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Boing! (3 Swing State Polls: Romney up in Ohio, VA and FL)
We Ask America ^ | 10/05/2012 | Staff

Posted on 10/05/2012 8:08:07 AM PDT by nhwingut

Few disagree that Mitt Romney won Wednesday night’s presidential debate. Even fewer would argue against the notion that Romney sorely needed that performance to put his campaign back on track. With the national polling averages hovering around three percent in Barack Obama’s favor, Romney’s inability to gain traction was resulting in a pundit-driven drum beat of inevitability.

Not so fast there, muchachos. Polling in key states has shown a widening gap, but in many states, the spreading numbers have been more meandering that directional. True, if it had continued that way the election could have gently slid into the point of no return for Romney, but they didn’t. There’s still time for this thing to get real interesting. Could Romney’s debate performance be the key that unlocks a surge?

To find out, we cranked up the blowers last night in Virginia, Ohio and Florida to ask the electorate who they would vote for if the election were held today. Here are those topline results along with the splits among Republican/Democrat/and Independent voters (self-described by participants):

Each of these automated polls had 1,200+ responses from likely voters. MoE 3%. Each was weighted to correct for over-/under-sampling among select demographics.

(Excerpt) Read more at weaskamerica.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: florida; ohio; polls; presidentialdebate; swingstates; virginia

1 posted on 10/05/2012 8:08:10 AM PDT by nhwingut
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To: nhwingut

Wait a minute!

We’re supposed to give Obama a mulligan, because he didn’t have a chance to adjust to the altitude in Denver. And, so that he has a chance to watch MSNBC and get advice from Chris Mathews, Rachel, Ed Schulz and the “Toure” dude.


2 posted on 10/05/2012 8:10:52 AM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: nhwingut

Careful. VA and FL probably oversampled Republicans for a change. Those percentages may be what actually turns out at the polls but they are skewed compared to whatever polls you might be comparing them to.


3 posted on 10/05/2012 8:13:34 AM PDT by OrangeHoof (Our economy won't heal until one particular black man is unemployed.)
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To: nhwingut

Just wait until Joe Biden gets finished bring sexy back to the democratic party next Thursday in the debate against Paul Ryan. /sarc


4 posted on 10/05/2012 8:25:34 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
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To: nhwingut

Until someone shows me a poll with sampling percentages based on 2010 turn-out I’m not listening.


5 posted on 10/05/2012 8:26:12 AM PDT by Arm_Bears (Re-distribute my work ethic, not my wealth.)
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To: Arm_Bears

What??? Are you skeptical of all these polls showing Obama ahead???? Do you really think that they would doctor these poll numbers, to create the impression that Obama is more popular than he really is????


6 posted on 10/05/2012 8:28:53 AM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: nhwingut
Just hung up on a pollster in NH...never heard of the outfit (kind of garbled, though...). Live person was direct..."who are you voting for in the presidential election?" Click.

No response = Obama voter.

7 posted on 10/05/2012 8:31:06 AM PDT by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: nhwingut

I read a couple good analyses suggesting that voter self-identification is fluid for swing voters, so when polls keep showing a lot of oversampling of Ds it may indeed mean that the D brand is doing better, and vice versa.

It’s entirely possible that after the debate, some small % of swing voters refer to themselves as R rather than D, similar to the inrease in support for Romney.


8 posted on 10/05/2012 8:32:32 AM PDT by edwinland
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To: nhwingut

Wait until Paul Ryan humiliates Zero’s right-hand-man Biden next week - I think we’ll see the polls shift even more towards Ryan-Romney.


9 posted on 10/05/2012 8:36:34 AM PDT by Psalm 73 ("Gentlemen, you can't fight in here - this is the War Room".)
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To: nhwingut

a huge number of viewers for the debate, incidentally:

http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/04/presidential-debate-drew-more-than-70-million-viewers/


10 posted on 10/05/2012 8:52:30 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: Dilbert San Diego
But thus sophisticated Asshat said the altitude caused Obama to drop a duece!...Who are we to believe?
11 posted on 10/05/2012 9:15:24 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: nhwingut

I’ve finally seen a couple of Obama yard signs in the western suburbs of Philly, but it’s mostly repub signs where I’ve been driving around.


12 posted on 10/05/2012 9:18:06 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (Charlie Daniels - Payback Time http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWwTJj_nosI)
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To: Psalm 73

13 posted on 10/05/2012 9:46:55 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: AngelesCrestHighway

5000 feet just isn’t enough altitude to matter.

We have several towns in California that are above 8000 feet, and nobody seems to have any difficulties in them.


14 posted on 10/05/2012 9:55:29 AM PDT by editor-surveyor (Freepers: Not as smart as I'd hoped they'd be)
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To: nhwingut

Can you post some of the details? Link won’t open for me.


15 posted on 10/05/2012 10:15:41 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: nhwingut
Impossible! Yahoo News just told me this on 9/26...

"With each recent poll, Ohio has begun to look less like a swing state and more like a road map back to the private sector for Mitt Romney."

16 posted on 10/05/2012 10:20:51 AM PDT by cincinnati65
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To: OrangeHoof; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; ...

We ask America Poll

OH - Party ID was D +4 (Dem 38, Rep 34, Ind 28).
FL - Party ID was R +5 (Dem 33, Rep 38, Ind 29)
VA - Party ID was R +2 (Dem 32, Rep 34, Ind 34).


17 posted on 10/05/2012 10:29:45 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg; All

now lets be honest with ourselves; is the +5 GOP in Florida a concern????


18 posted on 10/05/2012 10:33:35 AM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: OrangeHoof
Not when you add this poll on Florida and this poll on Virginia to the overall discussion here.

Click on the links above to see more.....

19 posted on 10/05/2012 10:38:26 AM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
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To: God luvs America

But Gallup said that party ID did not matter. It does pretty much match Ras D+3 survey.


20 posted on 10/05/2012 10:39:08 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: PapaBear3625

Montgomery Co?


21 posted on 10/05/2012 10:48:18 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg

Chester County, PA


22 posted on 10/05/2012 11:11:55 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (Charlie Daniels - Payback Time http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWwTJj_nosI)
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To: Perdogg

OH high on Dem side by at least 2, FL high on R side by 2.


23 posted on 10/05/2012 12:25:49 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Perdogg

Thanks for the ping!


24 posted on 10/05/2012 2:17:23 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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