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Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Rasmussen) - O:47%, R:49%, 'other':2%
Rasmussen ^ | Oct. 6, 2012 | Rasmussen

Posted on 10/06/2012 6:44:28 AM PDT by AFPhys

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

These results are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, only about two-thirds of the interviews for today’s update were conducted after the presidential debate. Sunday morning’s update will be the first national polling based entirely upon post-debate interviews.

Still, the numbers reflect quite a debate bounce for Romney. Heading into Wednesday’s showdown, it was the president who enjoyed a two-point advantage. Today is the first time Romney has been ahead by even a single point since mid-September. See daily tracking history. As with all bounces, it remains to be seen whether it is a temporary blip or signals a lasting change in the race.

Both men have solidified their partisan base. Romney is supported by 89% of Republicans and Obama by 88% of Democrats. Among those not affiliated with either major party, Romney leads by 16.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; polls
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To: chuckee
Who are these 11% of Republicans not supporting Romney? How can an elephant, even a drunk one, vote for Obama? How many Colin Powells are out there?

I suspect some of those 11% are Republicans who see Romney as too liberal and will vote libertarian or skip the presidential part of the ballot this year.

51 posted on 10/06/2012 7:30:34 AM PDT by AndyTheBear
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To: profit_guy

15% of black vote? I mean thats not a lot, but I thought it was only around 10% in 2008 for McCain wasn’t it?


52 posted on 10/06/2012 7:32:47 AM PDT by AndyTheBear
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To: profit_guy

Looks like from those crosstabs that Romney is doing much better with Hispanics than Obama can afford.


53 posted on 10/06/2012 7:33:12 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: BlueStateRightist

Because those numbers are bogus just like the unemployment numbers....


54 posted on 10/06/2012 7:33:24 AM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: Raycpa
Those that get 100% of their gross income from the government sector ( Fed, State, or local) couldn't give a $hit less if they have some taken back in higher taxes.

For them, higher taxes means their union can demand pay raises, and 20% less of more is still 80% MORE!

55 posted on 10/06/2012 7:33:44 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: AndyTheBear

You are correct...there are a number of Christians, primarily in the south; who will not vote for Romney because he is seen as too liberal or the fact that he is Mormon. That’s just the way it is...


56 posted on 10/06/2012 7:33:44 AM PDT by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: Cruising For Freedom

Thank you for all the math! I am a Latin teacher, not a math guy! But, from your numbers, I can now extrapolate a general rule for myself: that in a perfect 33/33/33 model with parity between D & R, a 16 point advantage among Independents would only mean a 5 or 6 point move. So a sample of 20% Independents would move things only 2 or 3 points. So, with a +4 Dem sample (which well may not hold), a +2 lead for Mitt is pretty damned good!


57 posted on 10/06/2012 7:34:30 AM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: who knows what evil?

I personally think Mormons are sort of goofy.

BUT

I would crawl over broken glass to kiss Mitt’s magic underware at this point!

GO ROMNEY!


58 posted on 10/06/2012 7:36:45 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama lied .. the economy died.)
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To: profit_guy

Wow.


59 posted on 10/06/2012 7:37:29 AM PDT by rwilson99 (Please tell me how the words "shall not perish and have everlasting life" would NOT apply to Mary.)
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To: tatown

Depends on the size of the sample of Independents.


60 posted on 10/06/2012 7:38:41 AM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: AndyTheBear

That 14% black is getting pretty close to the number that is needed for the logjam to break. When blacks in their own communities start to fearlessly support a Republican, the Dems are cooked. Something on the order of 20-25% is probably near that threshhold.


61 posted on 10/06/2012 7:41:12 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: profit_guy
What are those moments in history, or pictures, or icons that stick in Americans memory ? .....

This: The New Yorker edition will stay with American political election folklore forever no matter how much the MSM and this administration tries to sweep it under the carpet.

A Iconic moment for the ages in political history...
62 posted on 10/06/2012 7:42:09 AM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: MrChips

You got it :o)

Now I know who to ask if I want to be all cool and smart by saying things in Latin!


63 posted on 10/06/2012 7:43:36 AM PDT by Cruising For Freedom (Don't be the proof that MSM PsyOps works.)
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To: nhwingut

Excellent points...well written.


64 posted on 10/06/2012 7:44:13 AM PDT by Blue Turtle
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To: MrChips

Independents were 29% in 2008 and their ranks have grown considerably since then (where do you think the D’s have gone?). Any model that has I’s at less than 30% would be highly suspect.

