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Ohio Poll Analyst: Voter Turnout Modeling Predicts Big Ohio Trouble for Obama
Pajamas Media ^ | 10/05/2012 | Paula Bolyard

Posted on 10/05/2012 11:38:24 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

"Simply stated, Cuyahoga County has lost enough Democrats and independents since 2008 that, when projected across the state of Ohio, Obama’s big 2008 gains are all gone. Given how drastically voter registration has changed in Cuyahoga County since 2008, it is likely that Romney can carry the state of Ohio, which is quite contrary to what popular media polls are saying.”

That’s the analysis of Clinton Cooper at Election Insights [1], an Ohio firm that uses geographic information systems (GIS) and election data to illustrate the political landscape of the electorate.

While most pundits and media outlets are focused on the latest polls, flitting from registered voters to probable voters to undecided voters to disaffected voters to Karl Rove’s trusty whiteboard, Cooper claims the polls are inaccurate and that there’s a more scientific method for determining both voter turnout and the probable outcome of the election. In an exclusive interview with PJ Media, he said that his “simple model estimation shows that with certainty, current polling estimations in Ohio are based on outdated or ill-informed assumptions resulting in wrong conclusions.”

Cooper has been involved in local and regional government and politics for the last 10 years, serving in a policy advisory role for several government agencies and consulting firms in Ohio. He has a master’s degree in city and regional planning from The Ohio State University and 10 years of progressive experience in geographic information systems and statistical modeling. His company, based in northeast Ohio, blends geographic information systems with predictive statistical modeling to help candidates develop and implement winning campaign strategies.

After hearing a report that Ohio voter registration rolls have shrunk by 490,000 [2], Cooper wanted to see if media reports that Obama is enjoying a wide lead in the state would stand up to a statistical analysis based upon actual voter registrations and historical voting patterns.

He decided to analyze Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland and is the state’s most populous county. He says it’s representative of the state because “it has a large enough number of registered voters and you can statistically determine how many total votes each candidate will get in Ohio based on how many votes are cast for each party in Cuyahoga County.” In fact, from 1980 to 2008 an average of 17% of the total Democrat votes cast in Ohio presidential elections were cast in Cuyahoga County. In recent years, this has declined (to around 15.6% in 2008). During the same time period, an average of 9.3% of the total Ohio Republican ballots were cast in Cuyahoga County. That number declined to 7.5% in 2008. Since 1980, the average voter turnout for Cuyahoga County is 64.57%. Obviously, this is a fairly significant sample size.

Cooper found that Cuyahoga County has 208,207 fewer total registered voters in 2012 compared to 2008. The county has lost 48,872 Democrat-registered voters and 194,199 independent-registered voters. The difference — and this is significant to Cooper’s prediction — is made up by a surprising gain of 34,864 Republican voters since the 2008 election.

While undoubtedly the Great Ohio Republican Sweep of 2010 [3] contributed to the increased Republican voter registration in Cuyahoga County, Mitt Romney’s campaign strategy during the Ohio primary this year can also be credited with some of the gains. ABC News reported [4] earlier this year:

The campaign has been fielding teams to focus on growing Romney’s support in the central part of the state around Columbus; the northeast, including Cleveland and its suburbs; the northwest region around Toledo; Cincinnati and Dayton in the southwest; and Ohio’s sixth congressional district that hugs the border with Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

There was a clear focus on Cuyahoga County and other urban areas of the state and Romney’s efforts paid off. If you watched the Fox News coverage on Super Tuesday, you waited until late into the night for Ohio’s urban counties to report their returns. And you suffered through Karl Rove torturing our beloved “Cuyahoga” all night, calling it “ky-OH-guh” (it’s ky-uh-HO-guh, Karl). Though Rick Santorum led most of the night, Romney gobbled up all but one of the urban counties [5] (he lost Lucas County by a couple hundred votes) and won the state. Though it was a discouraging moment for Ohio conservatives and some declared it was proof that Romney is a liberal, this strategy may turn out to be what helps Romney win in November.

Clinton Cooper says that the key to predicting a candidate’s vote share is to determine not just the Republican and Democrat votes, but also the share of the independent vote the candidates will receive. A statistical analysis can estimate voter percentages based on historical voter turnout. He explained:

The first step in this analysis is to take the number of registered voters by party, then proportion the total votes received for each candidate by the turnout percentage on Election Day.

He calculated that 35.1% of total registered independents in Cuyahoga County (approximately 219,548) voted for Obama. He determined that 144,703 independents (23.1%) voted for McCain in 2008. According to Cooper:

This same procedure can be performed for each election since 1980 showing that on average, 28.2% of the registered independents historically vote Democrat and 30.3% historically vote Republican. The 2012 vote totals for Romney and Obama can be predicted using this historical 64.57% average turnout for elections since 1980. The projection is that Obama will receive 345,693 votes to Romney’s 212,178 in Cuyahoga County.

