Skip to comments.DEUTSCHE BANK: Here's One Way That Obama Campaign DID Juice The Jobs Data
Posted on 10/05/2012 3:30:43 PM PDT by blam
DEUTSCHE BANK: Here's One Way That Obama Campaign DID Juice The Jobs Data
October 5, 2012
Today's drop in the unemployment rate had the conspiracy theorists accusing the Obama administration of massaging the numbers.
But according to Deutsche Bank's Joe LaVorgna, Obama's campaign may have played a role in the numbers.
...And so did Mitt Romney's.
In his note summing up the week in economics, LaVorgna writes:
we have observed a large rise in parttime employment, which arguably hints of the sort of temporary, part-time hiring that is often associated with political campaigns. In addition, we also observed a large +368k increase in employment of 20 to 24 year olds, arguably the demographic most likely to take part working on political campaigns.
Get that? The campaigns did boost employment by their direct hiring of young workers!
...the drop in the unemployment rate does not jibe with either the economys recent patch of middling growth or the fact that most of the gain in household employment was outside of private industry.
The fact that most of the gains were part-time and that a large portion of the increase was in the 20 to 24 year old demographic, arguably provides some anecdotal evidence that election year hiring may have artificially lowered the unemployment rate. However, we will not know this to be the case until well after the election season ends.
Incidentally, the New York Times' Catherine Rampell has her own explanation on the jump in employment for page aged 20-24 namely, that they are now leaving summer jobs earlier than usual, and that BLS's seasonally adjusted numbers now reflect this.
Changes in seasonal patterns like this one can introduce more error into the headline numbers, and can at least partly explain
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
My impression is this: the unemployment rate has been almost static for months. Now, one month before the election, there’s a sudden, unexpected drop. My opinion is that it was caused by changes in the way the unemployment rate has been calculated.
You don't think that Obama's programs have finally begun to turn-around the George Bush 'mess'?
Back to school,kids in college getting work study jobs.
Where is that picture of a bear in the woods when you need it?
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has called long-term unemployment a “national crisis” . Does this new data now mean that there’ll be no more QE3?