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Mitt Romney likely victory indicated by QStarNews swing state poll
examiner.com ^ | October 4, 2012 | Dean Chambers

Posted on 10/05/2012 3:01:01 PM PDT by Ron C.

The QStarNews poll of swing states released today shows President Obama leading 49.61 percent to 47.99 percent in the popular vote collectively in the 11 key swing states surveyed while Mitt Romney leads in seven of the 11 swing states. The QStarNews poll surveyed likely voters from Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. The poll included 2737 likely voters from those 11 states and had a margin of error of 1.87 percent.

The president has a slightly higher disapproval rating than his approval rating among the likely voters in the 11 states in the QStarNews poll. Those who somewhat approve of Obama's performance as president were 25.27 percent while 23.65 strongly approve of the president for a total approval rating of 48.92 percent. Those who disapprove were divided between 4.61 percent who somewhat disapprove and 45.38 percent who strongly disapprove for a total disapproval rate of 49.99 percent. All responses in this survey were obtained before the first debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.

(Excerpt) Read more at examiner.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; election
NOTE - this poll was completed BEFORE the first debate which Romney resoundingly won.

Here is a quick wrap-up of the poll from the article:

ROMNEY WINNING:

COLORADO       - Romney/Ryan 49.92 - Obama/Biden 49.68 lead =   .24
Florida        - Romney/Ryan 50.57 - Obama/Biden 48.55 lead =  2.02
Michigan       - Romney/Ryan 47.97 - Obama/Biden 45.67 lead =  2.30
Nevada         - Romney/Ryan 55.83 - Obama/Biden 44.73 lead = 11.10
New Hampshire  - Romney/Ryan 47.83 - Obama/Biden 47.54 lead =   .29
North Carolina - Romney/Ryan 49.44 - Obama/Biden 49.03 lead =   .41
Virginia       - Romney/Ryan 50.39 - Obama/Biden 47.45 lead =  2.94

OBAMA WINNING:

Ohio           - Obama/Biden 54.46 - Romney/Ryan 43.01 lead = 11.45
Pennsylvania   - Obama/Biden 51.52 - Romney/Ryan 46.80 lead =  4.72
Iowa           - Obama/Biden 57.51 - Romney/Ryan 41.81 lead = 15.70
Wisconsin      - Obama/Biden 55.21 - Romney/Ryan 43.45 lead = 11.76

Yes it's a tight race, with massive fraud and continuous media assault - BUT WE CAN OVERCOME THAT!

I believe Romney can win Pennsylvania!

IF... ALL of us do what we can to support the conservative effort - WE WILL DEFEAT THAT JACKASS OBAMA!

1 posted on 10/05/2012 3:01:08 PM PDT by Ron C.
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To: Ron C.

So what is this in terms of electors? How is Romney winning?


2 posted on 10/05/2012 3:05:26 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: All

ONE MORE THING - we must all dig deep and SUPPORT FReerepublic.com - DONATE ASAP!


3 posted on 10/05/2012 3:06:13 PM PDT by Ron C.
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To: Ron C.

BUMP


4 posted on 10/05/2012 3:07:03 PM PDT by kitkat
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To: SoFloFreeper

If those were to hold true, Romney would win the Presidency by 273 to 265 EC votes.


5 posted on 10/05/2012 3:14:18 PM PDT by Anitius Severinus Boethius (http://www.amazon.com/dp/B008BAL1OK/)
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To: Ron C.

They Obama winning Ohio? That really doesn’t mesh well with the data from early voting, especially by such a large margin.


6 posted on 10/05/2012 3:14:31 PM PDT by Shadow44
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To: Ron C.
Wow that NV measure is freaky good...if that's not an outlier Romney wins for fun.

But I question the poll on its face, given there's no way IA is foregone Obama. If anything Romney is even or better there...BUT I will take this as reason to restore my original tag...

7 posted on 10/05/2012 3:14:43 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, IA OR NV = 272EV)
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To: SoFloFreeper

They have Romney up 283 to 255.

They are giving Romney 75% of undecided votes.


8 posted on 10/05/2012 3:15:49 PM PDT by Dave346
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To: Ron C.
ALL of us do what we can to support the conservative Republican effort

There, fixed it.