Ohio2012StatewidePrediction1.pdf [6][

Cooper then crunched the numbers (see the spreadsheet at his website [7]) based on historical voting registration and election results in Cuyahoga County and concluded:

Based on this, the prediction can be made that in 2012, Obama will receive 2,215,978 votes and Romney would win 2,829,037 votes if 7.5% of the total votes cast for Republicans were cast in Cuyahoga County. Romney would win 56.1% of Ohio’s vote to Obama’s 43.9%, with a turnout percentage of 64.67%. This analysis includes the assumption that total turnout will be much lower than past Ohio elections, confirming reports that overall enthusiasm is down for this presidential election compared to 2008.

For those keeping score at home, that’s a 12.2% advantage for Romney statewide.

Acknowledging that not everyone will agree with his assumptions of lower voter turnout this year and a Republican split at 2008 levels, he also calculated the numbers based on 2008 voter turnout [8]. Romney still wins Ohio based on 2008 numbers:

Even if the same turnout as in 2008 is used and the same vote split of independents for Obama and Romney in 2012 as it was for Obama and McCain in 2008, then Romney would win 50.36% of the vote to Obama’s 49.64%.

Cooper cautions that this is a simple model. It is based on historical voter trends, using voter registration and past election results as the primary means of predicting the winner. The model that he uses to advise campaigns is much more sophisticated, analyzing 25 to 30 variables. But he says that the trajectory indicates serious problems for President Obama in Ohio:

The analysis does not guarantee that Romney will win Ohio by 12%, but with certainty, the data does support that the changes in voter registration in Cuyahoga County have made it extremely difficult for Obama to win Ohio.

In another indication that things may not be going Obama’s way, the Washington Examiner reported on Thursday [9] that requests for absentee ballots have been showing gains in Romney’s direction:

While in 2008, 33 percent of the 1,158,301 absentee ballots went to Democrats and just 19 percent to registered Republicans, a 14-point gap, this year 29 percent are being requested by Democrats and 24 percent by Republicans, a five-point gap.

And in a sign that the enthusiasm of 2008 voters is depressed, just 638,997 absentee ballots have been requested, according to American Majority Action [10], which culled the statistics together from Ohio college professors who are tracking the state’s absentee ballots used for early voting. The group provided Secrets with the details.

Even more dramatic, while the GOP has cut the Democratic advantage in early voting throughout the state, the changes favoring the Republicans in certain counties has been huge. In Franklin County, home to Columbus, for example, a 2008 Democratic advantage of 5 percent is now a 5 percent GOP advantage. In Cuyahoga County, home to Democratic Cleveland, the GOP has shaved six points off the Democrat’s 2008 advantage. And in Hamilton County, home to Cincinnati, Republicans have expanded their 2008 advantage to 13 percent.

This absentee trend and Cooper’s analysis should cast serious doubt upon the gloomy picture the pollsters have painted of the Romney campaign efforts in Ohio in recent weeks.

President Obama may be in for a very unpleasant November surprise.



TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; elections; ohio; poll; turnout

1 posted on 10/05/2012 11:38:32 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

But don’t worry, Obama’s bogus unemployment figures will fix it for him.


2 posted on 10/05/2012 11:44:36 AM PDT by Hattie
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To: SeekAndFind

All of this analysis started right here at Free Republic.


3 posted on 10/05/2012 11:45:28 AM PDT by barmag25
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To: Hattie

Hey, if you don’t have a job, you don’t have a job.

No amount of data from the BLS is going to change that.


4 posted on 10/05/2012 11:47:33 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: SeekAndFind
This seems similar to what I wrote last nite.
5 posted on 10/05/2012 11:50:08 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: Hattie

I don’t know...

I think it will have the opposite effect because people know the numbers are being manipulated.

The ones that will try to defend them as true aren’t changing their vote anyway.


6 posted on 10/05/2012 11:52:04 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: SeekAndFind

This confirms the wipeout I see coming.


7 posted on 10/05/2012 11:52:30 AM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: SeekAndFind; Ravi; LS

I like this independent confirmation of what FReepers like LS and Ravi have been seeing as trneding on the absentee ballot request spreadsheet being for the past few weeks.


8 posted on 10/05/2012 11:55:35 AM PDT by plushaye (Election 2012 Prayer Force)
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To: SeekAndFind

Unexpected.


