Posted on 10/03/2012 7:15:08 AM PDT by Ravi
above.
(Excerpt) Read more at freerepublic.com ...
IA (ballot requestst): Dems-150,230 (54.8%); Repubs-64,790 (23.6); That is an 85,500 difference today and yesterday it was a 93,000 difference. We are catching up fairly quickly here. Dems percentage has decreased from over 60% in the past two days and republican percentage has increased quickly over the past two days. 2008 (IA-50% early voters were dems; 28% were repubs). 2010 (IA-44% early voters were dems; 38% were repubs).
NC: 108,000 ballot requests (repubs are 53.0% and dems 26.3%); no real changes
OH: Everyone knows what's going on here. Just check the stats.
I appreciate your insights. Keep up the good work-especially if it bodes well for us.
Please continue to post your updates.
Some people on FR are adults, and can handle bad news as well as the good.
I for one am confident we will win and “We The People” will overthrow the muslim dictator in the end...one way or another.
The main link doesn’t work.
Neither does the excerpt link.
Learn how to post.
Great to see the updates - especially when they are going in the RIGHT direction. :-)
Would be good if you just put in a link to the OH spread sheet with your updates as well. Not always at hand, and some people may not (still) be aware of it.
Cheers,
SB
But the real story? In Dayton, there were a grand total of . . . . 25 (!!!) early voters.
If they don't do much, much better than that in early voting, I'm going to have to revise my 4% Romney win prediction of OH to about 10.
I don't. Been busy this week. What's the latest.
Here you go, your nastiness.
But this good, working link has been posted daily on FR for almost two weeks.
“your nastiness” LOL
anything on Virginia??
Here's a working link to your spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0
This is another good skill to learn, along with how to embed images in your posting.
The cutoff for absentee requests is soon (have to find out when) but the Rs are pretty close to already winning this part of the battle, convincingly.
The Ohio spreadsheet information on Absentee ballots . These are updating as the information comes in. You have to wait a minute for it to come up so be patient.
I know. I really am html challenged. I can write a book in six months, but can’t figure out how to imbed images. Need to practice.
Powder..patch..ball FIRE!
Not only do I appreciate your hard work I have been lax in thanking you for it!
Start a Ping list and put me on it. I use this resource daily when arguing with partisan D’s.
Sorry. that’s true. I’ll work on that.
I appreciate these posts, too..
If you don’t like it, don’t read it...
And some days, I don’t...
Is there a different schedule?
We might can find absentee voting stats in VA but we don’t have early voting or registration by party.
Good soil. :-)
MSNBC was LEADING with Romney rumored to be pulling out of Ohio.
Talk about goebling the mind of the voter.
Why in the world do we allow early voting? Allowing people to vote almost a month prior to election day is crazziness. So much can happen in a month. Sorry, but I liked it better in the old days. We voted on election day... period.
My concern with The Left is more about the "Late Voting", where car trunks and truckloads of "Found Ballots" show up, whenever the (R) is winning, or it's too close to call.
How many more Elections will be stolen in this way, ESPECIALLY in Swing States?
please continue the posts, i enjoy them.
What is the latest update in OH?
The polls there look so terrible, but I know most of them are waaaaaaay overweighted with Dems and waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay underweighted with Reps in their samples.
Click on the red words in my post # 14 to see.....
Keep up the good work!
amazing. instead of a thank you and an oh by the way the link’s not working that’s what you come up with? Learn how to post?
Learn how to be gracious and not rude.
For embedding links in your posting, this is a really simple format to use:
<a href=http://www.example.com/>http://www.example.com/</a>
The first full URL is the link to the whatever you are embedding. You can put whatever you want where the second URL is. I usually just put the full URL there so that people know where it is pointing.
They can just click on the link, and don't have to copy/paste.
I’ll just give you one county as an eg. Cuyahoga. Outvoted by 260,000 in 08. 460,000 to 200,000. Currently at about a 57,000 spread in ballot requests (Dems have requested 98,807 ballots, repubs 42,232 ballots) thus far. The spread was 85,000 in 2008 just for absentee ballots. If this ratio is repeated across counties in OH, then you can add up the numbers and kinda figure where we might end up. For Cuyahoga, I think the final difference between Obama and Romney will be in the 150,000 range (based on my turnout assumptions, indies splitting, all dems obama and all repubs romney) whereas it was 260,000 in 08. If that is 110,000 less vote margin for Obama from Cuyahoga, then rest of the state should be able to make that up. Margin for McCain and Obama was about 260,000 overall for the whole state. It would only take 75,000 voters to change their minds and we see that happening on the spreadsheet every day.
Some idiot on CNBC this morning suggested that Mitt had a week to figure if he should reallocate advertising dollars away from Ohio.