9 posted on 10/05/2012 3:17:10 PM PDT by who_would_fardels_bear
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To: SoFloFreeper
"So what is this in terms of electors?"

Romney 90 electors - if he indeed wins these state.

If Obama wins all of the states he is ahead in, he gets 58 electors.

So Romney is ahead by 32 electors... if he indeed wins the states this poll shows him ahead in. But I don't believe he will win New Hampshire.

But, I think Obama just may lose Pennsylvania... from what I'm hearing/reading.

10 posted on 10/05/2012 3:18:18 PM PDT by Ron C.
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To: Anitius Severinus Boethius

Sorry, miscounted. 283 to 255.


11 posted on 10/05/2012 3:19:35 PM PDT by Anitius Severinus Boethius (http://www.amazon.com/dp/B008BAL1OK/)
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To: Anitius Severinus Boethius

Thanks for your number crunching! I hope it turns out that way, and a bit more.


12 posted on 10/05/2012 3:20:12 PM PDT by Ron C.
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To: All

Biden is a very accomplished liar (see his debate performance against Palin in 08).

Lot riding on Ryan next week. No question he will do well, but he must be able to tactfully and unequivocally rebut lies, preferably with data.

Romney came up with a nice rebuttal to the $5 trillion unpaid tax plan today, but an even better rebuttal would be the following. When it is clear that Biden/Obama is lying, say simply “You know, he is saying one thing and I’m saying another. How would a rational person reconcile these conflicting versions of reality? Well, the gold standard today in science is typically data in the form of academic studies. Yes, these can be difficult to comprehend, but let me tell you that the existing academic evidence is x....”

The problem is that Biden/Obama can lie their heads off and the MSM is not going to call them on it. I wouldn’t want to be in a position where it becomes a popularity contest, therefore I would want to be able to appeal to data.

An example is Romney’s tax cuts. He mentioned during the debate that lowering tax rates encourages investment and increases the tax base. Well that is exactly what the data shows. He should have pointed out that when the Bush tax cuts were fully implemented in 2003 that tax revenues actually went UP! He should also have pointed out that the democrats’ ridiculous claims assume no change in behavior when tax rates are reduced and that the academic evidence shows that this NEVER happens.

Yes you might appear wonky, but give us the damn data and put them in their place.


13 posted on 10/05/2012 3:21:29 PM PDT by PAR
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To: Shadow44
They Obama winning Ohio?

I hope Ohio proves to be a bad poll - because I think that number is off too.

If Ohio goes for Romney THAT would be a huge wipe-out!

14 posted on 10/05/2012 3:23:12 PM PDT by Ron C.
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To: Ron C.

These are based on a web-based poll that is linked to unskewedpolls.com, which likely has a right-leaning readership. Moreover, the sample sizes are tiny, so the margins of error are huge. I wouldn’t read anything into these polls...


15 posted on 10/05/2012 3:25:40 PM PDT by Conscience of a Conservative
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To: PAR

GREAT POINT Par!


16 posted on 10/05/2012 3:26:43 PM PDT by Ron C.
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To: Ron C.

That poll shows Obama doing significantly better in Ohio and Iowa in 2012 than in 2008.

Ain’t gonna happen that way.


17 posted on 10/05/2012 3:27:52 PM PDT by Fresh Wind ('People have got to know whether or not their president is a crook.' Richard M. Nixon)
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To: Conscience of a Conservative
Very true what you said. I'm sure they are hit by bogus respondents that do what they can to mess up the polls. But, many of them leave a track behind that can be read, and discounted.

Even small net samples tell a story that you don't get via phone calls to known party members. Try taking their polls again - you'll be blocked. Yeah, you could go to another computer and do it, but how many will take the time.

18 posted on 10/05/2012 3:38:58 PM PDT by Ron C.
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To: Conscience of a Conservative
I neglected this:

They said this... "The poll included 2737 likely voters from those 11 states and had a margin of error of 1.87 percent."

I'll have to ask how they came up with that number... I'll wager it's pretty close.

19 posted on 10/05/2012 3:41:38 PM PDT by Ron C.
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To: Ron C.
PRESIDENT MITT VICE PRESIDENT RYAN
20 posted on 10/05/2012 3:41:47 PM PDT by jimsin (u)
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To: Fresh Wind
"Ain’t gonna happen that way."

