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Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Rasmussen) - O:47%, R:49%, 'other':2%
Rasmussen ^ | Oct. 6, 2012 | Rasmussen

Posted on 10/06/2012 6:44:28 AM PDT by AFPhys

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

These results are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, only about two-thirds of the interviews for today’s update were conducted after the presidential debate. Sunday morning’s update will be the first national polling based entirely upon post-debate interviews.

Still, the numbers reflect quite a debate bounce for Romney. Heading into Wednesday’s showdown, it was the president who enjoyed a two-point advantage. Today is the first time Romney has been ahead by even a single point since mid-September. See daily tracking history. As with all bounces, it remains to be seen whether it is a temporary blip or signals a lasting change in the race.

Both men have solidified their partisan base. Romney is supported by 89% of Republicans and Obama by 88% of Democrats. Among those not affiliated with either major party, Romney leads by 16.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; polls
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A bit of a bounce...
1 posted on 10/06/2012 6:44:32 AM PDT by AFPhys
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To: AFPhys

And one of those three days was being the debate :)

WOOT!


2 posted on 10/06/2012 6:46:40 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama lied .. the economy died.)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

being = before

I need some coffee


3 posted on 10/06/2012 6:47:09 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama lied .. the economy died.)
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To: AFPhys

Just a bit? *wink*

Rasmussen doesn’t do big swings very well because they weight their party affiliations. A one-day 4-point swing when the debate has not even been baked in yet is gigantic.


4 posted on 10/06/2012 6:49:42 AM PDT by Cruising For Freedom (Don't be the proof that MSM PsyOps works.)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

Yes... and I think that Ras had 0bama (aka Zero, -bama, Minusbama, etc...) up by 50-47 the day before the debate, if I recall correctly. This is a huge difference.


5 posted on 10/06/2012 6:50:17 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: AFPhys
President Obama earns the vote from 47%

Looks like Romney was wrong about being wrong about the 47%.

6 posted on 10/06/2012 6:50:26 AM PDT by Raycpa
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To: Cruising For Freedom

That is a very good point. I believe that Ras weights according to a 3-week moving average of party affiliation. That means that there will be automatic D oversampling when people are swinging toward saying “I am an R”.

According to another thread, 20 minutes into the debate, GOP online voter registrations started zooming upward, and that has not yet abated, according to last I heard.


7 posted on 10/06/2012 6:53:30 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: TexasFreeper2009

Coffee?! I need some champagne!!!


8 posted on 10/06/2012 6:54:14 AM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: Raycpa

the independents number is the best news, if Romney goes into election day with a 16% lead over Obama in indies, this race is over.


9 posted on 10/06/2012 6:54:39 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: AFPhys

Just wait until after the Biden Beatdown on Thursday these numbers will look even better.


10 posted on 10/06/2012 6:54:43 AM PDT by erod (This Chicagoan will crawl over broken glass to vote the fake Chicagoan Obama out!)
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To: AFPhys

With Democrat oversampling too.


11 posted on 10/06/2012 6:56:34 AM PDT by DarthVader (Politicians govern out of self interest, Statesmen govern for a Vision greater than themselves)
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To: AFPhys
“Outlier!!”

—MSM so far up Obama’s butt a right turn would break their necks.

12 posted on 10/06/2012 6:56:34 AM PDT by Happy Rain ("Water is wet and Obama is a liar.")
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To: Cruising For Freedom

But, what I always wonder is, with each side at rough parity, and just a slightly different sample for D and R, how can Romney be up ONLY +2 if he gets +16 among undecideds? Is their number that small?


13 posted on 10/06/2012 6:56:59 AM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: AFPhys

Why list Zero first? Odd way to show who’s leading.


14 posted on 10/06/2012 6:57:13 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: AFPhys

Very cool, I hadn’t heard of that. If you can find that thread again, can you ping me to it?

According to another thread, Rasmussen was on O’Reilly on Thursday night expecting Romney to lead by at least 2 by Monday. He said that on Thursday night. Curious thing to say if Monday back then was more than 3 days away and you have a 3-day tracking poll.

I think he was seeing a big surge in R responses and predicting when the R weighting would start showing up, rather than going off by that day’s polling data.


