Posted on 10/04/2012 4:43:25 PM PDT by oneprolifewoman
The FiveThirtyEight forecast had Mr. Obama gaining slightly on Wednesday, estimating that he had a 86.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College on Nov. 6 — up from 84.7 percent in Tuesday’s forecast.
This came despite the fact that it appeared there actually had been a modest shift back toward Mitt Romney in the polls even before the debate. In our “now-cast” — an estimate of what would happen if an election were held immediately — Mr. Obama’s projected margin of victory in the national popular vote had fallen by about one percentage point between Sunday and Wednesday.
Our Nov. 6 forecast, however, had already anticipated some decline for Mr. Obama, and so has been less sensitive to the shift.
In addition, there is a particular Electoral College outlook that is becoming problematic for Mr. Romney. As of Wednesday, our Nov. 6 forecast had Mr. Obama winning the popular vote by 4.1 percentage points. However, his advantage was larger than that — at least 4.9 percentage points, in 22 states (and the District of Columbia) — totaling 275 electoral votes:
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...
Nate Silver is a hack.
Nate Silver is a Daily Kos libtard. He’s probably trying to cheer up his comrades after Obama got his ass handed to him.
Ah, Nate Silver—the underbelly of the leftist journalistas.
It just doesn’t get more irrelevant than this guy’s rantings.
FUNS. We’re not demoralized and we don’t believe any of your $#!t.
It’ll soon be known that Obama has Electoral Dysfunction.
Fine, then battle uphill.
Only way to take a hill in a battle is to bomb and shell the hell out of the summit while you keep moving troops up the hill.
Silver is a homosexual activist. Pretty clear his personal politics are trumping his intellectual honest.
Problem for Nate is he cherry picks which polls he wants to believe and which he discounts.
Nate Silver won’t even be a name after this election. He’ll have lost all credibility.
As soon as I clicked on this article I knew right away it was bull. He has Ohio and Wisconsin blue. Obama’s largest super pac pulled out of Wisconsin today. And Florida.
Every poll watcher on fr knows Ohio is Romney’s.
I think Romney gives us a chance to turn things around. Not much of a chance, but it's our only option right now. If Hussein wins, the path of dependence and debt this nation is on will accelerate and lead to economic ruin. And yes, the result of economic implosion will probably be some form of domestic strife.
Silver is such a child. He STILL hasn’t figured out the data from the absentee OH voting, which disproves his entire polling scam.
See the article in the Washington Examiner about our OH early/absentee numbers that we’ve been following? Totally disproves Silver”s little poll numbers.
Reminds me of another ny times employee who said, how did Nixon win I didnt know anyone who voted for him
“As soon as I clicked on this article I knew right away it was bull. He has Ohio and Wisconsin blue. Obama’s largest super pac pulled out of Wisconsin today. And Florida.
Every poll watcher on fr knows Ohio is Romney’s.”
Rasmussen:
Wisconsin Obama, 49%; Romney, 46%
Ohio: Obama, 47%; Romney, 46%..
Source:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard
Romney is close behind in both of the above states, but he’s still behind.
It’s not over yet. More work to do....
Don’t let the obama camp tell you where this election is.
LLS
This Nate Silver stuff is fake. Go check out the offshore odds, lots of good stuff there.
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