I hope you are RIGHT!

We'll see new numbers on this on a daily basis soon.

21 posted on 10/05/2012 3:43:11 PM PDT by Ron C.
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To: StAnDeliver

I sure hope you’re right about IA!! I hope after the drubbing Obama got in the first debate, we’ll see ever greater numbers for Romney/Ryan!


22 posted on 10/05/2012 3:47:50 PM PDT by Ron C.
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To: Dave346

I think as far as Undecideds go it would go about 80/20 to Romney


23 posted on 10/05/2012 3:53:01 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: jimsin

NICE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!but we need to keep praying and WORKING!!!!!!!!!!


24 posted on 10/05/2012 4:08:12 PM PDT by pollywog ("O Thou who changest not, abide with me.".......)
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To: Ron C.

I like to see the Yahoo polls on anything political. The sample is usually 250,000 to 500,000 votes. I’m sure there are some voting more than once but that swings both ways. Anyways what you see is a consistant 65/35 split(averages) and conservative thought is massive compared to libs. My prediction is 59/41 Romney wins. It would be 62/38 but there will be massive fraud. When Romney and Ryan win they better target that issue.


25 posted on 10/05/2012 4:14:09 PM PDT by liberty or death
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To: Ron C.

Obama is in trouble...

I just logged into Xbox and took a poll about the election.

“If the election were held today, who would you vote for?”
Obama - 46%
Romney - 47&
Other-5%
Undecided-2%

If you can’t even carry the Xbox Live demographic, do you have a shot at carrying the country?


26 posted on 10/05/2012 4:30:45 PM PDT by HawkHogan
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To: Ron C.

Zero chance Romney wins Michigan and loses Ohio, especially not by those numbers.

Ohio is probably THE key this year. Whoever takes it, takes the Presidency.

Pre-debate, Romney was almost definitely behind. Lets hope the debate brought enough Ohioans to their senses.


27 posted on 10/05/2012 4:44:29 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: All

So I guess we can call it then? It’s all over for the other side? /sarc


28 posted on 10/05/2012 4:58:01 PM PDT by jcsjcm (This country was built on exceptionalism and individualism. In God we Trust - Laus Deo)
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To: liberty or death

The comment sections on the Yahoo articles are very telling, 6 months ago they were about even, now the comments are about 80/20 in Romneys favor. Yahoo’s articles run about 75-80% for 0bama.


29 posted on 10/05/2012 5:35:27 PM PDT by PMAS (All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing)
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To: comebacknewt
"Zero chance Romney wins Michigan and loses Ohio..."

Just about every conservative would instinctively bet on that - myself first and foremost.

All I can say is, I hope Ohioans have their heads screwed on straight - as we can ill afford another minute of this lousy prez, much less another four years.

30 posted on 10/05/2012 5:44:08 PM PDT by Ron C.
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To: HawkHogan

Thanks for that! The Zero-bamy ain’t lookin’ so lucky anymore!


31 posted on 10/05/2012 5:46:01 PM PDT by Ron C.
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To: liberty or death
"I like to see the Yahoo polls... "

I went looking for the latest, and could not easily find a recent one. Do you have a link?

Being that yahoo is a pretty liberal outfit, I doubt they would undercut Obama by running many of these right now.

32 posted on 10/05/2012 5:54:52 PM PDT by Ron C.
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To: Ron C.; All

The Iowa and Ohio numbers are some of the worst numbers of any poll...just TERRIBLE for Romney. The others are good, but too many of the “wins” are extremely close. The problem is, more of the states have big wins for Obama rather than Romney in this survey.


33 posted on 10/05/2012 6:06:25 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: Ron C.

Yahoo usually has some kind of poll at the end of an article, before the comments - most polls have Romney at 65% to 0bama’s 35%


34 posted on 10/05/2012 6:07:56 PM PDT by PMAS (All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing)
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To: PMAS

I monitor the Yahoo headlines. Why they don’t call it The official Obama online campaign journal, I don’t know. But it does seem like readers are more alert to their bias.


35 posted on 10/05/2012 6:10:04 PM PDT by Rennes Templar (I'm starting a business. Who's going to build it for me?)
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To: comebacknewt

Romney was behind if you are allowed to oversample Ds and women. That is the only way a lead could be obtained by The Disaster.


