Posted on 10/05/2012 5:59:21 AM PDT by xzins
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Summary table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted [Numbers in thousands]
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| Category | Sept. 2011 |
July 2012 |
Aug. 2012 |
Sept. 2012 |
Change from: Aug. 2012- Sept. 2012 |
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Employment status |
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Civilian noninstitutional population |
240,071 | 243,354 | 243,566 | 243,772 | 206 |
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Civilian labor force |
154,004 | 155,013 | 154,645 | 155,063 | 418 |
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Participation rate |
64.1 | 63.7 | 63.5 | 63.6 | 0.1 |
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Employed |
140,107 | 142,220 | 142,101 | 142,974 | 873 |
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Employment-population ratio |
58.4 | 58.4 | 58.3 | 58.7 | 0.4 |
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Unemployed |
13,897 | 12,794 | 12,544 | 12,088 | -456 |
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Unemployment rate |
9.0 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 7.8 | -0.3 |
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Not in labor force |
86,067 | 88,340 | 88,921 | 88,710 | -211 |
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Unemployment rates |
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Total, 16 years and over |
9.0 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 7.8 | -0.3 |
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Adult men (20 years and over) |
8.7 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.3 | -0.3 |
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Adult women (20 years and over) |
8.1 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 7.0 | -0.3 |
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Teenagers (16 to 19 years) |
24.5 | 23.8 | 24.6 | 23.7 | -0.9 |
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White |
7.9 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 7.0 | -0.2 |
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Black or African American |
15.9 | 14.1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | -0.7 |
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Asian (not seasonally adjusted) |
7.8 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 4.8 | - |
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Hispanic or Latino ethnicity |
11.3 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 9.9 | -0.3 |
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Total, 25 years and over |
7.7 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.6 | -0.2 |
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Less than a high school diploma |
13.9 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 11.3 | -0.7 |
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High school graduates, no college |
9.6 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 8.7 | -0.1 |
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Some college or associate degree |
8.4 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 6.5 | -0.1 |
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Bachelor's degree and higher |
4.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 0.0 |
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Reason for unemployment |
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Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs |
8,028 | 7,123 | 7,003 | 6,535 | -468 |
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Job leavers |
972 | 878 | 942 | 957 | 15 |
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Reentrants |
3,484 | 3,380 | 3,318 | 3,306 | -12 |
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New entrants |
1,323 | 1,311 | 1,277 | 1,247 | -30 |
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Duration of unemployment |
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Less than 5 weeks |
2,743 | 2,711 | 2,844 | 2,542 | -302 |
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5 to 14 weeks |
2,902 | 3,092 | 2,868 | 2,826 | -42 |
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15 to 26 weeks |
2,029 | 1,760 | 1,845 | 1,860 | 15 |
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27 weeks and over |
6,197 | 5,185 | 5,033 | 4,844 | -189 |
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Employed persons at work part time |
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Part time for economic reasons |
9,270 | 8,246 | 8,031 | 8,613 | 582 |
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Slack work or business conditions |
5,900 | 5,342 | 5,217 | 5,523 | 306 |
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Could only find part-time work |
2,844 | 2,576 | 2,507 | 2,572 | 65 |
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Part time for noneconomic reasons |
18,329 | 18,866 | 18,996 | 18,736 | -260 |
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Persons not in the labor force (not seasonally adjusted) |
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Marginally attached to the labor force |
2,511 | 2,529 | 2,561 | 2,517 | - |
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Discouraged workers |
1,037 | 852 | 844 | 802 | - |
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- Over-the-month changes are not displayed for not seasonally adjusted data. |
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Just in time for the election.
These numbers are for all us market watchers and political wonks. Most people couldn’t tell you what the unemployment rate is or even who the vice president is [lucky bastards]. What they can tell you is if THEY have a job. Weather their family members or neighbors have jobs. Weather their home is worth more than it was four years ago. Weather they have more money in their pockets at the end of the month. How they relate those things to voting on Nov. 6... we’ll see. In the meantime, they can spin “the numbers” all they want... left and right. People know what they know.
Holiday hiring beginning? Where?
We knew the spin would come this month.
Part time all over.
In fact, Meijers announced yesterday that they are tripling their part-time hiring this month due to holidays.
Odd that.
Romney can counter with wanting to get people real, full-time, good paying jobs rather than have people work 2 part time jobs to make ends meet. He can talk about how companies are hiring part timers because they can’t afford obamacare for full time workers.
My home's BS detectors all blew.
Halloween costume stores, of course.
REUTERS: A survey of households from which the jobless rate is derived showed 873,000 job gains last month, the most since June 1983.
