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Jay Cost: This Race Has Just Begun
Weekly Standard ^ | 10/03/2012 | Jay Cost

Posted on 10/03/2012 10:05:26 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

The most recent RealClearPolitics average of the national polls shows President Obama holding a 3.3 point lead over Mitt Romney, 49.1 to 45.1. Additionally, his net job approval rating is now back to about even, 48.8 approve to 48.5 disapprove.

It's important not to buy the left wing spin that this race is over: it's not even close to being over. Here's why.

First, October is the month of voter decision making. A lot of the polls that show a narrow Obama lead are actually “pushing” undecided voters to make a decision. This will make for interesting swing in the polls as these people move back and forth, but it nevertheless misrepresents the level of uncertainty that remains in the electorate.

Indeed, consider this chart, taken from exit poll data, on the timeline of voter decision-making.

Granted, most of those “undecided” voters are actually partisans (albeit, soft ones) who will wait until this month until going for the candidate that we always knew they would back. But, nevertheless, the pure swing vote is most certainly included in the share of the electorate that will make up its mind from this point forward.

Second, Team Romney has been raising money hand over fist – as we all know – but have largely held off in spending it. So has the broader GOP constellation – the Romney campaign, the RNC, and the super PACs. To appreciate that point, consider the following chart of total advertising spending from the GOP through mid-August.


(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; obama; polls; romney

1 posted on 10/03/2012 10:05:32 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind


2 posted on 10/03/2012 10:06:32 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: SeekAndFind

Which is exactly why the corrupt MSM are trying to set up the narrative that Obama is inevitable. Because the undecideds are those who breal late and more than likely just want to vote for who they think is goingto win.

The 2008 race was all about the American Idol contest.


3 posted on 10/03/2012 10:30:00 AM PDT by Obadiah (The corrupt MSM is the enemy of the American people.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Romney is about to unleash the dogs of hell on Obama. All the pantswetters around here watch and learn. The shelling has begun with the Obama speech videos and that’s nothing compared to what is gonna hit the Kenyan day after day this month


4 posted on 10/03/2012 10:56:39 AM PDT by over3Owithabrain
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To: over3Owithabrain

“Romney is about to unleash the dogs of hell on Obama. “

With all due respects, and I hope you are right about this, but we have been hearing about the Romney shock and awe since August. If he has the dogs, unleash them already and stop talking about it.


5 posted on 10/03/2012 11:04:20 AM PDT by AC86UT89
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To: AC86UT89

Would have been stupid to do it in August. Makes sense down the stretch though. Watch and learn how a campaign is won


6 posted on 10/03/2012 11:10:52 AM PDT by over3Owithabrain
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