36 posted on 10/05/2012 6:11:00 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: Rennes Templar

75-80% of the people commenting all post how biased Yahoo is


37 posted on 10/05/2012 6:12:41 PM PDT by PMAS (All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing)
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To: Ron C.

I don’t. maybe someone more savvy on the computer and history can find something. Copy me in too please.


38 posted on 10/05/2012 6:19:48 PM PDT by liberty or death
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To: Ron C.

Weird. Romney is ahead 11.1 points in Nevada and taking ichigan with 2.30, while being behind 11.45 points in Ohio. Seems totally implausible. And, Romney only behind 4.72 in Pennsylvania and Obama is ahead 15.7 in Iowa? And Obama ahead in 11.76 points in Wisconsin? Bizarre. Weird. Queer.


39 posted on 10/05/2012 6:21:17 PM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: Anitius Severinus Boethius
If those were to hold true, Romney would win the Presidency by 273 to 265 EC votes.

I don't care if he wins by a measly 1 vote as long as he wins.

40 posted on 10/05/2012 6:41:15 PM PDT by unixfox (Abolish Slavery, Repeal The 16th Amendment!)
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To: SoFloFreeper
"The poll included 2737 likely voters from those 11 states and had a margin of error of 1.87 percent.

Actually, within each state, the MOE is pretty massive. 2737 divided by 11 = 249 polled in each state.

41 posted on 10/05/2012 7:00:47 PM PDT by cookcounty (Kagan and Sotomayor side with Joe Wilson: -------Obama DID lie!)
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To: unixfox

This poll is garbage...there is no way that Obama leads by double digits in Ohio, yet Romney is ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania?


42 posted on 10/05/2012 7:04:52 PM PDT by mrs9x
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To: Ron C.

How does Romney win Michigan but loses Ohio???


43 posted on 10/05/2012 7:17:34 PM PDT by OrangeHoof (Our economy won't heal until one particular black man is unemployed.)
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To: WashingtonSource
Ohio, post 10-3, is tied. Rasumussen with a sample of 500LV has Obama up 1, while WeAskAmerica with a sample of 1200LV has Romney up 1.

Not sure from whence this +11 nonsense is arising.

44 posted on 10/05/2012 7:28:01 PM PDT by Lexinom
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To: PAR

I thought Sarah Palin got blindsided by Biden’s lies in 2008. He made up a bunch of crap during the debate and she looked surprised a couple of times.

Of course the next day they gave Biden 200 pinnochios or something but the lies were already out there in front of a huge audience. Hope Ryan’s expecting the unexpected.


45 posted on 10/05/2012 7:51:38 PM PDT by Kenny
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To: Ron C.

The article is complete garbage. That’s why you see ridiculous results like the huge Ohio lead for Obama. Look at how many likely voters they surveyed from each state. Less than 100 in some cases. If you don’t poll around 1,000 people in each group than the results are meaningless.

IOWA
61 likely votes — 12.55 margin of error

MICHIGAN
181 likely votes — 7.28 margin of error

OHIO
209 likely votes — 6.78 margin of error


46 posted on 10/05/2012 8:06:28 PM PDT by JediJones (ROMNEY/RYAN: TURNAROUND ARTISTS ***** OBAMA/BIDEN: BULL $HIT ARTISTS)
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To: StAnDeliver

Nevada has quite of few members of Gov. Romney’s religious denomination.


47 posted on 10/05/2012 8:07:05 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Well, I've had a number of Mormon friends, customers, and coworkers over the years. I've always maintained the Mormons as a clean-cut lot with some rather kooky doctrines.

In a historical context, given their exclusively American heritage and their history, it would mean quite a bit to them if part of their story included one of their own coming to the rescue of America in her hour of great need.

Do I like Mitt Romney? No. He embodies the very 1%'er caricature for which Republicans are vilified. But he's what we've got, and he did show a fine batting average and slugging percentage last Wednesday.

48 posted on 10/05/2012 11:49:32 PM PDT by Lexinom
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To: Ron C.
ONE MORE THING - we must all dig deep and SUPPORT FReerepublic.com - DONATE ASAP!

Must?, nope...Should, yep!!

Thank you Ron C.!

49 posted on 10/06/2012 12:00:31 AM PDT by houeto (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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