Skip to comments.Karl Rove: Can We Believe the Presidential Polls?
Posted on 10/04/2012 9:21:41 PM PDT by Senator Goldwater
In the past 30 days, there were 91 national polls (including each Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking survey). Mr. Obama was at or above the magic number of 50% in just 20. His average was 47.9%. Mr. Romney's was 45.5%.
There were 40 national polls over the same period in 2004. President George W. Bush was 50% or higher in 18. His average was 49%; Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry was at 43.8%. An Oct. 4, 2004, story in the New York Times declared the Bush/Kerry race "a dead heat" and asked "whether Mr. Bush can regain the advantage."
Mr. Bush was hitting the vital 50% mark in almost half the polls (unlike Mr. Obama) and had a lead over Mr. Kerry twice as large as the one Mr. Obama now holds over Mr. Romney. So why was the 2004 race "a dead heat" while many commentators today say Mr. Obama is the clear favorite?
The reality is that 2012 is a horse race and will remain so. An incumbent below 50% is in grave danger. On Election Day he'll usually receive less than his final poll number. That's because his detractors are more likely to turn out, and undecideds are more resistant to voting for him.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
On Aug. 2, radio talk-show host Hugh Hewitt asked Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University polling organizationwhich runs the CBS/NYT battleground state polls, including last week's Florida pollif he expected a Democratic advantage in the Sunshine State three times what it was last time. Mr. Brown responded that "I think it is probably unlikely," but defended his polling organization's record.
It’s over. The only remaining question is, How much?
It’s going to be a landslide of biblical proportions.
Imagine how dispirited the kool-aid drinkers are. They’re going to stay home.
Poll ping. Some folks are waking up.
I am really starting to believe this...in 2008 I kept hoping for McCain to somehow do better and win the election on election day. I was never confident, I kept holding out hope for a “magic bullet” to be played in the last days. It never happened..I was never confident only hoping..now I am confident and really feel much better about Romney than I ever felt about McCain. I believe we are watching Reagan coming up from behind and taking the country...the same feeling I had back in 1980.
I share your confidence and optimism. The race is Romney's to lose. And he won't.
The economy will begin its turn around November 6, barring a war in the Mid East.
Where we need to watch Romney is on the social issues. He was terrible, here in MA, on homosexual "marriage," and other social issues. We have to be very wary of his judicial appointments.
I’d be more weary of the Obamunist placing even one more justice on the high court.
This is such a critical election.
Poll ping. Some folks are waking up.
yep. including Rove!
...a month ago, he was all discouraging,
and accepted the polls.
even while some of us, already realized they were rigged,
and it’s going to be a landslide defeat for Obama
(and that was before the Debate!)
McCain’s silver bullet was Palin. Tha is it.
He was clueless otherwise.
He NEVER understood joe the plumber.
He NEVER understood WHY Palin was so well recieved
We do know his crowds were the smallest of the four in 2008.
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