Skip to comments.Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Rasmussen) - O:47%, R:49%, 'other':2%
Posted on 10/06/2012 6:44:28 AM PDT by AFPhys
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And one of those three days was being the debate :)
being = before
I need some coffee
Just a bit? *wink*
Rasmussen doesn’t do big swings very well because they weight their party affiliations. A one-day 4-point swing when the debate has not even been baked in yet is gigantic.
Yes... and I think that Ras had 0bama (aka Zero, -bama, Minusbama, etc...) up by 50-47 the day before the debate, if I recall correctly. This is a huge difference.
Looks like Romney was wrong about being wrong about the 47%.
That is a very good point. I believe that Ras weights according to a 3-week moving average of party affiliation. That means that there will be automatic D oversampling when people are swinging toward saying “I am an R”.
According to another thread, 20 minutes into the debate, GOP online voter registrations started zooming upward, and that has not yet abated, according to last I heard.
Coffee?! I need some champagne!!!
the independents number is the best news, if Romney goes into election day with a 16% lead over Obama in indies, this race is over.
Just wait until after the Biden Beatdown on Thursday these numbers will look even better.
With Democrat oversampling too.
—MSM so far up Obama’s butt a right turn would break their necks.
But, what I always wonder is, with each side at rough parity, and just a slightly different sample for D and R, how can Romney be up ONLY +2 if he gets +16 among undecideds? Is their number that small?
Why list Zero first? Odd way to show who’s leading.
Very cool, I hadn’t heard of that. If you can find that thread again, can you ping me to it?
According to another thread, Rasmussen was on O’Reilly on Thursday night expecting Romney to lead by at least 2 by Monday. He said that on Thursday night. Curious thing to say if Monday back then was more than 3 days away and you have a 3-day tracking poll.
I think he was seeing a big surge in R responses and predicting when the R weighting would start showing up, rather than going off by that day’s polling data.
+16 I for Romney is impressive!
‘Bout damned time scotty!
I meant Independents, not undecided.
Not many undecideds remain.
Rasmussen has been using an increasing D weighting and does not follow his own monthly party affiliation numbers. D+4.5 last time I reverse-engineered the internals which was around last week.
Also, Romney has consistently had moderate leads with independents, so it’s not like it’s a 16-point swing among independents.
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