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Absentee ballot requests grow in Ohio (spreadsheet bump)
wdtn ^ | 10/1/12 | wires

Posted on 10/01/2012 9:57:01 PM PDT by Ravi

above

(Excerpt) Read more at wdtn.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: obama; poll; romney; ryan
We are now up to 920,000 requests. My prediction for Ohio turnout is 5.5-5.6 million. That is already 16.5% of expected turnout. Check the spreadsheet to see how we're doing with absentee requests compared to 2008. Once reviewed, start doing some guesstimates/fun with math in your head. Obama won OH by 5 points in 08, about 260,000 votes.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

1 posted on 10/01/2012 9:57:12 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi

What does this mean? You are completely devoid of information.


2 posted on 10/01/2012 10:07:27 PM PDT by bray (If you vote for a communist what does that make you?)
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

Poll ping.


3 posted on 10/01/2012 10:11:26 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: bray

You should follow threads by LS and myself over the past few days. Shorthand version: dems greatly outvoted us in early/absentee voting in 08 by 14%. Their margin is now down to 5%. These are ballots requested by dems/repubs/indies. 920,000 ballots have been requested - most will be returned (over 90% historically). Look at the spreadsheet not necessarily in totality but individual county and compare 2008 requests from dems/repubs and 2012 requests from dems/repubs. Therein lies your answer. Many caveats of course but trendlines look good.


4 posted on 10/01/2012 10:13:06 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: bray

You should follow threads by LS and myself over the past few days. Shorthand version: dems greatly outvoted us in early/absentee voting in 08 by 14%. Their margin is now down to 5%. These are ballots requested by dems/repubs/indies. 920,000 ballots have been requested - most will be returned (over 90% historically). Look at the spreadsheet not necessarily in totality but individual county and compare 2008 requests from dems/repubs and 2012 requests from dems/repubs. Therein lies your answer. Many caveats of course but trendlines look good.


5 posted on 10/01/2012 10:14:46 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: bray

They can’t steal the election by busing in a bunch of illegal voters from across state lines. So they will use absentee ballots. Saves them the gas money and serves the same purpose.


6 posted on 10/01/2012 10:17:17 PM PDT by political1 (Love your neighbors)
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To: political1

No, not at all. It’s pretty tight with republican SOS in Ohio. This is overall good news.


7 posted on 10/01/2012 10:20:42 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi

So they are down but still lead? How does that result in a Romney win?


8 posted on 10/01/2012 10:23:01 PM PDT by Andrei Bulba (No Obama, no way!)
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To: Andrei Bulba

Number one, dems always vote early/absentee in Ohio. They had 14% more voters than us in 08 but only won the state by 5 points. If they only lead us by 5% in voters (not votes), using the crude measurement above, we should be ahead by 4 or 5. Right? However, many variables to consider: more dems will vote repub this year and indies favor us by some margin (conclusion above is based on no dems voting romney and no repubs voting Obama and indies splitting 50/50); the way you are labeled a dem or repub is at county level not state and based on you voting in a party primary (so some of the unaffiliated are dems/repubs but haven’t voted in a party - we still have to figure that out); large dem counties in 08 mailed ballot applications to all their voters, this year, the state mailed ballots apps to ALL registered voters throughout the state. So all these factors at play but the easiest thing to assess for me is go individual county by individual county and see the difference between 08 and 12. What a difference 4 years makes. Hope that helps.


9 posted on 10/01/2012 10:32:18 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi
Nice job!!! BTW here's a hotlink to your doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0
10 posted on 10/01/2012 10:34:56 PM PDT by Lexinom
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To: Ravi

Thanks for doing the legwork for all of us.


11 posted on 10/01/2012 10:35:53 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: arrogantsob

It’s not really much. Data is there to sift through and play around with and see which way things might be shifting. I’ve just been staring it down. All of the credit goes to the person who put this spreadsheet together for all 88 Ohio counties! I was just checking 3 myself (cuyahoga, hamilton and franklin). Jose I believe is his name and @ningrim on twitter. I follow him there.


12 posted on 10/01/2012 10:40:45 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi

I’ve been getting absentee ballots for years, automatically. Now I’m not on the list for some unknown reason. Hmmmmm..........

