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Employment Situation Summary Table A.Household data seasonally adjusted (Unemplymt falls to 7.8%)
Bureau of Labor Statistics ^ | 5 Oct 2012 | BLS

Posted on 10/05/2012 5:59:21 AM PDT by xzins

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To: An American In Dairyland
If Christmas hiring got unemployment down to 7.8 THIS year why didn’t that happen last year? Or the year before that?

All unemployment extensions expire around Jan 14th 2013.

I have a hunch those who have already expired are being counted as working (whether they got a job or not)

And perhaps those about to expire jump on a short-term, part time job (perhaps dressed as a pirate on the street corner near a Halloween Store).

Others probably got a part time job which opened only during the holiday season.

The USPS did a BIG hiring spree for the holidays as well. The did a mass mailing of post cards announcing that. But again, short term jobs that last until jan.

41 posted on 10/05/2012 6:48:50 AM PDT by tsowellfan
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To: xzins

Macy’s plans to hire 80,000 seasonal workers for the holidays

http://www.examiner.com/article/macy-s-plans-to-hire-80-000-seasonal-workers-for-the-holidays


42 posted on 10/05/2012 6:50:02 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: An American In Dairyland; 9YearLurker; tsowellfan
See tsowell's post at 35 and follow the link to:

Update: Bloomberg’s Alex Kowalski has an explanation that covers most of the confusion: The household survey showed an 873,000 increase in employment, the biggest since June 1983, excluding the annual Census population adjustments. Some 582,000 Americans took part- time positions because of slack business conditions or those jobs were the only work they could find. Jeryl Bier points out another part of the explanation:

43 posted on 10/05/2012 6:53:31 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: NamVet71MP

The numbers are fake.


44 posted on 10/05/2012 6:55:34 AM PDT by Democrat_media (China is destroying all our jobs and manufacturing ability. China makes everything.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

see #36 plus markomalley’s charts at 25, I think.


45 posted on 10/05/2012 6:58:03 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins

And if you believe that...


46 posted on 10/05/2012 7:18:55 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: tsowellfan

Miscounting the expired unemployment extensions of January 2013 would probably be enough to tweak these numbers down to 7.8%.

However, EVERY Christmas Kohls and Macys and other retailers hire seasonal help.

IF people want to make the claim that seasonal retail work makes the difference this year in getting the number down to 7.8% then how do you explain why seasonal retail work did not bring the unemployment numbers down to 7.8% last year?

What I’m saying is that obviously since those Christmas jobs did not bring the unemployment figures down to 7.8% last year or the year before that then they can’t be the reason the unemployment number came down to 7.8% this year (election year) either.

I do not believe there are enough of these Christmas retail jobs to bring the numbers down from 8.2% last month to 7.8% this month.


47 posted on 10/05/2012 7:18:58 AM PDT by An American In Dairyland
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To: Will88; All

Table A-1
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm
Civilian Labor force

Not Seasonally Adjusted
155,255 - 155,075 = -180,000

Now apply the magic of seasonal adjustment and
-180,000 ==> + 418.000

Participation rate
Not seasonally adjusted
63.7 - 63.6 = -0.1
Now apply the magic of seasonal adjustment and
-0.1 ==> +0.1


48 posted on 10/05/2012 7:21:13 AM PDT by khelus
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To: 9YearLurker

Are you asking if part-time work makes these numbers look a lot better than they should.

You bet I do.

That coupled with the “discouraged worker” sleight-of-hand are what’s being used to keep the UE rate far lower than it should be.

And, I’ll bet there’s a problem with holdback, lost numbers, and hidden numbers, too.


49 posted on 10/05/2012 7:22:32 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins

Check out the poll on the lower right section of this page:

people aren’t buying the numbers.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-jobless-rate-falls-7-123110416.html


50 posted on 10/05/2012 7:23:11 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: xzins

The number of people working part-time who want to work full-time didn’t surge like that last month—or any month.

They had to go back and majorly revise the two months before that even to ramp up to such a ridiculous number.