9 posted on 10/05/2012 11:57:51 AM PDT by Paladin2
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To: SeekAndFind

If Mitt wins Ohio He may very well run the table of battleground states and then some. I would guess that Mitt should win all states that G W Bush won in 2004 with the addition of Wisconsin. Michigan and or Pennsylvania would make it a blow out.


10 posted on 10/05/2012 12:08:06 PM PDT by BobinIL
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To: SeekAndFind

Obama is going to lose this election.

I hope that, even now, Romney/Ryan have a protocol for how they’l deal with the Liberals’ challenges to the victory. Because you KNOW, the Liberals WILL claim THEY won!!


11 posted on 10/05/2012 12:08:32 PM PDT by SMARTY ("The man who has no inner-life is a slave to his surroundings. "Henri Frederic Amiel)
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To: arrogantsob

Bogus Polls Ping


12 posted on 10/05/2012 12:10:12 PM PDT by Bshaw (A nefarious deceit is upon us all!)
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To: SeekAndFind

I saw an electoral vote map a few days ago that was very revealing. It showed obama way ahead, but it detailed by state and showed which way the state went in the last three elections.

If one took only the states that went for obama in the last election, but for the R in the previous two and adds the states that went R for all three, Romney will win with ~290 electoral votes.

When I saw that, I stopped worrying. I care not what the poll de-jure says. Romney will win.


13 posted on 10/05/2012 12:11:19 PM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Simply stated, Cuyahoga County has lost enough Democrats and independents since 2008 that, when projected across the state of Ohio, Obama’s big 2008 gains are all gone.

Reading between the lines, this confirms that the DemocRAT/Ubama criminal-complex stole the 2008 election.

14 posted on 10/05/2012 12:16:23 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the psychopath.)
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To: arrogantsob

We live in Cleveland. There are very few Obama yard signs or bumper stickers, at least on the West side. Very different than 08.

My worry is the time between November 7 and January 21 if R/R win. Obama and his delusional supporters are not likely to take the high road.


15 posted on 10/05/2012 12:35:55 PM PDT by chrisser (Starve the Monkeys!)
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To: chrisser

Va.Ohio, Florida and NC are not battlegrounds right now. We can move onto Pa, Wis, Michigan, NM,NV those are the battlegrounds.


16 posted on 10/05/2012 12:40:48 PM PDT by pburgh01
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To: chrisser

I was driving around in Missoula, Montana yesterday.

It is the home of the University of Montana and kinda liberal. In 2008, every car and breast had an Obama/Biden sticker on it.

Yesterday there were none.


17 posted on 10/05/2012 12:48:25 PM PDT by montomike (Politics should be about service and not a lucrative, money-making opportunity!)
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To: chrisser
I agree whole heartedly. I also live in West Park in the City of Cleveland and the LACK of O’Bumbler/BiteMe signs is telling. I have been saying that I believe that this will be an easy win for Romney, if not a full fledged land slide.

Does ANYBODY outside the employee parking lot at the West Wing believe the voracity of these UE numbers they are Orwellian.

18 posted on 10/05/2012 1:01:19 PM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: Ravi

Ravi -

What does this methodology predict for out of sample data? Using this method to predict 2008 with averages through 2004 and registration from 2008, it underestimates Obama’s 2008 vote by 7% and overestimates McCain’s by 22%.

There is a lot of variance in the Cuyahoga registration numbers and in the percent of independents captured by the respective parties. The standard deviation in registration numbers for Dems is 26% of the mean, for R’s it’s 19% of the mean, and I’s its 24% of the mean. For the % of Independents captured, the standard deviation for dems is 9% of the mean and for R’s its 14% of the mean.

I’m not a statistician, but I don’t think this model has any meaningful predictions to make since the numbers it’s based on are themselves highly variable due to factors not used by the model, like’s what’s happening in the world and whether the candidate is good or terrible. Extrapolating such a weak model from one county over the entire state makes even less sense.

Any competent statisticians or modelers out there care to comment?


19 posted on 10/05/2012 1:07:07 PM PDT by Buckhead
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To: chrisser

Although I do not expect any disturbances, you are in good shape with a Republican governor and a National Guard.

I live in Chicago, although away from the ghetto areas, and I don’t foresee any real problems even with the dumbest of dumbassed RAT governors.

The only fear of riots would be over an announcement to come somewhere for some freebe and have them run out.