Furthermore, Romney is getting a bigger % of R’s than Obama is of D’s. Romney is also getting 2 percentage points more of D’s than Obama is of R’s.

All in all, Rasmussen’s numbers seem to suggest something like a D+7.


65 posted on 10/06/2012 7:44:26 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: AFPhys

O B A M A P H O N E S


66 posted on 10/06/2012 7:45:09 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: Beagle8U

sidebar to the thread, but for that reason, I would support a ruling that those who work for the Federal government should not be allowed a vote.


67 posted on 10/06/2012 7:45:24 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: AFPhys

Still too tight.


68 posted on 10/06/2012 7:48:07 AM PDT by Moorings
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To: AFPhys
Dims discombobulated....Axelrod axed, Plouffe pooped and Jarret jaded....... loud ululations from all their girlymen

When only a Presidential "Face Palm" will suffice.

Ha..he can't even manage a decent "face palm"....send him back to Harvard to retake FacePalm 101

69 posted on 10/06/2012 7:49:28 AM PDT by spokeshave (The only people better off today than 4 years ago are the Prisoners at Guantanamo.)
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To: AFPhys
I would support a ruling that those who work for the Federal government should not be allowed a vote.

I'm good with allowing them 3/5's .

70 posted on 10/06/2012 7:54:40 AM PDT by Raycpa
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To: MrChips

Using a D+7 model (37D/30R/33I):

Romney 37(0.1)+30(0.89)+33(0.54) ~49

Obama 37(0.88)+30(0.8)+33(0.38) ~48

Assuming the I number is close to being right, I would suggest to me that Ras is in the ballpark of D+6 to D+8.


71 posted on 10/06/2012 7:56:43 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: Raycpa

LOL


72 posted on 10/06/2012 7:56:49 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: tatown

Thanks for doing that. Sounds reasonable. Wait until the more accurate numbers get mixed in!

Time for me to go on to my day. Y’all have fun here!


73 posted on 10/06/2012 7:59:04 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: tatown; profit_guy

If my reverse-engineering using profit_guy’s internals is correct, Rasmussen’s party ID breakdown is:

39.3%D 34.4%R 26.6%I

Rasmussen is using a +5D model.


74 posted on 10/06/2012 8:00:13 AM PDT by Cruising For Freedom (Don't be the proof that MSM PsyOps works.)
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To: Cruising For Freedom

I can’t imagine only 26.6% independents. That is considerably lower than 2008, while the ranks of independents has grown since then.


75 posted on 10/06/2012 8:04:07 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: nhwingut

Excellent analysis!

An interesting polling note is that Rasmussen has Romney almost tied in the Electoral College, if toss ups are allocated by the current polls - http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard

Safe or likely Romney totals 181. Safe or likely Obama totals 237. There are no states that “lean” either way. In the 120 “toss up” EV states, Obama leads for NV’s 6 votes, WI’s 10 votes, and OH’s 18 votes. That takes Obama to 271 over Romney’s 267, a very narrow loss for America - on polls that in many cases are pre-debate.


76 posted on 10/06/2012 8:04:13 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: tatown

As has been posted on FR lately, response rates are way down. Only 9% response rate where it had been 38% in 2008 previously.

IMO, pollsters are overplaying their hand this election, and flooding too many people with too many calls, to the point where they have alienated a large segment. The people who do have time are, speculatively, those who lean Democrat.

But, Rasmussen has to assume by the rules of polling science that the people who do answer his calls are still representative of the voting segment, because it is impossible to prove the makeup of people who won’t be polled.


77 posted on 10/06/2012 8:10:12 AM PDT by Cruising For Freedom (Don't be the proof that MSM PsyOps works.)
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To: AFPhys

Obama is still slightly up in the electoral count on Rasmussen, but the gap has closed considerably.

It looks like about 271 Obama and 267 Romney when all toss-ups are given to the current state leader per Rasmussen’s numbers.

Obama is ahead in Nevada 6, Wisconsin 10, and Ohio 18.

If he loses any of those, he loses the election. If he wins all 3, he wins the election.

The most likely Romney win will be in Ohio, but it will also be the costliest.

This is only based on the numbers Rasmussen is showing now. I imagine Rasmussen will come out with new numbers on those states based on post-debate polling.