15 posted on 10/06/2012 6:57:36 AM PDT by Cruising For Freedom (Don't be the proof that MSM PsyOps works.)
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To: AFPhys

+16 I for Romney is impressive!


16 posted on 10/06/2012 6:57:40 AM PDT by JPG (Make it happen)
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To: AFPhys

‘Bout damned time scotty!

LLS


17 posted on 10/06/2012 6:58:10 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer ("If it looks like you are not gonna make it you gotta get mean, I mean plumb mad-dog mean" J. Wales)
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To: AFPhys

I meant Independents, not undecided.


18 posted on 10/06/2012 6:59:36 AM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: AFPhys

Not many undecideds remain.


19 posted on 10/06/2012 6:59:45 AM PDT by MNDude (OWS Movement RIP)
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To: MrChips

Rasmussen has been using an increasing D weighting and does not follow his own monthly party affiliation numbers. D+4.5 last time I reverse-engineered the internals which was around last week.

Also, Romney has consistently had moderate leads with independents, so it’s not like it’s a 16-point swing among independents.


20 posted on 10/06/2012 7:02:53 AM PDT by Cruising For Freedom (Don't be the proof that MSM PsyOps works.)
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To: AFPhys

Great news! But why is the Marxist at a 50% approval/49% disapproval rating?


21 posted on 10/06/2012 7:05:01 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: MNDude

I believe that many who say “undecided” are much more swayable than they believe themselves. I bet that a whole load of folks in California are reconsidering their party affiliation given the major ballooning of gas prices this week.


22 posted on 10/06/2012 7:05:26 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: Raycpa

Romney wasn’t wrong to take back the characterization of those who don’t pay federal income taxes as being exactly the same as those who are on the take and will all vote for Obama no matter what. That is my understanding of what he took back, and why Paul Ryan said Mitt was inarticulate in making the point he was trying to make.

You are aware, I’m sure, that many of Obama’s supporters are fatcat liberals, academicians, sports stars, media types, teacher unionists, government workers etc. These people are not low income and they do pay federal income taxes.

You should be aware, if not, that many who don’t pay federal income taxes are the so called working poor or very low middle class, many of whom will be voting for Romney.

You should be aware, if not, that those who don’t pay federal income taxes because they earn too little under the current code, had nothing to do with that code. It was set by politicians. Therefore it says nothing at all about those who don’t pay, under it, because they didn’t cause that.

From the getgo, I said Romney had a point, about too many people being too dependent on the government, but he did not state it correctly and gave many misimpressions.

Ryan knew that, Romney knew that, I knew that.

It’s not the percentage that might vote for Obama that’s wrong, it’s the MAKEUP of it and the characterizing of all who pay no federal income taxes as being on welfare, or all who do pay as being on our side. The facts are at odds with that.

I’m glad Romney and Ryan have tried to straighten it out.

ANd those who refuse to let them straighten it out by continuing to bleat like lost sheep about it aren’t helping, IMO.


23 posted on 10/06/2012 7:06:31 AM PDT by txrangerette ("HOLD TO THE TRUTH...SPEAK WITHOUT FEAR." - Glenn Beck)
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To: Raycpa

I choose to interpret Romney’s apology this way: he had been saying Obama would never get less than 47% of the vote. Now he doesn’t believe that anymore because of his debate performance. Obama *can* get less than 47% of the PV.

Hee...


24 posted on 10/06/2012 7:07:04 AM PDT by Cruising For Freedom (Don't be the proof that MSM PsyOps works.)
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To: MNDude; AFPhys

Undecideds are not necessarily a static group. Both Obama and Romney have a % that include leaners. These leaners can move away from their candidate and become undecided or move to definite. At the same time, the definite voter can move to leaner.


25 posted on 10/06/2012 7:08:06 AM PDT by Raycpa
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To: Cruising For Freedom

I am pretty sure that consultant Joe Trippi is the source for that information (online voter regis.) ... I could be wrong about that. Come to think of it, it was some interview or other, not a thread, where I heard it.


26 posted on 10/06/2012 7:08:22 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: Cruising For Freedom

Odd that he would increase Dem weighting. I wonder why. So, I guess what you are saying is that with more Dems sampled, the +16 among Independents moves the number less. Still, it would seem as if he has decreased Independent weighting, too. No? At the same time, it has seemed odd to me how Mitt can win Independents so regularly in other polls without them seeming to affect the result very much.


