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Employment Situation Summary Table A.Household data seasonally adjusted (Unemplymt falls to 7.8%)
Bureau of Labor Statistics ^ | 5 Oct 2012 | BLS

Posted on 10/05/2012 5:59:21 AM PDT by xzins

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To: xzins

The number of people working part-time who want to work full-time didn’t surge like that last month—or any month.

They had to go back and majorly revise the two months before that even to ramp up to such a ridiculous number.

Look at this poll (lower right-hand corner), people aren’t buying it:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-jobless-rate-falls-7-123110416.html


51 posted on 10/05/2012 7:25:39 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: 9YearLurker; Cincinatus' Wife

Also, the part time number increased nearly 600,000 in one month, when the previous month they’d dropped 200,000.


52 posted on 10/05/2012 7:26:30 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: 9YearLurker

People should NOT be buying the numbers. Do you think I’m saying that they SHOULD be buying them? If so, then we are totally misreading each other.

I’m saying that they’re being manipulated.

They’re being manipulated by “discouraged workers” which artificially decrease the number of unemployed.

They’re also being manipulated by part-time workers which artificially increases the number of employed, and especially if it’s holiday related, and it’s something like a 10-20 hour a week job.

So, if I can say I have a hundred jobs instead of 90 jobs, then I look better. And, if I can say I have 15 unemployed, instead of 25 unemployed, then I look better.


53 posted on 10/05/2012 7:33:01 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins

What I’m saying is those part-time numbers are bogus—and nobody was hiring temporary holiday staff in September.


54 posted on 10/05/2012 7:36:21 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: An American In Dairyland
IF people want to make the claim that seasonal retail work makes the difference this year in getting the number down to 7.8% then how do you explain why seasonal retail work did not bring the unemployment numbers down to 7.8% last year?

Before I answer that with what I think could be possible I want to say that I too find this whole 7.8% to be suspicious. Secondly, I'm no economist. There are many on FR that would know much more about me on this stuff.

It would not have been able to drop as low as 7.8% last year because the unemployment rate was at least 8.3% last year. I'm not sure what the holiday hiring had brought it down to last year.

The reason why it went from 8.3 to 8.1 was because of expiring unemployment and/or people settling for part time jobs.

55 posted on 10/05/2012 7:39:21 AM PDT by tsowellfan
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To: 9YearLurker

I can accept cheating as an answer, so we’ll probably agree.

But, I also know that stores gear up for back-to-school, and start gearing up for halloween, christmas around that time, so I’m not going to say a lot of it isn’t legit.


56 posted on 10/05/2012 7:39:38 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: khelus

I don’t know if we have season adjustments because someone thinks they make things more clear, or because they’re just one more way for the gov’t to play games with the numbers. But I don’t think we should even have seasonal adjustments. For those who pay attention to these stats, seeing the seasonal fluctuations would actually help them understand how the economy works and what factors impact various stats throughout the year.

Next, maybe the gov’t will decide to seasonally adjust the temperature and general weather activity. Sort of smooth out the extremes for us.


57 posted on 10/05/2012 7:39:49 AM PDT by Will88
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To: Will88; All

First I forgot some zeroes and data:

Table A-1
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

Civilian Labor force
Not Seasonally Adjusted
155,255,000 - 155,075,000 = -180,000
Now apply the magic of seasonal adjustment
-180,000 becomes + 418.000

Participation rate
Not seasonally adjusted
63.7 - 63.6 = -0.1
Now apply the magic of seasonal adjustment
-0.1 becomes +0.1

Employed
Not Seasonally adjusted
143,333,000 - 140,107,000 = -3,226
Now apply the magic of seasonal adjustment
-3,226 becomes +873,000


58 posted on 10/05/2012 7:43:08 AM PDT by khelus
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To: khelus

“Part time because I had to” number went up 697,000.


59 posted on 10/05/2012 7:45:39 AM PDT by AppyPappy (If you really want to annoy someone, point out something obvious that they are trying hard to ignore)
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To: Will88
I don’t know if we have season adjustments because someone thinks they make things more clear, or because they’re just one more way for the gov’t to play games with the numbers. But I don’t think we should even have seasonal adjustments. For those who pay attention to these stats, seeing the seasonal fluctuations would actually help them understand how the economy works and what factors impact various stats throughout the year.

Next, maybe the gov’t will decide to seasonally adjust the temperature and general weather activity. Sort of smooth out the extremes for us.


Good observation and good point about the weather.

IMHO seasonal adjustment is just another tool that can be used to 'enhance' the stats.
60 posted on 10/05/2012 7:45:49 AM PDT by khelus
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To: xzins
start gearing up for halloween, christmas around that time,

They definitely gear up for the Christmas shopping season, but I'm not so sure about the others. And there is also the planting/gardening season, the new fashion seasons, the school is out, vacation season, and increased construction during the warm months, etc..

Just going through WalMarts or Home Depot type stores there are several points, year-round, when they are making major changes in their stock and displays.

Somewhere in our economy, some major sector is just about always gearing up for their busy season.

61 posted on 10/05/2012 7:46:13 AM PDT by Will88
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To: khelus

Employed persons at work part time

Part time for economic reasons +582
Slack work or business conditions +306
Could only find part-time work +65
Part time for noneconomic reasons -260


62 posted on 10/05/2012 7:47:14 AM PDT by AppyPappy (If you really want to annoy someone, point out something obvious that they are trying hard to ignore)
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To: 9YearLurker

**people aren’t buying the numbers.**


The comments also reflect the poll numbers. People aren’t buying this BS.

