The most recent RealClearPolitics average of the national polls shows President Obama holding a 3.3 point lead over Mitt Romney, 49.1 to 45.1. Additionally, his net job approval rating is now back to about even, 48.8 approve to 48.5 disapprove.
It's important not to buy the left wing spin that this race is over: it's not even close to being over. Here's why.
First, October is the month of voter decision making. A lot of the polls that show a narrow Obama lead are actually “pushing” undecided voters to make a decision. This will make for interesting swing in the polls as these people move back and forth, but it nevertheless misrepresents the level of uncertainty that remains in the electorate.
Indeed, consider this chart, taken from exit poll data, on the timeline of voter decision-making.
Granted, most of those “undecided” voters are actually partisans (albeit, soft ones) who will wait until this month until going for the candidate that we always knew they would back. But, nevertheless, the pure swing vote is most certainly included in the share of the electorate that will make up its mind from this point forward.
Second, Team Romney has been raising money hand over fist – as we all know – but have largely held off in spending it. So has the broader GOP constellation – the Romney campaign, the RNC, and the super PACs. To appreciate that point, consider the following chart of total advertising spending from the GOP through mid-August.