20 posted on 10/05/2012 1:47:21 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: SeekAndFind

You got that right!! Mr Liar in Cheif, Ohio will never be blue again!!! Ohioians never forget! http://ac360.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/02/exclusive-arwa-damon-describes-what-she-saw-in-u-s-consulate/


21 posted on 10/05/2012 2:55:52 PM PDT by Ohiobelle
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To: SeekAndFind

I just voted in person today. If the Rats were not in trouble, why did they have a plethora of campaign workers trying to hand people sample ballots with the Rat candidates marked. I just ignored the one that came up to me and walked in and voted for Mitt. By the looks of some of the clowns in there, I’m sure there are a lot of O’bomber voters.


22 posted on 10/05/2012 5:05:46 PM PDT by Greg123456
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To: Buckhead; LS; Ravi

LS has been doing excellent work too- he and Ravi are digging down and showing us the facts.


23 posted on 10/05/2012 5:10:13 PM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet)
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To: pburgh01
Va.Ohio, Florida and NC are not battlegrounds right now. We can move onto Pa, Wis, Michigan, NM,NV those are the battlegrounds.

Hugh Hewitt had a guy on last night and noted 36% Catholics in PA, Highest NRA of any State, Coal and now Fracking Employees.

These 4 groups had this wonk convinced PA will go to Romney.

If so, onto MI.

I have been saying it will be where the action is since October 2010, I now think it will Obama's last desperate stand to stay in power.

24 posted on 10/05/2012 6:34:47 PM PDT by taildragger (( Fubarward Obama 2012, think about it :-) ))
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To: chrisser

We used to live in Shaker Heights. (Cleveland suburb, East Side) We got the *bleep* out of there because 0bama’s people are going to tear that city apart if he looses. I hope you and your family are prepared.


25 posted on 10/05/2012 6:54:10 PM PDT by Jotmo (Whoever said, "The pen is mightier than the sword." has clearly never been stabbed to death.)
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To: chrisser

I pray that Obama just takes the occasion of his defeat to reflect... You know, live those last few months of being a presidential rock star in between golf outings and taxpayer funded vacations.

Or, he could do the other thing...


26 posted on 10/05/2012 7:46:50 PM PDT by Bshaw (A nefarious deceit is upon us all!)
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To: Jotmo

Strongsville is at the ready....


27 posted on 10/05/2012 7:48:12 PM PDT by Bshaw (A nefarious deceit is upon us all!)
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To: SeekAndFind

“Uh, uh, Jim you may want to move on to another topic...” -—Hussein Obammy (Debate #1)


28 posted on 10/05/2012 8:38:01 PM PDT by Scooter100 ("Now that the fog has lifted, I still can't find my pipe". --- S. Holmes)
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To: pburgh01

“Va.Ohio, Florida and NC are not battlegrounds right now.”

They sure as heck are.

We have to be working like we are 5 points down because, with the media and other bias effects ... we probably are.

I am suspicious of the analysis of a single county being applied to a whole state. It doesnt work that way. Good data point, but polls are not agreeing so dont just up and assume victory.


29 posted on 10/05/2012 9:02:03 PM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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To: SeekAndFind

“No amount of data from the BLS is going to change that.”

Very true. But the cooked employment numbers aren’t aimed at the people who are out of a job. They’re aimed the wavering, “Gee, I kinda sorta like Obama” voters who are looking for a good reason to vote for him.


30 posted on 10/05/2012 9:52:08 PM PDT by MplsSteve (General Mills is pro-gay marriage! Boycott their products!)
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

Poll ping.


31 posted on 10/05/2012 9:54:21 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: Jotmo
Not the least bit worried about the Holder Army after an O’Bumbler loss. I will have no problems, even in the rough arias of town.

Of course I do CC everywhere West of West 65th St.

32 posted on 10/05/2012 10:00:51 PM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: Jim from C-Town

Strike that, Reverse it, EAST of WEST 65th St.


33 posted on 10/05/2012 10:01:36 PM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: Buckhead

Was a professional math man for 16 years (actuary).

It is impossible to make firm predictions, due to Rs in 2008 voting for Hitlery in the primary, same for Demonrats for Romey/Akin in 2012, etc. Throw in a Demon SoS in 2008, vs. a R in 2012, and I get a 10 point swing, at least, modified by demographics giving Obama another 2, net-net Romney by 2 or more. Standard dev on the ground Oct-Nov is about 2.4% on this, so say 80% chance Romney wins Ohio, 78% chance Romney wins. But don’t bet on PA, unless Philly has a near-honest vote.


34 posted on 10/05/2012 10:24:34 PM PDT by bIlluminati (290 Reps, 67 Senators, 38 state legislatures - Impeach, convict, amend)
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To: chrisser
We live in Cleveland. There are very few Obama yard signs or bumper stickers, at least on the West side. Very different than 08.

Same here in Moonbatchusetts. Zero bumper stickers are extremely rare. Zero enthusiasm for Zero.

