Skip to comments.Mitt Romney likely victory indicated by QStarNews swing state poll
Posted on 10/05/2012 3:01:01 PM PDT by Ron C.
The QStarNews poll of swing states released today shows President Obama leading 49.61 percent to 47.99 percent in the popular vote collectively in the 11 key swing states surveyed while Mitt Romney leads in seven of the 11 swing states. The QStarNews poll surveyed likely voters from Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. The poll included 2737 likely voters from those 11 states and had a margin of error of 1.87 percent.
The president has a slightly higher disapproval rating than his approval rating among the likely voters in the 11 states in the QStarNews poll. Those who somewhat approve of Obama's performance as president were 25.27 percent while 23.65 strongly approve of the president for a total approval rating of 48.92 percent. Those who disapprove were divided between 4.61 percent who somewhat disapprove and 45.38 percent who strongly disapprove for a total disapproval rate of 49.99 percent. All responses in this survey were obtained before the first debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.
(Excerpt) Read more at examiner.com ...
Here is a quick wrap-up of the poll from the article:
COLORADO - Romney/Ryan 49.92 - Obama/Biden 49.68 lead = .24
Florida - Romney/Ryan 50.57 - Obama/Biden 48.55 lead = 2.02
Michigan - Romney/Ryan 47.97 - Obama/Biden 45.67 lead = 2.30
Nevada - Romney/Ryan 55.83 - Obama/Biden 44.73 lead = 11.10
New Hampshire - Romney/Ryan 47.83 - Obama/Biden 47.54 lead = .29
North Carolina - Romney/Ryan 49.44 - Obama/Biden 49.03 lead = .41
Virginia - Romney/Ryan 50.39 - Obama/Biden 47.45 lead = 2.94
Ohio - Obama/Biden 54.46 - Romney/Ryan 43.01 lead = 11.45
Pennsylvania - Obama/Biden 51.52 - Romney/Ryan 46.80 lead = 4.72
Iowa - Obama/Biden 57.51 - Romney/Ryan 41.81 lead = 15.70
Wisconsin - Obama/Biden 55.21 - Romney/Ryan 43.45 lead = 11.76
Yes it's a tight race, with massive fraud and continuous media assault - BUT WE CAN OVERCOME THAT!
I believe Romney can win Pennsylvania!
IF... ALL of us do what we can to support the conservative effort - WE WILL DEFEAT THAT JACKASS OBAMA!
So what is this in terms of electors? How is Romney winning?
ONE MORE THING - we must all dig deep and SUPPORT FReerepublic.com - DONATE ASAP!
If those were to hold true, Romney would win the Presidency by 273 to 265 EC votes.
They Obama winning Ohio? That really doesn’t mesh well with the data from early voting, especially by such a large margin.
But I question the poll on its face, given there's no way IA is foregone Obama. If anything Romney is even or better there...BUT I will take this as reason to restore my original tag...
They have Romney up 283 to 255.
They are giving Romney 75% of undecided votes.
There, fixed it.
Romney 90 electors - if he indeed wins these state.
If Obama wins all of the states he is ahead in, he gets 58 electors.
So Romney is ahead by 32 electors... if he indeed wins the states this poll shows him ahead in. But I don't believe he will win New Hampshire.
But, I think Obama just may lose Pennsylvania... from what I'm hearing/reading.
Sorry, miscounted. 283 to 255.
Thanks for your number crunching! I hope it turns out that way, and a bit more.
Biden is a very accomplished liar (see his debate performance against Palin in 08).
Lot riding on Ryan next week. No question he will do well, but he must be able to tactfully and unequivocally rebut lies, preferably with data.
Romney came up with a nice rebuttal to the $5 trillion unpaid tax plan today, but an even better rebuttal would be the following. When it is clear that Biden/Obama is lying, say simply “You know, he is saying one thing and I’m saying another. How would a rational person reconcile these conflicting versions of reality? Well, the gold standard today in science is typically data in the form of academic studies. Yes, these can be difficult to comprehend, but let me tell you that the existing academic evidence is x....”
The problem is that Biden/Obama can lie their heads off and the MSM is not going to call them on it. I wouldn’t want to be in a position where it becomes a popularity contest, therefore I would want to be able to appeal to data.
An example is Romney’s tax cuts. He mentioned during the debate that lowering tax rates encourages investment and increases the tax base. Well that is exactly what the data shows. He should have pointed out that when the Bush tax cuts were fully implemented in 2003 that tax revenues actually went UP! He should also have pointed out that the democrats’ ridiculous claims assume no change in behavior when tax rates are reduced and that the academic evidence shows that this NEVER happens.
Yes you might appear wonky, but give us the damn data and put them in their place.
I hope Ohio proves to be a bad poll - because I think that number is off too.
If Ohio goes for Romney THAT would be a huge wipe-out!
These are based on a web-based poll that is linked to unskewedpolls.com, which likely has a right-leaning readership. Moreover, the sample sizes are tiny, so the margins of error are huge. I wouldn’t read anything into these polls...