Thanks checked it out.
Bad news: More Dems participating in early voting than Reps.
Good news: The difference between the two parties seems MUCH closer than it was in 2008.
What is your read on these numbers?
Thanks so much. Deeply appreciate it. So Dem turnout so far appears to be down from four years ago in their urban strongholds.
I am from Cleveland originally. The Dems usually pile up a huge a margin in Cuyahoga and some of the surrounding counties including Lorain and Summit. GOP has to make up for this with a huge turnout downstate and in the rural areas. Columbus used to be Republican, now Democrat in most elections.
Yep, that’s the short version.
We know there’s an enthusiasm gap. Anecdotally we know of people who will stay home who are disillusioned with Hopeychange.
Question to the crystal ballers: Do we really have a good handle on the Republican apathy segment?
When we are on the most rightwing site which is run by a gentleman who threatened to zot anyone who actively campaigned for the GOP candidate, shouldn’t we assume that the “sit home and teach the GOPe a lesson” faction is even more vehement than those disillusioned by unicorns and skittles?
Not me. Don’t know anyone else around me who feels that way either.
Please continue to post these updates. The lamestream media is trying to get us all “depressed” and these updates keep my spirits high!
Even if they weren’t uplifting, I’d still rather KNOW the truth.
I don’t watch any news anymore, including Fox. I get all my info here at FR and my radio talk shows (which of course plays the lamestream media talking points....irks the heck out of me)!
Ok. So you're predicting some large fraction of turnout less for Dems and 100% for R's?
not remotely. i have said repeatedly that i know NOT ONE conservative in my real life (and i have friends and family across the country) who will sit home rather than vote for Romney. The % of unappeasable purist, seen only on FR in my experience, is tiny.
and none of the people i know was ever a mittbot; they are just intent that the marxist be voted out.
Learn how not to be such a nasty a$$.
100% turnout? that would be unprecedented wouldn’t it? no, my point is that the 2010 elections and the WI recall showed there’s an angry horde of conservatives out there who want to be heard (more recently the chickfila support day). we have seen nothing to indicate any diminution in that sentiment.
For some of us, early voting means we can actually vote without requesting an absentee ballot.
I think that a month is overkill. But, a couple of weeks is really useful. It means that I can vote when I'm home on the weekend, and not have to worry about being out-of-town on business during election day.
In Texas, early voting (in person, not absentee) starts on 2012-10-22.
[amazing. instead of a thank you and an oh by the way the link’s not working that’s what you come up with? Learn how to post?
Learn how to be gracious and not rude.]
Exactly!
If I remember correctly, the owner reversed that one.
^5 KG
You should also take note that in 2008, 2010 the registered voters in the state were at 8.0 million there has been a loss between 2011 and 2012 of 490,000 registered voters on the Ohio rolls, or it now stands at 7.51 million in the state.......44% of that was eliminated from Cleveland (Cuyahoga County) alone and 350,000 of those now removed registered voters coming from Cuyahoga (Cleveland), Franklin (Columbus), and Hamilton (Cincinnati) areas combined.
On to your point about the Bad news: More Dems may be participating in early voting but the numbers are still down from 2008 on everything including Absentee ballot requests but enthusiasm is with the Republicans to go vote this time and Romney has a huge ground game going in Ohio to knock on doors and make phone calls. They are way ahead of McCains total numbers from 2008 already in the state.
Also note that Ohio lost 2 electoral votes during the census according to an article I read shortly after the release of those numbers. According to the information each electoral vote was representative of approximately 767,000 people. Take that number times 2 and you get approximately 1.5 million people who have left the state of Ohio since the 2000 census.......with 490,000 registered voters now removed from the voter rolls as well....AND......
I can tell you that that number is likely to go up, because one day after the article for the 490,000 removed voters came out, my spouse and I sent in our "Cancellation of our Registration to vote in the State of Ohio". We lived one county below Cleveland.
Hope this helps to know.......
What does the ground game look like in your county? I.E. yard signs, bumperstickers, volunteer activity, door to door operations, phone banking etc? According to the polls (which I don’t trust because of all of the overweighting in favor of the Dems) Ohio is already in Obama’s column. They even have it colored blue in the realclearpolitics map.
For what it’s worth, I know live in L.A. Although few doubt that Obama will lose CA, I can tell you one thing for certain. I am on the freeways every day. Four years ago it seemed just about every other car had an Obama bumpersticker on it. This year you have to actually look for them. Ditto with the yard signs, you hardly see any of them, and I live in a very heavily Dem area. You seen no enthusiasm whatsoever...zip....nada.... for Obama here in the deepest of deep blue states. Not saying Obama will lose CA. I am saying NO NOTICEABLE ENTHUSIAM NOTHING! compared to four years ago.
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