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Early voting statistics (NC, OH, IA and others)
gmu/spreadsheet/early statistics ^ | 10/2/12 | me

Posted on 10/02/2012 8:09:15 AM PDT by Ravi

above

(Excerpt) Read more at elections.gmu.edu ...


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: 2012; obama; romney; ryan
NC: Absentee ballot requests-102,000 repubs 53% dems 26%

Returned ballots-16,400 repubs 51.5% dems 29.6%

Ohio: Cuyahoga/Hamilton updates this am-

Cuyahoga: 175,600 total requests thus far (94,700 dems, 40,800 repubs) 2008: 231,500 total requests (120,000 dems, 35,000 repubs)

Repubs in cuyahoga already up 6,000 requests over 2008 for all of 2008 and fair amount I believe true indies in cuyahoga turning in ballot requests - trend is favorable here (dems have 54,000 overvote so far). Cuyahoga repubs may be key going forward.

Hamilton: 67,500 requests so far (19,600 repubs, 10,500 dems); margin is now over 9000 in our favor

Hamilton 2008: 103,000 total requests (23,700 repubs, 16,800 dems

We are already beating our 2008 overvote of 7000. It is now 9000 and climbing. But this county, indies will be key.

IA: Dems at 61% of absentee/early requests and Repubs at 17%. Dems always outvote us here and in 2008, we were outvoted 50% to 28%. Right now, about a 97,000 vote difference here - we will catch up here and we need to push this ratio to 44% dem and 38% repub which it was in 2010.

Interested in comments/questions/contradictions/doubts/criticism about this information.

1 posted on 10/02/2012 8:09:17 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi

And yet the “Pollsters” are using the 2008 model for their calculations.


2 posted on 10/02/2012 8:12:02 AM PDT by Don Corleone ("Oil the gun..eat the cannoli. Take it to the Mattress.")
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To: Ravi

I spoke too soon regarding IA. Dems now at 57.8% and dropping and Repubs at 20.3% and rising. These are requests (more pertinent than returns at this stage. A difference of about 92,500 this morning (142,864 to 50,319). It was 97,000 yesterday. Keep this up Iowa.


3 posted on 10/02/2012 8:12:42 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi

keep me on your list...


4 posted on 10/02/2012 8:14:35 AM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: LS; LdSentinal; Perdogg; Jet Jaguar

ping. Jet can do the rest


5 posted on 10/02/2012 8:15:47 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: Ravi

Ping me if you can
Thnx


6 posted on 10/02/2012 8:18:09 AM PDT by italianquaker (The 47 pct need to pay their fair share)
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To: Ravi

I hate early voting and the release of statistics. Now the dems know exactly what they have to do to make up the difference with their turnout and voting fraud.


7 posted on 10/02/2012 8:23:19 AM PDT by No Socialist
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To: Ravi

pfl


8 posted on 10/02/2012 8:23:34 AM PDT by Batman11 (We came for the chicken sandwiches and a Sweet Tea Party broke out!)
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To: Ravi

WHat were NC’s numbers in 2008? Absentee ballots always favor republican and NC has a lot of military. This is different than the so called “early voting” so we need an apples to apples comparison.


9 posted on 10/02/2012 8:25:23 AM PDT by wolfman23601
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To: No Socialist

I hate early voting and the release of statistics. Now the dems know exactly what they have to do to make up the difference with their turnout and voting fraud.

+1


10 posted on 10/02/2012 8:25:54 AM PDT by omega4179 ( el 0bama comio un perro)
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To: Ravi

keep me on your ping list


11 posted on 10/02/2012 8:26:16 AM PDT by pollywog ("O Thou who changest not, abide with me.".......)
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To: Ravi; Jet Jaguar

Jet Jaguar pings to these articles? If so, please add me. Thanks.


12 posted on 10/02/2012 8:33:17 AM PDT by sitetest (If Roe is not overturned, no unborn child will ever be protected in law.)
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To: wolfman23601

We are ahead of 2008 absentee pace not by a lot but we are ahead.


13 posted on 10/02/2012 8:43:13 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: No Socialist

I hate early voting and the release of statistics. Now the dems know exactly what they have to do to make up the difference with their turnout and voting fraud.


Wait for the Oct. surprise. If the early votes are in favor of obama, the results will be announced early to discourage Republican turnout.


14 posted on 10/02/2012 8:46:51 AM PDT by chessplayer
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To: Ravi

If the trend in absentees hold on election day, NC goes for Romney easily, because Obama won by such a small margin in 2008. Thgat may be why a few weeks ago Obama’s guys quietly shifted their ad buys in NC to southern MN to hit parts of eastern Iowa.


15 posted on 10/02/2012 9:00:48 AM PDT by Mr. Silverback (Reagan @ only 39/Mondale +5/Dukakis +17/McCain +3...panic is unwarranted. So is complacency.)
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To: Ravi; LS

Got to Over Come a 54k vote deficit in Cuyahoga.


