Skip to comments.Impossible To Manipulate Labor Survey Data—Former BLS Head
Posted on 10/05/2012 8:59:30 AM PDT by listenhillary
Even if the U.S. government wanted to manipulate monthly jobs figures, it would be impossible to accomplish, said a former head of the U.S. governments labor statistics agency.
Accusations that the government had manipulated the latest employment report spread across Twitter and other forums Friday after the U.S. unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since President Barack Obamas inauguration. Among those questioning the better-than-expected report was former General Electric Chief Executive Jack Welch, who tweeted the suggestion that the unbelievable jobs numbers were fabricated to help Obamas electoral chances in next months presidential election.
But, Keith Hall, who served as Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2008 until 2012, said in an interview Friday that there is no way someone at the agency could change any of the data from its two monthly employment surveys. The significant improvement in the unemployment rate may reflect normal statistical errors in the sampling process, he said, but that has nothing to do with manipulation.
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.wsj.com ...
And the Hawaii birth certificate is authentic.
They’ve already said that they revised the numbers for July and August.
ANY data can be manipulated to acheive ANY desired effect. Just ask Al Gore or any of his hysterical harpies.
And the polls accurately reflect party ID.
The household survey is much smaller. When you look at something like labor force and employment levels, the uncertainty of those numbers is much larger, said Mr. Hall. Within two months, the household survey could show the unemployment rate eking back up.
So it's "impossible to manipulate" -- but probably just wrong????
Also, the survey takers are ALL Hilda Solis' employees, and as we know she is TOTALLY NON-PARTISAN!
Until we revise them.
If you can’t ‘fool’ with the numbers, you can certainly hire more govt sector employees. IMO this is what is happening.
Rush predicted this would happen months ago. If I recall correctly, he said that the Oct. report would drop below 8%, just in the for the election.
This is why Rush is numero uno.
The Household survey of new jobs had hovered around 140,000 for months, and suddenly jumped 800,000 in one month? Rick Santelli has said for months that the Regime would get below 8% just before the election.
With Obama, anything is possible.
“just in the for the election.”
just in time for the election.
If you believe this I have a really good buy for you on some oceanfront property here in Arizona.
This way the BLS can continue to use the same standard statistical methods that they alway have used but on more favorable raw data obtained through manipulation of the survey process.
Labor Secretary Hilda Solis was asked on CNBC about suspicions that the Obama administration might have skewed the jobs numbers to aid Obama’s re-election prospects.
“I’m insulted when I hear that because we have a very professional civil service,” Solis said. “I have the highest regard for our professionals that do the calculations at the (Bureau of Labor Statistics). They are trained economists.”
Were these numbers cooked?????
Household Survey: Unemployment fell from 6% to 5.8% and civilian employment increased by 440,000
Establishment Survey: Only 14,000 increase in non-farm employment
They are from Nov 2003 when Bush the Younger was President. These discrepancies happen.
That guy isn’t familiar with filthy Chicago politics. EVERYTHING can be distorted, perverted, manipulated and lied about. EVERYTHING! Even the tombstone marker voters are probably found jobs in September.
"The media's got the "Re-Elect Obama" playbook and they're follwing it step-by-step..."
Anyone who has taken statitics 101 knows how easy it is to manipulate them. “There are lies, damned lies and then there are statistics”
Every Rebublican and Conservative needs to call a presser to question these numbers. MAKE IT A MEDIA TALKING POINT. Challenge it and Question it! This BS can’t be allowed to go unchallenged.
Glad to hear the O.J. jurors found gainful employment.
Anything that includes a presentation of data in a statistical setting can be manipulated.
This man is lying.
Revisions due within two weeks.
But probably delayed beyond November 7th.
And coupled with the price of gasoline dropping from $3.80 a gallon to “only” $3.50 a gallon, why, the news is only good.
Keep in mind the term SWAG. (Scientific wild-(eyed) guess)
Yeah, impossible? Riiiight!
That’s a miricle! For the first time in human existance has a man-made system been developed that is perfect and impervious to human shenanigans! Hooray for the government for discovering this! /sarc
That's all you need to know.
