Skip to comments.CU-Boulder prof's updated forecast still gives win to Mitt Romney
Posted on 10/04/2012 12:54:11 PM PDT by Second Amendment First
With the presidential election a little more than a month away, political science professors from the University of Colorado have updated their election forecast with more current economic conditions and are standing by their prediction that Mitt Romney will win.
The professors -- Kenneth Bickers of CU's Boulder campus and Michael Berry of CU's Denver campus -- project that Romney will earn 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes.
President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes, which is down five from the initial prediction that the professors announced on Aug. 22.
We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead, Bickers said in a prepared statement. Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.
The model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and, they say, it is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. To make their predictions, the professors comb economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
The professors' model includes state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in income.
The new analysis includes unemployment rates from August rather than May and changes in per capita income from the end of June rather than March. This is the last update they'll release before the election.
The U.S. Department of Labor's jobs report will be released Friday.
The professors have identified 13 battleground states and the only one to change in the update was New Mexico, which they now predict as a narrow victory for Romney.
The model predicts that Romney will carry Colorado, with 53.3 percent of the vote.
It must pain them terribly to say it.
God willing, let’s make it happen.
One point of disagreement — i don’t see any way Romney wins New Mexico...but hey, we don’t need it anyway.
And what is the track record of this so-called model, may I ask?
100% accuracy going back to 1980.
Agreed. They (Dems) will either win NM decisively or steal it, 2000 style.
Too much self loathing going on in that state for some reason.
They predict that Romney will win ME-2.
Analysis That Hasn’t Missed Since 1980 Predicts Romney Will Win Big
August 23, 2012
RUSH: “A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every US president since 1980,” they’ve never missed, “forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney,” and he will win 320 electoral votes. It’s a University of Colorado analysis. It’s not a poll. It’s an “analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every US president since 1980,” and they haven’t missed.
“The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors. “’Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,’ said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.
“According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9% of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1%, when considering only the two major political parties.” Now, that doesn’t factor a third party or minuscule write-ins. They just look at the two primary candidates.
“’For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,’ said Berry. ‘The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office.’” I don’t know where he gets that, but regardless, this guy says: “What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former [in relative terms], the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term.
Looks to me like they have Obamugabe getting 50.93% of the New Mexico vote. So where do you disagree??
269 would be adequate (assuming we take the House),330 would be excellent....an irrefutable repudiation of this nation’s first Community Organizer In Chief.
You wouldn't be referring to
Goode, Johnson and Stein will get their 1-2% of the vote. If you normalize the polls the 52.5-46.6 scenario looks to be accurate.
Luckily Johnson has taken a lot of Obama voters as well, so that should be a wash. Goode could hurt us though.
After yesterday's debate, that number might be end up being higher.
Spanish Company Will Count American Votes Overseas In November
isn’t that a Soros owned company?
The map would look as follows under this projection: