Skip to comments.Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Rasmussen) - O:47%, R:49%, 'other':2%
Posted on 10/06/2012 6:44:28 AM PDT by AFPhys
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And one of those three days was being the debate :)
being = before
I need some coffee
Just a bit? *wink*
Rasmussen doesn’t do big swings very well because they weight their party affiliations. A one-day 4-point swing when the debate has not even been baked in yet is gigantic.
Yes... and I think that Ras had 0bama (aka Zero, -bama, Minusbama, etc...) up by 50-47 the day before the debate, if I recall correctly. This is a huge difference.
Looks like Romney was wrong about being wrong about the 47%.
That is a very good point. I believe that Ras weights according to a 3-week moving average of party affiliation. That means that there will be automatic D oversampling when people are swinging toward saying “I am an R”.
According to another thread, 20 minutes into the debate, GOP online voter registrations started zooming upward, and that has not yet abated, according to last I heard.
Coffee?! I need some champagne!!!
the independents number is the best news, if Romney goes into election day with a 16% lead over Obama in indies, this race is over.
Just wait until after the Biden Beatdown on Thursday these numbers will look even better.
With Democrat oversampling too.
—MSM so far up Obama’s butt a right turn would break their necks.
But, what I always wonder is, with each side at rough parity, and just a slightly different sample for D and R, how can Romney be up ONLY +2 if he gets +16 among undecideds? Is their number that small?
Why list Zero first? Odd way to show who’s leading.
Very cool, I hadn’t heard of that. If you can find that thread again, can you ping me to it?
According to another thread, Rasmussen was on O’Reilly on Thursday night expecting Romney to lead by at least 2 by Monday. He said that on Thursday night. Curious thing to say if Monday back then was more than 3 days away and you have a 3-day tracking poll.
I think he was seeing a big surge in R responses and predicting when the R weighting would start showing up, rather than going off by that day’s polling data.
+16 I for Romney is impressive!
‘Bout damned time scotty!
I meant Independents, not undecided.
Not many undecideds remain.
Rasmussen has been using an increasing D weighting and does not follow his own monthly party affiliation numbers. D+4.5 last time I reverse-engineered the internals which was around last week.
Also, Romney has consistently had moderate leads with independents, so it’s not like it’s a 16-point swing among independents.
Great news! But why is the Marxist at a 50% approval/49% disapproval rating?
I believe that many who say “undecided” are much more swayable than they believe themselves. I bet that a whole load of folks in California are reconsidering their party affiliation given the major ballooning of gas prices this week.
Romney wasn’t wrong to take back the characterization of those who don’t pay federal income taxes as being exactly the same as those who are on the take and will all vote for Obama no matter what. That is my understanding of what he took back, and why Paul Ryan said Mitt was inarticulate in making the point he was trying to make.
You are aware, I’m sure, that many of Obama’s supporters are fatcat liberals, academicians, sports stars, media types, teacher unionists, government workers etc. These people are not low income and they do pay federal income taxes.
You should be aware, if not, that many who don’t pay federal income taxes are the so called working poor or very low middle class, many of whom will be voting for Romney.
You should be aware, if not, that those who don’t pay federal income taxes because they earn too little under the current code, had nothing to do with that code. It was set by politicians. Therefore it says nothing at all about those who don’t pay, under it, because they didn’t cause that.
From the getgo, I said Romney had a point, about too many people being too dependent on the government, but he did not state it correctly and gave many misimpressions.
Ryan knew that, Romney knew that, I knew that.
It’s not the percentage that might vote for Obama that’s wrong, it’s the MAKEUP of it and the characterizing of all who pay no federal income taxes as being on welfare, or all who do pay as being on our side. The facts are at odds with that.
I’m glad Romney and Ryan have tried to straighten it out.
ANd those who refuse to let them straighten it out by continuing to bleat like lost sheep about it aren’t helping, IMO.
I choose to interpret Romney’s apology this way: he had been saying Obama would never get less than 47% of the vote. Now he doesn’t believe that anymore because of his debate performance. Obama *can* get less than 47% of the PV.
Undecideds are not necessarily a static group. Both Obama and Romney have a % that include leaners. These leaners can move away from their candidate and become undecided or move to definite. At the same time, the definite voter can move to leaner.
I am pretty sure that consultant Joe Trippi is the source for that information (online voter regis.) ... I could be wrong about that. Come to think of it, it was some interview or other, not a thread, where I heard it.
Odd that he would increase Dem weighting. I wonder why. So, I guess what you are saying is that with more Dems sampled, the +16 among Independents moves the number less. Still, it would seem as if he has decreased Independent weighting, too. No? At the same time, it has seemed odd to me how Mitt can win Independents so regularly in other polls without them seeming to affect the result very much.
This bump is showing up very fast and i think its going to be a lot bigger come Monday because Dems always poll better at weekends also in Rasmussen.
So basically this is a jump from Friday only because the polling on Thursday was automated during the time off the debate, so count Thursdays numbers out but if this was a big boost from Friday alone......a 4 point swing.
sorry thursday still had a lot of pro obama averages built in, thats what i meant.
These folks (except stars who feel guilty) do not consider themselves paying taxes or union dues for that matter. They only understand the net pay they receive and are fully aware that their income is dependent on higher taxes.