78 posted on 10/06/2012 8:14:41 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins

I think the people who do still support Obama are hoping that he had just one bad night. Romney put Obama on the floor but has not yet delivered the finishing blow.

IMO, Romney has tied the race. If Romney delivers another KO punch, a landslide may really happen.


79 posted on 10/06/2012 8:17:47 AM PDT by Cruising For Freedom (Don't be the proof that MSM PsyOps works.)
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To: AFPhys
I wish the Republicans would more aggressively go after the black vote - instead of writing them off to the Democrats. I mean, what the hell have Democrats done for the black people other than enslave them with institutionalized welfare and food stamps and forcing them to live in poor neighborhoods where crime and drugs are rampant, and a huge percentage of their young people either get caught up in the prison system (males) or get knocked up at a young age (females).

It really is an unspeakable tragedy - to see what the so-called "caring" liberals have done to our black people.

It's not going to be an easy road but the Republicans have nothing to lose by offering them a more positive and uplifting message. Show them how their lives can be improved by getting off welfare and entering the workforce or starting their own businesses. Then make it happen through serious welfare reform and making it financially more attractive to work a job (or start a business) than to collect a government welfare check.

This means that Republicans are going to have to stop walking on eggshells and tell it like it really is. Sure, they will at first get hammered by the Al Sharpton types and the media. But a lot of black people will respond to such a message and slowly, the Republicans and conservatism will win more and more of the black vote because they will offer a better way of life.

We already have some great black leaders on our side of the fence. Allen West, Thomas Sowell, Herman Cain, Condoleeza Rice, Clarence Thomas, JC Watts, to name a few. Let's build on that.

As a conservative, I'm tired of seeing the black people being written off and it pains me to see the way of life so many of them are forced into by misguided liberal policies.

80 posted on 10/06/2012 8:17:56 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: chuckee

Many like me, when polled, still have the luxury of voting “other”. Come election day, there’s but one choice.

Vote out Obama.


81 posted on 10/06/2012 8:18:06 AM PDT by bleach (If I agreed with you, we would both be wrong.)
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To: sunmars

>> Dems always poll better at weekends also in Rasmussen <<

Correct — strictly speaking — but it’s basically irrelevant to the discussion at hand, because Rasmussen always adjusts his results to eliminate the “weekend effect.”

(He also adjusts his numbers, by the way, to eliminate factors like the bias arising from the problem that eldery people are much more likely than young people to answer a landline phone.)


82 posted on 10/06/2012 8:18:19 AM PDT by Hawthorn
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To: AFPhys

2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, IA OR NV = 272EV


83 posted on 10/06/2012 8:18:40 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, IA OR NV = 272EV)
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To: Hawthorn

The adjustments aren’t necessarily correct.


84 posted on 10/06/2012 8:24:12 AM PDT by Henry Hnyellar
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To: StAnDeliver

Ohio is the key.

Whoever wins it, wins the whole thing.


85 posted on 10/06/2012 8:25:52 AM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: SamAdams76

I’m a member of a minority demographic that is statistically worse off than blacks. I can’t speak for blacks, but I can speak from observations with my own demographic.

IMO, nothing will change their mindsets or votes except cold turkey withdrawal from government dependence. There is just too much pressure for the status quo otherwise, plus you always get more of what you subsidize. Stop subsidizing, and you’ll get less of what you subsidize (poverty, out-of-wedlock pregnancies, etc), almost like magic.


86 posted on 10/06/2012 8:26:10 AM PDT by Cruising For Freedom (Don't be the proof that MSM PsyOps works.)
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To: Cruising For Freedom

I know they think Obama had a bad night, and that he somehow was not as good as he normally is.

I don’t believe that. I think his looking down, his long pauses, his drawn out “aaaannds” and his clipped pauses mid—sentences are exactly who he has always been.

I believe the media is hoping for a huge showing by Joe Biden this week. Anything close to a draw with Ryan will be painted by the media as if it were Obama himself performing. I remember Joe Biden making up stats from thin air continually in his debate with Palin. He’s very very good at making stuff up and simply going on. (One was his statement that we’d spent more in a week/month in Iraq than we had in all of the Afghan war at the time....the war the dems considered the good war.)

Obama, on the other hand, will have to undergo a complete personality and style change to “be” different in Debate #2 with Romney. I believe they’ll continue to pound the “5 trillion tax cut” theme, although Romney has never said other than a revenue-neutral 20% cut for the middle class. That could be lower middle and middle middle and still be true, and since the lower middle is responsible for very little tax at all, it wouldn’t be hard to make it revenue neutral.


87 posted on 10/06/2012 8:30:13 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: Cruising For Freedom

>> Rasmussen has to assume by the rules of polling science that the people who do answer his calls are still representative <<

No, he doesn’t assume they are totally representative, and as a result, he makes many “adjustments” to the raw numbers.


88 posted on 10/06/2012 8:35:40 AM PDT by Hawthorn
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To: txrangerette

From the getgo, I said Romney had a point, about too many people being too dependent on the government, but he did not state it correctly and gave many misimpressions.


What we don’t know is what was not shown on the tape. I’ve seen posts indicating that it is edited, and doesn’t include the context of the lead in to the
47%.

Also, we shouldn’t forget this was a $50,000 a plate event.

I don’t think many of us would want those donors to feel we were targeting monies to people who rightly will support O regardless of what he says or does.


89 posted on 10/06/2012 8:36:15 AM PDT by patriotspride
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To: AFPhys

Is 49% Romney’s high water mark with Ras?

I don’t remember him ever getting to the magical 50%, but I could be wrong.


90 posted on 10/06/2012 8:38:00 AM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Henry Hnyellar

>> The adjustments aren’t necessarily correct. <<

Well, one can also say that they aren’t “necessarily” incorrect. So there!


91 posted on 10/06/2012 8:38:54 AM PDT by Hawthorn
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To: AFPhys
Who is the other? Gary Johnson? I heard him on an interview yesterday morning. I do like what he says. However, this election is waaaay to important to mess around with voting third party. Though, here in Arizona, I could probably afford to play around with that idea. I won't though.

I do feel like the establishment has limited my choices, ofcourse, as they always do. But like someone on here said, (Laz, I believe) all Romney really offers is an extension and I want that extension. (paraphrasing)

92 posted on 10/06/2012 8:40:43 AM PDT by riri (Plannedopolis-look it up. It's how the elites plan for US to live.)
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To: profit_guy
Thanks for posting the chart. I'm not so concerned about the approval/disapproval numbers since people have found Obama to be "like-able." I don't see how that is, but in poll after poll his "like-ability" remains strong.

The stat that jumps out at me is the right direction vs. wrong direction. That's a huge gap, and in the voting booth, the people who find Obama like-able aren't going to pull the lever for him if they believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. This is also why undecideds will break for Romney big time.

93 posted on 10/06/2012 8:46:25 AM PDT by Mase (Save me from the people who would save me from myself!)
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To: TornadoAlley3
O B A M A P H O N E S

IMHO this and all the other ways this clown in purchasing votes, is what will land him a 2nd term and the opportunity of finishing his destruction of the free market capitalistic system the he abhors.
94 posted on 10/06/2012 8:46:38 AM PDT by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
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To: riri

Gary Johnson? The dude came out in support of the Occupy movement. He supports the legalization of weed and gay marriage. He states Iran is no great threat to our national security and wants to cut our military in half. Off the rails on national defense and social issues.


95 posted on 10/06/2012 9:08:17 AM PDT by NoobRep
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To: nhwingut

Yes, odd for most, but this media goes by its own ever changing rules.


96 posted on 10/06/2012 9:15:17 AM PDT by stanne
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To: AFPhys
Among those not affiliated with either major party, Romney leads by 16

If Obama is playing rope a dope as the Left claims the dope he roped is himself.

97 posted on 10/06/2012 9:19:51 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: Happy Rain

Happy Rain wrote:
<<
MSM so far up Obama’s butt a right turn would break their necks.
>>

**************************************************************

LOL! Best line of the day I’ve heard so far!


98 posted on 10/06/2012 9:23:05 AM PDT by DestroyLiberalism
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To: txrangerette

I have three adult children and the youngest will be casting her first vote this year. None make enough to pay income taxes, yet they are conservative as you come.

One is in ministry.
One is a marine.
One is a wonderful young high school girl, completely devoted to her Lord and Savior.

All three support Romney.


99 posted on 10/06/2012 9:24:46 AM PDT by keats5 (Not all of us are hypnotized.)
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To: NoobRep

He was basically taking taxes and monetary stuff in this interview and I agreed with everything he said. I really want the government so small, inconsequential and out of my life as if could ever be. Especially my out of money.


100 posted on 10/06/2012 9:25:41 AM PDT by riri (Plannedopolis-look it up. It's how the elites plan for US to live.)
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