Skip to comments.Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Rasmussen) - O:47%, R:49%, 'other':2%
Posted on 10/06/2012 6:44:28 AM PDT by AFPhys
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.
These results are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, only about two-thirds of the interviews for todays update were conducted after the presidential debate. Sunday mornings update will be the first national polling based entirely upon post-debate interviews.
Still, the numbers reflect quite a debate bounce for Romney. Heading into Wednesdays showdown, it was the president who enjoyed a two-point advantage. Today is the first time Romney has been ahead by even a single point since mid-September. See daily tracking history. As with all bounces, it remains to be seen whether it is a temporary blip or signals a lasting change in the race.
Both men have solidified their partisan base. Romney is supported by 89% of Republicans and Obama by 88% of Democrats. Among those not affiliated with either major party, Romney leads by 16.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Great news! But why is the Marxist at a 50% approval/49% disapproval rating?
I believe that many who say “undecided” are much more swayable than they believe themselves. I bet that a whole load of folks in California are reconsidering their party affiliation given the major ballooning of gas prices this week.
Romney wasn’t wrong to take back the characterization of those who don’t pay federal income taxes as being exactly the same as those who are on the take and will all vote for Obama no matter what. That is my understanding of what he took back, and why Paul Ryan said Mitt was inarticulate in making the point he was trying to make.
You are aware, I’m sure, that many of Obama’s supporters are fatcat liberals, academicians, sports stars, media types, teacher unionists, government workers etc. These people are not low income and they do pay federal income taxes.
You should be aware, if not, that many who don’t pay federal income taxes are the so called working poor or very low middle class, many of whom will be voting for Romney.
You should be aware, if not, that those who don’t pay federal income taxes because they earn too little under the current code, had nothing to do with that code. It was set by politicians. Therefore it says nothing at all about those who don’t pay, under it, because they didn’t cause that.
From the getgo, I said Romney had a point, about too many people being too dependent on the government, but he did not state it correctly and gave many misimpressions.
Ryan knew that, Romney knew that, I knew that.
It’s not the percentage that might vote for Obama that’s wrong, it’s the MAKEUP of it and the characterizing of all who pay no federal income taxes as being on welfare, or all who do pay as being on our side. The facts are at odds with that.
I’m glad Romney and Ryan have tried to straighten it out.
ANd those who refuse to let them straighten it out by continuing to bleat like lost sheep about it aren’t helping, IMO.
I choose to interpret Romney’s apology this way: he had been saying Obama would never get less than 47% of the vote. Now he doesn’t believe that anymore because of his debate performance. Obama *can* get less than 47% of the PV.
Undecideds are not necessarily a static group. Both Obama and Romney have a % that include leaners. These leaners can move away from their candidate and become undecided or move to definite. At the same time, the definite voter can move to leaner.
I am pretty sure that consultant Joe Trippi is the source for that information (online voter regis.) ... I could be wrong about that. Come to think of it, it was some interview or other, not a thread, where I heard it.
Odd that he would increase Dem weighting. I wonder why. So, I guess what you are saying is that with more Dems sampled, the +16 among Independents moves the number less. Still, it would seem as if he has decreased Independent weighting, too. No? At the same time, it has seemed odd to me how Mitt can win Independents so regularly in other polls without them seeming to affect the result very much.
This bump is showing up very fast and i think its going to be a lot bigger come Monday because Dems always poll better at weekends also in Rasmussen.
So basically this is a jump from Friday only because the polling on Thursday was automated during the time off the debate, so count Thursdays numbers out but if this was a big boost from Friday alone......a 4 point swing.
sorry thursday still had a lot of pro obama averages built in, thats what i meant.
These folks (except stars who feel guilty) do not consider themselves paying taxes or union dues for that matter. They only understand the net pay they receive and are fully aware that their income is dependent on higher taxes.
“Romney is supported by 89% of Republicans”
Who are these 11% of Republicans not supporting Romney? How can an elephant, even a drunk one, vote for Obama? How many Colin Powells are out there?
I think I wrote inaccurately above regarding this. I believe that the way Ras weights the tracking poll is by looking at declared party affiliation of 21 days ago - I suspect some type of rolling average. Right now, that would put him into weighting including the post D-convention bounce. That ought to be working its way out of his system soon.
That's what somewhat concerns me. I would think Romney would be 6-9 points ahead once the undecideds made up their mind. A two point lead (with 4% left undecided) doesn't leave much margin for error. That factors to a narrow 52-48 or 51-49 margin if the remaining undecideds break 2-1 for Romney. Hopefully some of the Obama supporters are not solid Obama and can still be picked off by Romney. We really need more like a 56-44 Romney margin to produce an electoral mandate.
Of course, where it really matters is at the state level. Hopefully we will start seeing a lot more Rasmussen polls at the state levels.
The Rasmussen polls are the only ones I take seriously, BTW. Thus this little bump is encouraging. The election is exactly one month from today and I already have butterflies in my stomach thinking about it. Good thing I have a two-week trip to Hawaii coming up to take my mind off of it for a while.
Many of them can be found right here on FR. You know, the 'principled' ones.
Well stated post. I don’t think that Romney ever specified what he meant by that “47%” in the tape - it was simply an assumption made by the Dinosaur Media types.
Some of them are probably Freepers who are playing mind games with pollsters:
Pollster: Who are you voting for Mr.Freeper.
Freeper: Whats-his-name, you know that guy who is an empty chair. Eastwood's friend.
I listed Obama first intentionally, to make people read and thing a little. Thanks for confirming that it worked ;^)
If Romney ends up winning independents by 16 points, he’ll win the election by double digits.
I listed Obama first intentionally, to make people read and think a little. Thanks for confirming that it worked ;^)
Romney took a good time to surge as 37 states are now voting by ballot or early voting and Obama took a dive at the wrong time and he cant fix that wrong until 2 weeks in the next debate. The 37 states now open for voting are practically all the ones Romney needs.
As seen here.
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