/2012 6:43:47 PM PDT by Dave W
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-100101-150151-200201 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson