Skip to comments.Check out this chart on Intrade
Posted on 10/02/2012 9:38:39 PM PDT by big bad easter bunny
I just noticed that little drop there.
Started before the video. Several polls have shown a tighter race, including in Florida.
Team 0bama stopped buying shares?
And I’ll just add, there is NO WAY POSSIBLE ‘investors’ have bought into failed security in Libya, Afghan soldiers shooting our troops, continued high unemployment, continued high gas, food, utility prices, blah blah blah.. One look at the timeline and my ‘DOES NOT COMPUTE’ alarm sounds loudly.
The Kenyan Commie : 73.8%
Not much of a dip... it will be interesting to see the wishy washy willy nilly public reaction after the debates.
73.8% for 0bama?? Looks like tax dollars buying shares!
In-trade isn’t as good as they make themselves out to be. From their own rules, “Settlement will be based on the outcome of the 2012 United States Presidential election, as reported by three independent and reliable media sources.”
So, when two media outlets call a race, the market is still open and you can sell your shares of the guy who lost. That’s how they have a 100% success rate in calling elections.
Re: “Little Drop”
When Obama-to-Win almost hit 80, that turned a lot of heads, including mine.
I suspect a lot of buyers started to show up around 75.
Translation, before the drop...
Bet $2.00 on Romney.
Win $10.00 if Romney wins.
Intrade is the stupid money that bets according to what they read/hear on the main stream media. They do not have some secret “insider info”, like a VEGA odds-maker who talked with the training coach and knows who will be eligible for Sunday’s game.
Intrade is based out of Ireland. There are many hoops to jump through for Americans to participate and it may not even be legal (online gambling). I believe most participants are foreigners who only get their info from US media polls,i.e. bogus.
Most of the so-called “markets” are very thinly traded so a large buy/sell has abnormal influence. I wouldn’t use Intrade as a barometer of anything.
The founder and CEO of Intrade placed a poor bet on Mount Everest.
How long did you think he would stay at 80%? It was obviously a short term thing...Way too soon for the market to be skewed that far one way or the other. wait til election night and 50% of the precincts are reporting their results. Then an 80% market one way or the other will make sense.
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