Nearly 400,000 More Jobs Added Than First ThoughtSee, all those jobs were hiding under the couch all along.
Wall Street Journal ^ | September 27, 2012 | By Ben Casselman
Posted on Thursday, September 27, 2012 2:13:02 PM by Oldeconomybuyer
The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday released an early look at its annual benchmark revision of its payroll data. When the preliminary revisions become final early next year, the official data should show that 386,000 more Americans were working in March than previously believed. The private sector did even better, adding 453,000 jobs versus previous estimates. [snip]
And I suppose it would be impossible for a President to wage a war in Libya and implement amnesty for illegal aliens without consent from Congress, or unilaterally overturn Welfare Reform, or DOMA, or make illegal recess appoints, blah blah blah..
” . The significant improvement in the unemployment rate may reflect normal statistical errors in the sampling process, he said, but that has nothing to do with manipulation.”
The dems kept those jobs in the same closet in which the piles of uncounted ballots are stored.
statistical errors = manipulation
BS....they really do think we are stupid. Who in the world thinks you can suddenly find almost 900.000 “household survey jobs,’ with data that can’t be traced in the month of September...and most of them “part time”?
Only the brain dead welfare leaches and university Commies can’t figure out this scam. The people who have passed even rudimentary math know this can’t happen.
Yes it is.
I used to play golf with a PhD mathematician who had worked for BLS, and he said there was always a lot of pressure from the upper (political) levels to fudge the numbers.
Figures don’t lie, but liars figure!
In other words,
LIES, DAMN LIES, and STATISTICS.
Actually, this guy couldn't figure out how to fudge the numbers. So they found someone who could!
Keep digging ....... pal.
I will watch for weasel words that carefully do not say that they didn't do anything different, just that they didn't change anything about how they manipulated the data. In addition, perhaps they changed the locations where they made the phone calls to areas where people are more likely to start a home business if they lose their salaried job.
Cnbc is outright calling barrys administration liars, I have never heard that in all my years. After the horrendous debate this scandal if it does become one could be even worse for barry
Say that I am a caller to a household and my script asks: Are you a fulltime homemaker who cares for your children?...Voila! We have two more full time jobs filled right there...one as a daycare worker and one as a housekeeper. If they home school, add another one, “educator”, maybe cook. Ask another person if they attend to their elderly relative and call that a full time job too. If you walk your dog, then your are a “dog walker”. In Progressiveville, everything is possible. They use that famous Music Man “Think Method”.
On the other hand, they work for you.
Revisions of previously announced preliminary statistics reflect the collection of additional and better data. Statistic revisions are entirely justifiable, indeed critical for economists and investors.
But that does not mean we should never question government statistics. This is certainly true of data derived from the Household Survey. The Household Survey is a relatively small sample of a very large, geographically and demographically varied population. The sample always must be adjusted so that it does not vary from the national population in respect to age, sex, race, income, geography and education (and probably a dozen other variables) beyond a prescribed confidence interval.
Like opinion polls, the adjustment methods are fallible. And, like opinion polls, they can be manipulated.
In my opinion, the change in Total Employment in September is a statistical anomaly at best. Year-over-year growth comparisons in this series for the first nine months of 2012 range from 1.6% (August) to 2.2% (June). September's statistic was 2.0%. That is comfortably within the YTD range, but the 0.4% acceleration from August to September is two standard deviations from the mean.
That's reflects odds of about 20 to 1. The nine months of data for 2012 is a small sample, and we should not draw too much from it. But the 2 STDs from the mean outcome is an outlier, and we have reason to doubt that it accurately reflects employment conditions. In other words, the likelihood is that this was either a bad sample or a manipulated sample. Or perhaps a combination of both.
No, the government cannot manipulate economic statistics. But it can intentionally choose a sample that it knows is misleading. There is insufficient evidence to demonstrate malfeasance. But the corollary is also true.
It doesn’t need to manipulate anything. The means by which it measures those who have jobs as. % of those who are seeking jobs is sufficient to produce the honey numbers.
If these had been the first words of this piece I would have saved 10 seconds reading the first hundred words.