16 posted on 10/02/2012 10:02:34 AM PDT by CPT Clay (Follow me on Twitter @Clay N TX)
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To: CPT Clay

Was much bigger in 08.


17 posted on 10/02/2012 10:16:08 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: CPT Clay; Ravi; LS; Jet Jaguar
CPT Clay: Got to overcome a 54k vote deficit in Cuyahoga.

Ravi etal don't believe that.

They believe that Romney getting wholloped "only" 2:1 in early ballots in this particular County indicates good news for Romney winning overall.

Dubious Statistical Analysis 101

18 posted on 10/02/2012 10:23:45 AM PDT by sam_paine (X .................................)
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To: CPT Clay
Not if Dsdown across the board and Rs up acrowss the board everywhere else. Traditionally, Rs win if Ham and Cuyahoga offset mor or less. Look @ Summit numbers for ex. Down huge.

And, BTW, a 2:1 lead in Cuyahoga is massively down from 3:1 in 08.

19 posted on 10/02/2012 10:36:37 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: sam_paine; Ravi; LS

Let me spell it out for you...

Democrats are heavily favored for absentee voting in Ohio. Not just “early” voting, absentee voters are heavily D as well. In 2008, Democrats had a 15% advantage in absentee voting. Today, this is 5%.

In 2008, Obama won Ohio by 4.6%. If on an apples-to-apples comparison on a heavily D-weighted subset compared to 2008, Republicans are outperforming 8% to 10% compared to 2008, then this is VERY good for Romney.

Yeah, I’d prefer that Rs lead outright, but everything right now is still looking like a big Romney victory in OH. Kindly try and pay attention rather than being a wet blanket, thank you.


20 posted on 10/02/2012 10:47:41 AM PDT by Cruising For Freedom (Don't be the proof that MSM PsyOps works.)
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To: sam_paine

This particular county is Cuyahoga the biggest. Obama got 460,000 votes to McCain’s 200,000. So a 54,000 vote difference here that ends up between 100 and 150 thousand will be will be much less than a 260,000 deficit from 08.


21 posted on 10/02/2012 10:51:09 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: sam_paine

Wow, are you that dense? Any Pennsylvanian would tell you that if Romney came out of Philly getting “walloped” by 100,000 votes that Romney would win in a landslide. Cuyahoga went for Obama by 30+ points. Yeah, if we come out only down 54,000 out of Cuyahoga? Election over and Romney wins by 5.


22 posted on 10/02/2012 11:02:03 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Cruising For Freedom; Ravi; LS
Kindly try and pay attention rather than being a wet blanket, thank you.

Kindly try and acknowledge the difference between correlation and causation rather than totally disregarding statistics, thank you.

What happens in any one county does not necessarily predict what will happen overall. Keep your blankets dry, too!

23 posted on 10/02/2012 11:07:10 AM PDT by sam_paine (X .................................)
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To: LS
Wow, are you that dense?

Are you that lightweight?

24 posted on 10/02/2012 11:09:01 AM PDT by sam_paine (X .................................)
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To: sam_paine; LS

I know my math pretty well. It’s my graduate degree and profession.

BTW, the numbers I was referring to were for the entire state, not for just one county.

Ravi/LS like to talk about about the county that is the equivalent of, say, Detroit, Philadelphia, or Seattle. In most states, almost all Ds come from one big blue pimple. If that pimple’s reduced in size significantly, then, yes, that portends to a big R victory.

There is nothing bad that can be spun out of these numbers, unless you wish to make a case of how the Independents might trend D or if a large percentage of those Republicans are from Operation Chaos.


25 posted on 10/02/2012 11:17:50 AM PDT by Cruising For Freedom (Don't be the proof that MSM PsyOps works.)
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To: sam_paine
You are right and are even more dense, or you deliberately not reading, if you aren't getting this: IT IS ACROSS EVERY SIGLE COUNTY. No, one county cannot predict another but when ALL counties are showing similar percentage movement--- downward by Ds and way up for Rs --- then a sensible person would simply look at numbers and trends, which tell (SO FAR) an incredible story of polls being horribly off if they use anything short of a R+1 turnout (at minimum).

Now, I think relly that you are not dense but your prejudices are clouding your judgment. Comparing 2012 to 2008 shows so far a sea change in R and D turnout.

26 posted on 10/02/2012 11:23:28 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS; Cruising For Freedom
LS: Now, I think relly that you are not dense but your prejudices are clouding your judgment. Comparing 2012 to 2008 shows so far a sea change in R and D turnout.

Indeed. There could be a sufficient sea change from 2008 for a Romney win, and their could be an insufficient sea change in which he would lose.

I'm not sure what prejudices would be clouding me...btw. That I was nearly thrown off FR by JimRob for DARING to support Romney before JimRob changed his mind? I'd love to see Romney pull this out. I hope he does. But the dark clouds to that silver lining is that it will be generations before we can ever get back to 1984 because if this election is close enough to dither over these extrapolations where a near dictator incompetent is still winning anywhere, then yeah, I think it's not something to celebrate or be optimistic about. It's not the discovery of a hidden gem, it's the realization that we're in a collapsed mineshaft.