Listened to Charles Payne on the Fox Business Channel and he saying the numbers just don’t add up. They don’t add up to me, either. Adding only 114,000 and the rate goes DOWN to 7.8%. Makes no sense! Rush said it would happen!
“Most people couldn’t tell you what the unemployment rate is or even who the vice president is [lucky bastards].”
Blissful ignorance, it’s everywhere.
582,000 of that is part-time as seen on the tables.
I think the BLS has one too many letters in its abbreviation.
” - - - We knew the spin would come this month - - - “
Yup. After 4 years of Obama, the unemployment rate is finally below 8 %.
THE ROMNEY RALLY HAS BEGUN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Expect a few year-to-date, upward adjustments in the unemployment rate during December.
I honestly believe that if there was an increase in hiring, it was because employers are anticipating a Romney win and I think the GOP should spin these bogus numbers in that vein.
Construction is still lagging. I would know my husbands in the biz. I would be one happy lady if I knew he could find work 3 weeks out of the month. He took the plunge this week and incorporated so he could work as a contracter out of one of the big box stores. Its bad out there. The man has four employers (including himself now) and he still can’t get enough work.And its just not him the flooring companys he’s worked for in the past are barely keeping the carpet installer in a job. Total BS.
I had predicted this for last year in multiple posts. I said they would reduce the number in the job force to get the desired unemployment number under 8.0% . Several other sources had predicted increases of the rate to 8.2%
Do we think that an outfit who setup Operation Fast and Furious to justify domestic gun control and resulted in the DEATHS of hundred of Mexicans and our own border patrol agents would have ANY problem fudging a few numbers. I would have been SHOCKED if the number had been 8.0% or higher.
Big surge in part-time hiring, and the discouraged workers huge numbers stay the same.
Look at the employed/unemployed numbers. If you get the number of employed UP by part-time hires, and you get the number of unemployed DOWN by dropping huge amounts of discouraged workers from the numbers altogether, then you have a lower number of unemployed with a higher number of employed and your rate falls.
The Part time numbers jumpped, has that definition changed.
Yahoo Finance (not exactly a conservative news source) comments are running about 10 to 1 identifying these numbers as complete fraud!
But all of these numbers are based upon reporting from many sources and also many estimates, so it would be very easy for “mistakes” to be made that would be corrected later. That’s very common in all these economic stats. Adjustments to initial GDP data are routine.
And it seems fairly early for major part-time hiring.
We’ll see what sort of year-to-date adjustments are made during December.
Has the definition changed? Not that I know of, but I do know that it’s the time of year when that happens. Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas, and Halloween is bigger than it ever has been, so they start holiday hiring sooner than they used to.
I heard the Meijer part-time hiring announcement on the radio yesterday, and sure enough the company has announced it’s tripling it’s part-time hiring this year. Others are following suit.
Obama’s team knew that had to happen, so with discouraged workers lowering the number of official unemployed and the part-timers increasing the number of employed, that UE number had to fall.
Why anyone can conclude that a person not looking for a job for 4 weeks warrants dropping him from the unemplooyment rolls altogether makes sense is beyond me, but that’s what they do.
He’s not “unemployed”....he’s “discouraged”.
(And in the meantime he’s not got a job.)
See #24. It’s not early. Our stores have been transitioning to Halloween/Thanksgiving/Christmas for a month now. Plus, Halloween has now become one of the largest holidays sales seasons...just keeps growing.
So, you’ve got back-to-school, halloween, thanksgiving, Christmas just happening to fall at election time.
As long as part-time jobs get counted as jobs, then a fall election is always going to be influenced by this kind of stuff.
If Christmas hiring got unemployment down to 7.8 THIS year why didn’t that happen last year? Or the year before that?
Soviet economic reports are more truthful.
Thesse are doctored surveys, jimmied models, and outright fabrication.
Soviet economic reports are more truthful.
These are doctored surveys, jimmied models, and outright fabrication.
114K new payroll jobs.
800K+ new household jobs.
The delta between payroll and household is supposed to be explained by self-employment and several other edge-case factors.
If you don’t think those add up, you are absolutely correct.
They sure as heck didn’t triple them last month for ‘the holidays’!
See #15. Adjustments to all these economic stats are routine. We’ll see what happens in the first few weeks after election day.
So have I. Lots of us saw it coming almost a year out.
I wonder if those who would pay attention to it and quote it will be fooled (unless they want to go along with the charade to boost their candidate).
Here’s an update from Hotair.