Scott Brown will beat Fauxahontas by five. I'm beginning to wonder if he'll have coat tails.

35 posted on 10/05/2012 10:34:37 PM PDT by St_Thomas_Aquinas (Viva Christo Rey!)
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To: St_Thomas_Aquinas; chrisser

Oh, please say that Warren will be defeated! She is one dangerous, spooky Commie.

Just an observation from the reddest of the red states - I haven’t seen any stickers or signs for either candidate in the Tulsa area, but sorry to say there are a few Obama signs in Norman, home to OU. I haven’t seen any for Mitt there.

Not that there is any doubt which way this state will go.


36 posted on 10/06/2012 3:22:55 AM PDT by Pining_4_TX ( The state is the great fiction by which everybody seeks to live at the expense of everybody else. ~)
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To: Buckhead

I am convinced that the only way to poll this election is to only call people who voted in 2008, by using their voting history information ... then screen for who is planning to vote this year ... voting this year, which cuts down and changes model. Then model the new voters, the ones who did not vote in 2008.

4 group of voters:
yes ‘08, yes ‘12
yes ‘08, no ‘12
no ‘08, yes ‘12
no ‘08, no ‘12

then you can weight by horserace McCain vs Obama to see if the first 2 groups give you the correct number by actual ‘08 vote.

this is not simply a polling problem, but require research on how many new voters to expect ..... the 18 to 21 age is all new.

Since most polls do not use actual voting lists with voting history ... most are useless, they cannot even identify which party the person belonged to in ‘08.


37 posted on 10/06/2012 5:31:51 AM PDT by campaignPete R-CT (and we are still campaigning for local conservatives in central CT.)
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To: Jotmo

I think if unrest comes, the East side of Cleveland, and possibly downtown, will be worse than the West - just demographics.

That said, we’re armed and have a dog. Have friends in Strongsville and relatives in both Lorain and Geauga counties. Our house is minutes away from three interstates. My office is in Independence and would be easy to hold out in if necessary (we have a generator and a secure building in a pretty isolated industrial park).

(You can probably tell I’ve thought about this a bit...)

Worse case, we have property in rural WV, but things would have to go downhill nationally to resort to that...


38 posted on 10/06/2012 9:32:57 AM PDT by chrisser (Starve the Monkeys!)
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To: Buckhead

Honored to reply to a post by the famous Buckhead. Thanks for 2004....


39 posted on 10/06/2012 7:52:22 PM PDT by teg_76
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To: Greg123456

That sounds like voter fraud. Not sure its legal for anyone but you to mark your ballot.

Fox News is asking for any and all possible voter fraud to be brought to their attention. You should.


40 posted on 10/06/2012 8:00:50 PM PDT by uncitizen
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To: Greg123456

That sounds like voter fraud. Not sure its legal for anyone but you to mark your ballot.

Fox News is asking for any and all possible voter fraud to be brought to their attention. You should.


41 posted on 10/06/2012 8:00:50 PM PDT by uncitizen
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To: Greg123456

That sounds like voter fraud. Not sure its legal for anyone but you to mark your ballot.

Fox News is asking for any and all possible voter fraud to be brought to their attention. You should.


42 posted on 10/06/2012 8:00:54 PM PDT by uncitizen
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To: WOSG
There are three large cities in Ohio; Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati.....Cincinnati is conservative, Colubus tends toward democrat but can be an even or close to even split but Cleveland (Cuyahoga county) has been a heavily Democratic, Rust Belt city for eons....

Cleveland used to dictate how the state would vote in past decades. If Cleveland is significantly losing it's democratic base then the democrats will have a very hard time making Ohio blue and even getting it to move that way again in the future.

That's why that one county is so important to watch.

In full disclosure, I lived one county below Cuyahoga my entire life until last year then I moved to Georgia.

43 posted on 10/07/2012 4:47:34 PM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
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To: uncitizen

They weren’t marking real ballots, just sample ones that a unthinking robot (democrat) is supposed to go, “Dee george I guess I’m supposed to fill out my ballot exactly like this paper or they’ll take away big bird”.


44 posted on 10/07/2012 10:35:14 PM PDT by Greg123456
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To: SeekAndFind
I don't understand is how the author knows that the nominal Republicans in the big towns and cities who helped Romney win the Ohio primary last spring won't simply go home to the Democratic Party in November, giving the State to Obama while conservative Republicans sit at home.
45 posted on 10/07/2012 11:42:32 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: Buckhead

All very good points. I like the spreadsheet but it really is not completely determinative as you say. There are quite a few variables at play here.


46 posted on 10/08/2012 7:15:40 AM PDT by Ravi
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