GREAT POINT Par!
That poll shows Obama doing significantly better in Ohio and Iowa in 2012 than in 2008.
Ain’t gonna happen that way.
Even small net samples tell a story that you don't get via phone calls to known party members. Try taking their polls again - you'll be blocked. Yeah, you could go to another computer and do it, but how many will take the time.
They said this... "The poll included 2737 likely voters from those 11 states and had a margin of error of 1.87 percent."
I'll have to ask how they came up with that number... I'll wager it's pretty close.
I hope you are RIGHT!
We'll see new numbers on this on a daily basis soon.
I sure hope you’re right about IA!! I hope after the drubbing Obama got in the first debate, we’ll see ever greater numbers for Romney/Ryan!
I think as far as Undecideds go it would go about 80/20 to Romney
NICE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!but we need to keep praying and WORKING!!!!!!!!!!
I like to see the Yahoo polls on anything political. The sample is usually 250,000 to 500,000 votes. I’m sure there are some voting more than once but that swings both ways. Anyways what you see is a consistant 65/35 split(averages) and conservative thought is massive compared to libs. My prediction is 59/41 Romney wins. It would be 62/38 but there will be massive fraud. When Romney and Ryan win they better target that issue.
Obama is in trouble...
I just logged into Xbox and took a poll about the election.
“If the election were held today, who would you vote for?”
Obama - 46%
Romney - 47&
If you can’t even carry the Xbox Live demographic, do you have a shot at carrying the country?
Zero chance Romney wins Michigan and loses Ohio, especially not by those numbers.
Ohio is probably THE key this year. Whoever takes it, takes the Presidency.
Pre-debate, Romney was almost definitely behind. Lets hope the debate brought enough Ohioans to their senses.
So I guess we can call it then? It’s all over for the other side? /sarc
The comment sections on the Yahoo articles are very telling, 6 months ago they were about even, now the comments are about 80/20 in Romneys favor. Yahoo’s articles run about 75-80% for 0bama.
Just about every conservative would instinctively bet on that - myself first and foremost.
All I can say is, I hope Ohioans have their heads screwed on straight - as we can ill afford another minute of this lousy prez, much less another four years.
Thanks for that! The Zero-bamy ain’t lookin’ so lucky anymore!
I went looking for the latest, and could not easily find a recent one. Do you have a link?
Being that yahoo is a pretty liberal outfit, I doubt they would undercut Obama by running many of these right now.
The Iowa and Ohio numbers are some of the worst numbers of any poll...just TERRIBLE for Romney. The others are good, but too many of the “wins” are extremely close. The problem is, more of the states have big wins for Obama rather than Romney in this survey.
Yahoo usually has some kind of poll at the end of an article, before the comments - most polls have Romney at 65% to 0bama’s 35%
I monitor the Yahoo headlines. Why they don’t call it The official Obama online campaign journal, I don’t know. But it does seem like readers are more alert to their bias.
Romney was behind if you are allowed to oversample Ds and women. That is the only way a lead could be obtained by The Disaster.
75-80% of the people commenting all post how biased Yahoo is
I don’t. maybe someone more savvy on the computer and history can find something. Copy me in too please.
Weird. Romney is ahead 11.1 points in Nevada and taking ichigan with 2.30, while being behind 11.45 points in Ohio. Seems totally implausible. And, Romney only behind 4.72 in Pennsylvania and Obama is ahead 15.7 in Iowa? And Obama ahead in 11.76 points in Wisconsin? Bizarre. Weird. Queer.
I don't care if he wins by a measly 1 vote as long as he wins.
Actually, within each state, the MOE is pretty massive. 2737 divided by 11 = 249 polled in each state.
This poll is garbage...there is no way that Obama leads by double digits in Ohio, yet Romney is ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania?
How does Romney win Michigan but loses Ohio???
Not sure from whence this +11 nonsense is arising.
I thought Sarah Palin got blindsided by Biden’s lies in 2008. He made up a bunch of crap during the debate and she looked surprised a couple of times.
Of course the next day they gave Biden 200 pinnochios or something but the lies were already out there in front of a huge audience. Hope Ryan’s expecting the unexpected.
The article is complete garbage. That’s why you see ridiculous results like the huge Ohio lead for Obama. Look at how many likely voters they surveyed from each state. Less than 100 in some cases. If you don’t poll around 1,000 people in each group than the results are meaningless.
61 likely votes — 12.55 margin of error
181 likely votes — 7.28 margin of error
209 likely votes — 6.78 margin of error
Nevada has quite of few members of Gov. Romney’s religious denomination.
In a historical context, given their exclusively American heritage and their history, it would mean quite a bit to them if part of their story included one of their own coming to the rescue of America in her hour of great need.
Do I like Mitt Romney? No. He embodies the very 1%'er caricature for which Republicans are vilified. But he's what we've got, and he did show a fine batting average and slugging percentage last Wednesday.
Must?, nope...Should, yep!!
Thank you Ron C.!