Cruise: There is nothing bad that can be spun out of these numbers, unless you wish to make a case of how the Independents might trend D or if a large percentage of those Republicans are from Operation Chaos.

Yes, that is the point. I'll repeat: if this election is still close enough to dither over these extrapolations where a near dictator incompetent is still winning anywhere, then yeah, I think it's not something to celebrate or be optimistic about.

Either we lose in a majority win for a marxist incompetent dictator, or we squeak by a win with pockets of wild enthusiasm for a marxist incompetent dictator ex, while Romney-elect will be jeered and smeared for his entire term by a fifth column press.

Other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?!

27 posted on 10/02/2012 11:42:35 AM PDT by sam_paine (X .................................)
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To: plushaye

I posted this comment from the Moe Lane blog in the other thread but it’s very good, so I’ll post it again here. The writer is “Bort” and he looked at the Ohio absentee spreadsheet link on Moe Lane’s blog.

“I don’t need polls or absentee ballot numbers to tell me that Romney will win Ohio. First, Obama won the state in 2008 by 4.5%. Does anybody actually think that Obama is in better shape today than 4 years ago? Hell no. Next, three states that border Ohio–Indiana, Kentucky, and W. Va.–have completely turned against Obama. 42% of W.Va. dems voted for a FELON over Obama; in Ky., 40% of dems voted “uncommitted” over Obama; and Obama’s campaign gave up on Indiana 2 years ago. Does anybody really believe that the Ohioans that live right across the border from these states are as enthused–let alone more enthused–for Obama this year? Hell no. Also, Obama is struggling in Western Pa., which borders Ohio as well. Next, Obama’s coal policies have ticked off Southeastern Ohio, which is Appalachia and coal country.

BTW, the most telling early absentee ballot count is in Warren County (Cincinnati suburb). Republicans have returned their absentee ballots in at a 5 to 1 clip over Democrats. This suggests that a huge Republican turnout is going to happen in this election, and a lot of Dems are going to stay home. Also, a higher turnout in Ohio benefits Republicans, b/c this means more whites will show up, and whites support Romney by 60/40.”


28 posted on 10/02/2012 11:48:58 AM PDT by plushaye (Election 2012 Prayer Force)
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To: sam_paine

In that case, we can come to an agreement.

You are correct, irrational exuberance is not warranted by a long shot. This are good numbers, but we’d need landslide numbers to be truly confident; currently, this doesn’t mean an Obama victory is impossible.

In earnestness, thank you for clarifying your stance and for the gentle reminder. We must fight.


29 posted on 10/02/2012 11:49:34 AM PDT by Cruising For Freedom (Don't be the proof that MSM PsyOps works.)
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To: Cruising For Freedom
I know my math pretty well. It’s my graduate degree and profession.

That's why engineers are allowed in the lab and the mathematicians are kept in their offices.

The theory is engrossing for the mathematician, but the application is irrelevant!

Lighten up, Francis.

30 posted on 10/02/2012 11:50:29 AM PDT by sam_paine (X .................................)
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To: Cruising For Freedom; LS
In earnestness, thank you for clarifying your stance and for the gentle reminder.

I'm still a wet blanket!

31 posted on 10/02/2012 11:52:18 AM PDT by sam_paine (X .................................)
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To: sam_paine
I'm still a wet blanket!

Wet blankets are good for sobering up and preventing us from prematurely dancing naked on the counter with lampshades on our heads ;)
32 posted on 10/02/2012 11:57:52 AM PDT by Cruising For Freedom (Don't be the proof that MSM PsyOps works.)
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To: Cruising For Freedom

You’re a good sport. Not many left!


33 posted on 10/02/2012 12:23:38 PM PDT by sam_paine (X .................................)
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To: sam_paine

But see, this is the wholly point: IF THESE NUMBERS HOLD UP-—AND AR REFLECTED IN FL, NC, NV, AND VA, then we are not talking about. Close lection at all. And if they ar so badly off from the polls here, ther is a very good chance that they in fact ar common everywhere. That’s not “extrapolation”, that’s logic and analysis.


34 posted on 10/02/2012 3:07:07 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

Poll Ping.


35 posted on 10/02/2012 5:44:59 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: Ravi

Good work, Ravi.

You, LS, and JetJaguar all deserve a free ObummerPhone.


36 posted on 10/02/2012 5:56:16 PM PDT by SharpRightTurn ( White, black, and red all over--America's affirmative action, metrosexual president.)
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To: sam_paine
There's enough. We need to stay skeptical and make sure we don't get cocky.

The Dems won't go quietly. They've got a killer instinct that the GOP seems to lack.

37 posted on 10/02/2012 6:49:09 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: 1010RD

Ha. That’s right.


38 posted on 10/02/2012 8:28:03 PM PDT by Ravi
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