Look at this poll (lower right-hand corner), people aren’t buying it:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-jobless-rate-falls-7-123110416.html


51 posted on 10/05/2012 7:25:39 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: 9YearLurker; Cincinatus' Wife

Also, the part time number increased nearly 600,000 in one month, when the previous month they’d dropped 200,000.


52 posted on 10/05/2012 7:26:30 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: 9YearLurker

People should NOT be buying the numbers. Do you think I’m saying that they SHOULD be buying them? If so, then we are totally misreading each other.

I’m saying that they’re being manipulated.

They’re being manipulated by “discouraged workers” which artificially decrease the number of unemployed.

They’re also being manipulated by part-time workers which artificially increases the number of employed, and especially if it’s holiday related, and it’s something like a 10-20 hour a week job.

So, if I can say I have a hundred jobs instead of 90 jobs, then I look better. And, if I can say I have 15 unemployed, instead of 25 unemployed, then I look better.


53 posted on 10/05/2012 7:33:01 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins

What I’m saying is those part-time numbers are bogus—and nobody was hiring temporary holiday staff in September.


54 posted on 10/05/2012 7:36:21 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: An American In Dairyland
IF people want to make the claim that seasonal retail work makes the difference this year in getting the number down to 7.8% then how do you explain why seasonal retail work did not bring the unemployment numbers down to 7.8% last year?

Before I answer that with what I think could be possible I want to say that I too find this whole 7.8% to be suspicious. Secondly, I'm no economist. There are many on FR that would know much more about me on this stuff.

It would not have been able to drop as low as 7.8% last year because the unemployment rate was at least 8.3% last year. I'm not sure what the holiday hiring had brought it down to last year.

The reason why it went from 8.3 to 8.1 was because of expiring unemployment and/or people settling for part time jobs.

55 posted on 10/05/2012 7:39:21 AM PDT by tsowellfan
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To: 9YearLurker

I can accept cheating as an answer, so we’ll probably agree.

But, I also know that stores gear up for back-to-school, and start gearing up for halloween, christmas around that time, so I’m not going to say a lot of it isn’t legit.


56 posted on 10/05/2012 7:39:38 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: khelus

I don’t know if we have season adjustments because someone thinks they make things more clear, or because they’re just one more way for the gov’t to play games with the numbers. But I don’t think we should even have seasonal adjustments. For those who pay attention to these stats, seeing the seasonal fluctuations would actually help them understand how the economy works and what factors impact various stats throughout the year.

Next, maybe the gov’t will decide to seasonally adjust the temperature and general weather activity. Sort of smooth out the extremes for us.


57 posted on 10/05/2012 7:39:49 AM PDT by Will88
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To: Will88; All

First I forgot some zeroes and data:

Table A-1
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

Civilian Labor force
Not Seasonally Adjusted
155,255,000 - 155,075,000 = -180,000
Now apply the magic of seasonal adjustment
-180,000 becomes + 418.000

Participation rate
Not seasonally adjusted
63.7 - 63.6 = -0.1
Now apply the magic of seasonal adjustment
-0.1 becomes +0.1

Employed
Not Seasonally adjusted
143,333,000 - 140,107,000 = -3,226
Now apply the magic of seasonal adjustment
-3,226 becomes +873,000


58 posted on 10/05/2012 7:43:08 AM PDT by khelus
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To: khelus

“Part time because I had to” number went up 697,000.


59 posted on 10/05/2012 7:45:39 AM PDT by AppyPappy (If you really want to annoy someone, point out something obvious that they are trying hard to ignore)
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To: Will88
I don’t know if we have season adjustments because someone thinks they make things more clear, or because they’re just one more way for the gov’t to play games with the numbers. But I don’t think we should even have seasonal adjustments. For those who pay attention to these stats, seeing the seasonal fluctuations would actually help them understand how the economy works and what factors impact various stats throughout the year.

Next, maybe the gov’t will decide to seasonally adjust the temperature and general weather activity. Sort of smooth out the extremes for us.


Good observation and good point about the weather.

IMHO seasonal adjustment is just another tool that can be used to 'enhance' the stats.
60 posted on 10/05/2012 7:45:49 AM PDT by khelus
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