(no surprise—I live in Santa Cruz)


13 posted on 10/01/2012 11:11:05 PM PDT by EggsAckley ("There's an Ethiopian in the fuel supply!")
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To: EggsAckley

Not sure why that occurs...when I lived in San Jose, I voted each election at a nearby church, but one year, received an absentee ballot that stated I was now in an absentee-ballot only precinct. stayed that way for at least two elections (I moved after that). Do you know if you are in an absentee-only precinct?


14 posted on 10/01/2012 11:29:30 PM PDT by leakinInTheBlueSea
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To: Ravi

If absentee ballots represent 20% of the total and the dem requests are down 9 percentage points from 2008 you can’t simply subtract 9 points from Obama’s win with ALL ballots (ie 5 point win - 9 points = 4 point loss). Assuming everything besides absentee voting is equal the correct math would be (5 point win - (9 points x 20%) = 3.2 win).

Sorry if I misunderstood something in your post.


15 posted on 10/02/2012 12:21:19 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: tatown

There are 29 counties that haven’t reported data and not on the spreadsheet. McCain won 27 of them by huge margins. We need to see what those absentee ballot requests en up. Also some of the big republican counties don’t have data for 08 listed on the website so they at this time are not included in the totals (eg. Warren). Bottom line, we need more data points for an overall picture but for the individual counties like Franklin, Hamilton and Cuyahoga you can kind of get a better idea I believe. So a Cuyahoga margin of 260,000 in 08 currently stands at 54,000 and my guess is it ends up staying between 100 to 150 thousand (we’ll see). If that’s the case, then that is about a 110,000 to 160,000 margin that Romney needs to make up in the rest of the state. Bush made up an even greater margin than that in 2004. So at this point individual counties year to year I think is more pertinent. But you are correct, totals still not entirely clear yet. Lots of missing data.


16 posted on 10/02/2012 6:52:07 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi
If that’s the case, then that is about a 110,000 to 160,000 margin that Romney needs to make up in the rest of the state.

If that's the margin he needs to make up, outside of Cuyahoga, he will win. Probably by 40,000 to 90,000 votes or .8% to 1.5% margin of victory. Outside the need for a recount.

17 posted on 10/02/2012 6:55:20 AM PDT by NeoCaveman ("If I had a son he'd look like B.O.'s lunch" - Rin Tin Tin)
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To: Ravi

Is it tomorrow that the missing counties will be reporting?


18 posted on 10/02/2012 8:00:16 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: AFPhys

I believe some will fill in tomorrow.


19 posted on 10/02/2012 8:33:52 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi

Thank you for all the info


20 posted on 10/02/2012 10:48:43 AM PDT by Andrei Bulba (No Obama, no way!)
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To: Ravi

I like this comment from the Moe Lane blog from someone called “Bort”:

“I don’t need polls or absentee ballot numbers to tell me that Romney will win Ohio. First, Obama won the state in 2008 by 4.5%. Does anybody actually think that Obama is in better shape today than 4 years ago? Hell no. Next, three states that border Ohio–Indiana, Kentucky, and W. Va.–have completely turned against Obama. 42% of W.Va. dems voted for a FELON over Obama; in Ky., 40% of dems voted “uncommitted” over Obama; and Obama’s campaign gave up on Indiana 2 years ago. Does anybody really believe that the Ohioans that live right across the border from these states are as enthused–let alone more enthused–for Obama this year? Hell no. Also, Obama is struggling in Western Pa., which borders Ohio as well. Next, Obama’s coal policies have ticked off Southeastern Ohio, which is Appalachia and coal country.

BTW, the most telling early absentee ballot count is in Warren County (Cincinnati suburb). Republicans have returned their absentee ballots in at a 5 to 1 clip over Democrats. This suggests that a huge Republican turnout is going to happen in this election, and a lot of Dems are going to stay home. Also, a higher turnout in Ohio benefits Republicans, b/c this means more whites will show up, and whites support Romney by 60/40.”


21 posted on 10/02/2012 11:02:25 AM PDT by plushaye (Election 2012 Prayer Force)
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