Skip to comments.Which Polls Count
Posted on 10/02/2012 5:21:50 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
It is very clear that the polls this election year are wildly out of sync. Consider the four polls which were based on several days of surveys ending on September 16.
Pew Research had Obama up by 8%, NBC/Wall Street Journal had Obama up by 5%, Monmouth/Survey USA had Obama up by 3%, and Rasmussen had Romney up by 2%. These polls had margins of error which were significantly smaller than the differences between the polls. Some of the polls are bad science or worse.
Which polls should be trusted, and which should be treated with great suspicion? Some news organizations report self-generated poll results, like the CNN/ORC poll here, which now reports likely voters but before that reported registered voters. The polls are not conducted every day, but rather over periods which seem to be determined by the news organization. Moreover, no one is paying CNN for its polling information.
Compare CNN to Rasmussen, which sells access to its polls and reports results every day. Rasmussen asks the same question each time, it asks the question every day, it provides a rolling average (rather than a snapshot), and people fork out money to see what Scott Rasmussen has found out about America. Rasmussen's business is polling America and reporting accurate results. Although Scott Rasmussen makes little attempt to conceal his conservatism, he also reports polls which must make us -- and him -- from time to time go "Ouch!"
Gallup has similarities to Rasmussen. The Gallup Poll is a rolling average based upon polling surveys taken every day with the same questions and wording. Gallup, like Rasmussen, is in the business of polling, and it sells its services to businesses. In fact, Gallup and the GWU Battleground Poll seem at times to minimize their own findings,
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
I believe the concensus is Rasmussen is the one and only 100 percent accurate polling done at least by FREEPERS.
Why? I want everyone on their toes and fighting. I don't want overconfidence nor defeatism. I want everyone out there doing what they have to do (e.g., vote).
There has been, and hopefully always be one accurate poll - the one taken every two years on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. ALL other polls are only shadows of that event and have no bearing on reality.
But, these wisps of vapor do have one purpose - to raise money for both political parties and particularly for the dimocratic support machine called the MSM.
Rasmussen is fairly accurate but not 100% because Ras is automated and can't sample cell phones.
If you can't sample cell phones, you can't reach the people that use the "obama phone" so you have to estimate what they would say.
The ones where you agree with the results.
The link below is a time machine going back to October 2004 when the maggot infected mediots and their knee pad pollsters were declaring Kerry would be president:
They were wrong then and now!