“Romney is supported by 89% of Republicans”
Who are these 11% of Republicans not supporting Romney? How can an elephant, even a drunk one, vote for Obama? How many Colin Powells are out there?
I think I wrote inaccurately above regarding this. I believe that the way Ras weights the tracking poll is by looking at declared party affiliation of 21 days ago - I suspect some type of rolling average. Right now, that would put him into weighting including the post D-convention bounce. That ought to be working its way out of his system soon.
That's what somewhat concerns me. I would think Romney would be 6-9 points ahead once the undecideds made up their mind. A two point lead (with 4% left undecided) doesn't leave much margin for error. That factors to a narrow 52-48 or 51-49 margin if the remaining undecideds break 2-1 for Romney. Hopefully some of the Obama supporters are not solid Obama and can still be picked off by Romney. We really need more like a 56-44 Romney margin to produce an electoral mandate.
Of course, where it really matters is at the state level. Hopefully we will start seeing a lot more Rasmussen polls at the state levels.
The Rasmussen polls are the only ones I take seriously, BTW. Thus this little bump is encouraging. The election is exactly one month from today and I already have butterflies in my stomach thinking about it. Good thing I have a two-week trip to Hawaii coming up to take my mind off of it for a while.
Many of them can be found right here on FR. You know, the 'principled' ones.
Well stated post. I don’t think that Romney ever specified what he meant by that “47%” in the tape - it was simply an assumption made by the Dinosaur Media types.
Some of them are probably Freepers who are playing mind games with pollsters:
Pollster: Who are you voting for Mr.Freeper.
Freeper: Whats-his-name, you know that guy who is an empty chair. Eastwood's friend.
I listed Obama first intentionally, to make people read and thing a little. Thanks for confirming that it worked ;^)
If Romney ends up winning independents by 16 points, he’ll win the election by double digits.
I listed Obama first intentionally, to make people read and think a little. Thanks for confirming that it worked ;^)
Romney took a good time to surge as 37 states are now voting by ballot or early voting and Obama took a dive at the wrong time and he cant fix that wrong until 2 weeks in the next debate. The 37 states now open for voting are practically all the ones Romney needs.
As seen here.
Rasmussen has been increasing Democratic weighting because Republicans aren’t answering the poll calls. According to the rules of polling science, he has to assume that his sample is still representative, and more people really are identifying themselves as Democrats.
(We have good reason to believe that Republicans simply aren’t answering the phone, thus skewing the people who do answer towards the Democratic, but it’s impossible to prove that.)
Let’s say that the breakdown is R33/D33/I33.
If 100% of Rs vote for Romney and 100% of Democrats vote for Obama, and if Independents went 50-50, then the result is 50%R-50%O.
Now let’s assume independents had a 16-point swing and all else were equal.
You’d have Romney = 0%D-100%R-58%I and Obama = 100%D-0%R-42%I. Calculate the total and it’s Romney=52.7% and Obama=47.3%. That’s “only” a 5.4% point swing.
Of course, the reality is that independents are not 33% of the voting electorate and Romney was already leading with them; I am simply positing a “best-case” scenario for independents to speak.
...hard to believe that there are that many people who support $5/gallon gas and 20% real un/underemployment...
I agree. The performance(s) during the debate were striking.
The press keeps relying on the fact that the challenger historically wins the first debate. This may be true, but there is a huge caveat.
What the press is missing (on purpose?) is that never in history has a sitting president, who was hailed as such a intellectual heavyweight, come out looking so bad. And never has a challenger, framed as a goofy, gaffe prone Thurston Howell III caricature, come out looking so presidential.
The media-created images of the two men were the polar opposites of the men on stage. The media, even more than Obama, was shown to be frauds. They (and $150 million in Obama ads) had developed a Hollywood version of Romney - an out of touch Gordon Gecko plutocrat, with a touch of Mormom weirdness. It all blew up in their faces on Wednesday.
I think that is what the Romney camp was counting on all along - and why they held off on advertising, etc. Chris Christie had hinted it by saying, “On Thursday this race will be turned upside down.”
I think Romney takes a lead for good and does not look back. This will be remembered forever. Books will be written based on this moment in time.
The weekday vs. weekend polling was on my mind after the debate, while I was discussing things with the friend I viewed it with. It will be nice when next Thursday finally gets here so we can see a full week’s worth of numbers.
You scared the crap out of me. I hadn’t had my 3rd cup of Joe yet. :)
Facts are stubborn things.
From the getgo, I said that Romney made a valid point, one that America needs to hear, in that video clip, but that he conflated (mixed together apples and oranges) some things that were inaccurate and not helpful to the point that needs to be made, which is, too many people have become too dependent on government.
In my post you have responded to, I laid out just some of the facts that show that he did conflate things he should not have conflated because it gave misimpressions and inaccuracies that unnecessarily confused the truth and raised the hackles of many.
I stand by my post.
Because it contains the very truths that cause Romney and Ryan to try clearing up the confusion caused by Mitt’s wrongly stated point.
Again, right point, wrongly put.
Just ‘eye balling’ the breakdown, I’d have to believe that Ras is weighting his turnout model to something like D+7 or D+8. There is no way it is D+4 when Romney attracts more D’s than Obama does R’s and Independents fall to Romney by 16 points!
Excellent analysis, I think, especially your third and fourth paragraphs.