27 posted on 10/06/2012 7:09:36 AM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: Cruising For Freedom

This bump is showing up very fast and i think its going to be a lot bigger come Monday because Dems always poll better at weekends also in Rasmussen.

So basically this is a jump from Friday only because the polling on Thursday was automated during the time off the debate, so count Thursdays numbers out but if this was a big boost from Friday alone......a 4 point swing.


28 posted on 10/06/2012 7:10:38 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: sunmars

sorry thursday still had a lot of pro obama averages built in, thats what i meant.


29 posted on 10/06/2012 7:11:35 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: txrangerette
I’m sure, that many of Obama’s supporters are fatcat liberals, academicians, sports stars, media types, teacher unionists, government workers etc. These people are not low income and they do pay federal income taxes.

These folks (except stars who feel guilty) do not consider themselves paying taxes or union dues for that matter. They only understand the net pay they receive and are fully aware that their income is dependent on higher taxes.

30 posted on 10/06/2012 7:11:46 AM PDT by Raycpa
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To: AFPhys

“Romney is supported by 89% of Republicans”

Who are these 11% of Republicans not supporting Romney? How can an elephant, even a drunk one, vote for Obama? How many Colin Powells are out there?


31 posted on 10/06/2012 7:11:51 AM PDT by chuckee
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To: Cruising For Freedom

I think I wrote inaccurately above regarding this. I believe that the way Ras weights the tracking poll is by looking at declared party affiliation of 21 days ago - I suspect some type of rolling average. Right now, that would put him into weighting including the post D-convention bounce. That ought to be working its way out of his system soon.


32 posted on 10/06/2012 7:12:40 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: MNDude
Not many undecideds remain.

That's what somewhat concerns me. I would think Romney would be 6-9 points ahead once the undecideds made up their mind. A two point lead (with 4% left undecided) doesn't leave much margin for error. That factors to a narrow 52-48 or 51-49 margin if the remaining undecideds break 2-1 for Romney. Hopefully some of the Obama supporters are not solid Obama and can still be picked off by Romney. We really need more like a 56-44 Romney margin to produce an electoral mandate.

Of course, where it really matters is at the state level. Hopefully we will start seeing a lot more Rasmussen polls at the state levels.

The Rasmussen polls are the only ones I take seriously, BTW. Thus this little bump is encouraging. The election is exactly one month from today and I already have butterflies in my stomach thinking about it. Good thing I have a two-week trip to Hawaii coming up to take my mind off of it for a while.

33 posted on 10/06/2012 7:14:42 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: chuckee
Who are these 11% of Republicans not supporting Romney?

Many of them can be found right here on FR. You know, the 'principled' ones.

34 posted on 10/06/2012 7:16:26 AM PDT by Right Brother
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To: txrangerette

Well stated post. I don’t think that Romney ever specified what he meant by that “47%” in the tape - it was simply an assumption made by the Dinosaur Media types.


35 posted on 10/06/2012 7:17:15 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: chuckee
Who are these 11% of Republicans not supporting Romney?

Some of them are probably Freepers who are playing mind games with pollsters:

Pollster: Who are you voting for Mr.Freeper.

Freeper: Whats-his-name, you know that guy who is an empty chair. Eastwood's friend.

36 posted on 10/06/2012 7:17:43 AM PDT by Raycpa
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To: nhwingut

LOL -—

I listed Obama first intentionally, to make people read and thing a little. Thanks for confirming that it worked ;^)


37 posted on 10/06/2012 7:18:10 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: sunmars

If Romney ends up winning independents by 16 points, he’ll win the election by double digits.


38 posted on 10/06/2012 7:18:21 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: nhwingut

LOL -—

I listed Obama first intentionally, to make people read and think a little. Thanks for confirming that it worked ;^)


39 posted on 10/06/2012 7:18:38 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: SamAdams76

Romney took a good time to surge as 37 states are now voting by ballot or early voting and Obama took a dive at the wrong time and he cant fix that wrong until 2 weeks in the next debate. The 37 states now open for voting are practically all the ones Romney needs.