Feel free to post it here in Free Republic if you feel it’s useful info
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/05/jobs-report-114k-jobs-added-jobless-rate-7-8/
Those charts tell me they have been systematically and intentionally dropping people from the numbers starting in about 2010.
Look at the strong tendency at the 80,000 mark to stay there, and then the huge launch up to almost 90,000.
Somehow someone has manipulated policy to go from taking nearly 10 years to increase 10,000 not in the labor force to where it took only 2 years to raise an additional 10,000 not in the labor force.
Something’s rotten in Denmark.
This is officially a dictatorship.
We must do everything to get this POS communist peice of dung Obama out of office. Our lives , our freedom depend on it.
Do what you can , donate, volunteer to call voters to swing states even if you are in a red state.
http://www.ajc.com/news/business/alorica-hiring-600-temps-in-kennesaw/nSTgC/
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution - “Alorica, a customer management provider with operations in Kennesaw, said it will hire 600 seasonal workers by the end of November.
The full-time and part-time openings are for customer service representatives who will handle incoming calls......”
This will be thrown out in the next debate. This needs to be properly framed. It can be done in one sentence:
The 7.8% is the figure used to calculate those on unemployment compensation, not those out of work.
Question is, what is the percentage out of work, including those no longer eligible for or receiving unemployment compensation?
This statement and question will throw fubo to the wolves, and render him speechless....
“With Christmas still more than two months away, stores already are hauling out the holiday decorations — and staffing up for the holiday rush.
Most retailers already are hiring seasonal workers, and the rest are expected to start hiring by the middle of the month. For job seekers, that means a wealth of opportunities and the possibility of permanent employment after the holidays.
“Most of the organizations we work with are already thinking about (holiday hiring) and gearing up,” said Steve Grow, president of HR Dimensions. “Starting to look for positions in October isn’t too early at all.”
Kohl’s, for example, currently is filling seasonal positions at its distribution centers, and its stores and credit centers will begin hiring this month. The Wisconsin-based retailer will add about 41 seasonal employees per store, said Vicki Shamion, senior vice president of public relations, social marketing and community relations.
“Most jobs are filled by mid-November,” she said............
All unemployment extensions expire around Jan 14th 2013.
I have a hunch those who have already expired are being counted as working (whether they got a job or not)
And perhaps those about to expire jump on a short-term, part time job (perhaps dressed as a pirate on the street corner near a Halloween Store).
Others probably got a part time job which opened only during the holiday season.
The USPS did a BIG hiring spree for the holidays as well. The did a mass mailing of post cards announcing that. But again, short term jobs that last until jan.
Macy’s plans to hire 80,000 seasonal workers for the holidays
http://www.examiner.com/article/macy-s-plans-to-hire-80-000-seasonal-workers-for-the-holidays
Update: Bloomberg’s Alex Kowalski has an explanation that covers most of the confusion: The household survey showed an 873,000 increase in employment, the biggest since June 1983, excluding the annual Census population adjustments. Some 582,000 Americans took part- time positions because of slack business conditions or those jobs were the only work they could find. Jeryl Bier points out another part of the explanation:
The numbers are fake.
see #36 plus markomalley’s charts at 25, I think.
And if you believe that...
Miscounting the expired unemployment extensions of January 2013 would probably be enough to tweak these numbers down to 7.8%.
However, EVERY Christmas Kohls and Macys and other retailers hire seasonal help.
IF people want to make the claim that seasonal retail work makes the difference this year in getting the number down to 7.8% then how do you explain why seasonal retail work did not bring the unemployment numbers down to 7.8% last year?
What I’m saying is that obviously since those Christmas jobs did not bring the unemployment figures down to 7.8% last year or the year before that then they can’t be the reason the unemployment number came down to 7.8% this year (election year) either.
I do not believe there are enough of these Christmas retail jobs to bring the numbers down from 8.2% last month to 7.8% this month.
Table A-1
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm
Civilian Labor force
Not Seasonally Adjusted
155,255 - 155,075 = -180,000
Now apply the magic of seasonal adjustment and
-180,000 ==> + 418.000
Participation rate
Not seasonally adjusted
63.7 - 63.6 = -0.1
Now apply the magic of seasonal adjustment and
-0.1 ==> +0.1
Are you asking if part-time work makes these numbers look a lot better than they should.
You bet I do.
That coupled with the “discouraged worker” sleight-of-hand are what’s being used to keep the UE rate far lower than it should be.
And, I’ll bet there’s a problem with holdback, lost numbers, and hidden numbers, too.
Check out the poll on the lower right section of this page:
people aren’t buying the numbers.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-jobless-rate-falls-7-123110416.html
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