POLL.
The unemployment rate fell to 7.8% in September. What’s your take-away?

It assures President Obama’s re-election (1709)
10%
It’s proof the economy is improving (3865)
22%
It’s temporary, the worst isn’t over (2014)
11%
I don’t trust the numbers (10117) - your vote
57%


63 posted on 10/05/2012 7:50:24 AM PDT by Arrowhead1952 ("It's better to vote for a Republican you don't know than wind up with a dim you don't like".)
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To: AppyPappy
“Part time because I had to” number went up 697,000.

Which means no bennies, no paid leave, and lower salary.



Disgusting!
64 posted on 10/05/2012 7:50:36 AM PDT by khelus
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To: AppyPappy

My guess is that most of these “new” jobs are Obama campaign jobs, like the SEIU members who being paid $11.00 an hour to follow Romney at his campaign stops and college students who are being paid to make phone calls.


65 posted on 10/05/2012 7:53:00 AM PDT by Eva (Obama and Hillary lied, Americans died.)
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To: AppyPappy
Employed persons at work part time

Part time for economic reasons +582
Slack work or business conditions +306
Could only find part-time work +65
Part time for noneconomic reasons -260


Thanks

Don't you wish the MSM would perform this kind of analysis?
66 posted on 10/05/2012 7:54:02 AM PDT by khelus
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To: khelus

Actually, it went up 953,000. The last number is irrelevant.


67 posted on 10/05/2012 8:06:33 AM PDT by AppyPappy (If you really want to annoy someone, point out something obvious that they are trying hard to ignore)
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To: Will88

In August there was a 200,000 drop in part-time.

In September there was a nearly 600,000 gain in part-time.

Somehow or other that gets explained. My sense is gearing up for holiday hiring. I’m open to other explanations.

But, it has to be explained one way or other. Those are the numbers on the chart.


68 posted on 10/05/2012 8:16:37 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: NamVet71MP

18,541 comments

on that topic,....that is hot alright!


69 posted on 10/05/2012 8:18:40 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Too hot for me to even get in and throw my usual number of fire bombs. It’s a hobby.


70 posted on 10/05/2012 8:31:41 AM PDT by NamVet71MP
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To: 1rudeboy

But what about the tens of thousands of students returning to school these past 45 days?


71 posted on 10/05/2012 9:00:52 AM PDT by Stand Watch Listen
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To: 1rudeboy

Holiday hiring has become. I’ve gotten calls and seen ‘now hiring’ seasonal signs.


72 posted on 10/05/2012 9:12:00 AM PDT by newzjunkey (Osama's dead... and so is our ambassador - Coulter.)
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To: xzins
But, it has to be explained one way or other. Those are the numbers on the chart.

Reporting errors, or unintentional or intentional computation errors in the Labor Department.

And with a 200,000 drop in August, then a 600,000 gain in September, that has the markings of some sort of error slopping over from one month to the next. An understatement in one month will lead to an overstatement in the month in which it is corrected.

And I'd think back-to-school hiring would take place in August since most all schools restart in August or early September. And Halloween does lead to some big, new displays of decorations, costumes and candy, but I'm not buying that Halloween leads to much new hiring.

We might not get an explanation since the gov't is unlikely to admit errors, especially intentional errors. And if there are logical explanations for such a flip/flop between August and September, the gov't should supply that explanation.

73 posted on 10/05/2012 9:22:21 AM PDT by Will88
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To: Will88; P-Marlowe

Look at this line in the above chart:

Employed
140,107 142,220 142,101 142,974 873

Somehow we gained 873,000 jobs from August to September with only 144,000 reported???!!!

You’d think they’d want to know where that nearly 900,000 job gain came from.

I heard some talking head on the news say that people who had said they were unemployed just decided they were employed.

These numbers are based on what people say????

If there’s any fudged numbers on this report, then that’s it...that 900,000 Jobs From NoWhere.


74 posted on 10/05/2012 10:11:38 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins

One more report on 11/2.


75 posted on 10/05/2012 12:12:31 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Take two Aspirin and call me in November - Obama for Hindmost.)
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To: 1rudeboy

Election hiring and yes, some holiday hiring has begun. Haven’t you noticed that Christmas decorations appeared in stores in September this year? The early holiday season that co-incided with back to school was especially encouraged by the Obama administration. I don’t remember where I read that, probably right here on FreeRepublic, back in August.


76 posted on 10/05/2012 1:34:04 PM PDT by Eva (Obama and Hillary lied, Americans died.)
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To: Mike Darancette

Those numbers will be fudged, too. They’ve got to be.

4 days is enough time for an ad blitz to blow bad job numbers out of the water.


77 posted on 10/05/2012 1:54:31 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins
If there’s any fudged numbers on this report, then that’s it...that 900,000 Jobs From NoWhere.

We are, as far as I can tell, looking at seasonally adjusted numbers. So, these aren't actual raw numbers from the months being compared. The more I think about the use of seasonally adjusted numbers, the more useless they seem.

78 posted on 10/05/2012 2:28:21 PM PDT by Will88
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To: khelus

Wow
: (


79 posted on 10/05/2012 3:37:57 PM PDT by 4Liberty (Some on our "Roads & Bridges" head to the beach. Others head to their offices, farms, libraries....)
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