As seen here.

http://reed.edu/earlyvoting/calendar/


40 posted on 10/06/2012 7:19:22 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: MrChips

Rasmussen has been increasing Democratic weighting because Republicans aren’t answering the poll calls. According to the rules of polling science, he has to assume that his sample is still representative, and more people really are identifying themselves as Democrats.

(We have good reason to believe that Republicans simply aren’t answering the phone, thus skewing the people who do answer towards the Democratic, but it’s impossible to prove that.)

Let’s say that the breakdown is R33/D33/I33.

If 100% of Rs vote for Romney and 100% of Democrats vote for Obama, and if Independents went 50-50, then the result is 50%R-50%O.

Now let’s assume independents had a 16-point swing and all else were equal.

You’d have Romney = 0%D-100%R-58%I and Obama = 100%D-0%R-42%I. Calculate the total and it’s Romney=52.7% and Obama=47.3%. That’s “only” a 5.4% point swing.

Of course, the reality is that independents are not 33% of the voting electorate and Romney was already leading with them; I am simply positing a “best-case” scenario for independents to speak.


41 posted on 10/06/2012 7:20:51 AM PDT by Cruising For Freedom (Don't be the proof that MSM PsyOps works.)
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To: AFPhys
Photobucket
42 posted on 10/06/2012 7:22:11 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: AFPhys

...hard to believe that there are that many people who support $5/gallon gas and 20% real un/underemployment...


43 posted on 10/06/2012 7:22:11 AM PDT by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: sunmars

I agree. The performance(s) during the debate were striking.

The press keeps relying on the fact that the challenger historically wins the first debate. This may be true, but there is a huge caveat.

What the press is missing (on purpose?) is that never in history has a sitting president, who was hailed as such a intellectual heavyweight, come out looking so bad. And never has a challenger, framed as a goofy, gaffe prone Thurston Howell III caricature, come out looking so presidential.

The media-created images of the two men were the polar opposites of the men on stage. The media, even more than Obama, was shown to be frauds. They (and $150 million in Obama ads) had developed a Hollywood version of Romney - an out of touch Gordon Gecko plutocrat, with a touch of Mormom weirdness. It all blew up in their faces on Wednesday.

I think that is what the Romney camp was counting on all along - and why they held off on advertising, etc. Chris Christie had hinted it by saying, “On Thursday this race will be turned upside down.”

I think Romney takes a lead for good and does not look back. This will be remembered forever. Books will be written based on this moment in time.


44 posted on 10/06/2012 7:22:37 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: sunmars

The weekday vs. weekend polling was on my mind after the debate, while I was discussing things with the friend I viewed it with. It will be nice when next Thursday finally gets here so we can see a full week’s worth of numbers.


45 posted on 10/06/2012 7:23:14 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: AFPhys

You scared the crap out of me. I hadn’t had my 3rd cup of Joe yet. :)


46 posted on 10/06/2012 7:23:32 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: Raycpa; AFPhys

Facts are stubborn things.

From the getgo, I said that Romney made a valid point, one that America needs to hear, in that video clip, but that he conflated (mixed together apples and oranges) some things that were inaccurate and not helpful to the point that needs to be made, which is, too many people have become too dependent on government.

In my post you have responded to, I laid out just some of the facts that show that he did conflate things he should not have conflated because it gave misimpressions and inaccuracies that unnecessarily confused the truth and raised the hackles of many.

I stand by my post.

Because it contains the very truths that cause Romney and Ryan to try clearing up the confusion caused by Mitt’s wrongly stated point.

Again, right point, wrongly put.


47 posted on 10/06/2012 7:25:22 AM PDT by txrangerette ("HOLD TO THE TRUTH...SPEAK WITHOUT FEAR." - Glenn Beck)
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To: AFPhys
Photobucket
48 posted on 10/06/2012 7:26:49 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: profit_guy

Just ‘eye balling’ the breakdown, I’d have to believe that Ras is weighting his turnout model to something like D+7 or D+8. There is no way it is D+4 when Romney attracts more D’s than Obama does R’s and Independents fall to Romney by 16 points!


49 posted on 10/06/2012 7:27:58 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: nhwingut

Excellent analysis, I think, especially your third and fourth paragraphs.


50 posted on 10/06/2012 7:28:39 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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