Skip to comments.Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Rasmussen) - O:47%, R:49%, 'other':2%
Posted on 10/06/2012 6:44:28 AM PDT by AFPhys
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Rasmussen has been increasing Democratic weighting because Republicans aren’t answering the poll calls. According to the rules of polling science, he has to assume that his sample is still representative, and more people really are identifying themselves as Democrats.
(We have good reason to believe that Republicans simply aren’t answering the phone, thus skewing the people who do answer towards the Democratic, but it’s impossible to prove that.)
Let’s say that the breakdown is R33/D33/I33.
If 100% of Rs vote for Romney and 100% of Democrats vote for Obama, and if Independents went 50-50, then the result is 50%R-50%O.
Now let’s assume independents had a 16-point swing and all else were equal.
You’d have Romney = 0%D-100%R-58%I and Obama = 100%D-0%R-42%I. Calculate the total and it’s Romney=52.7% and Obama=47.3%. That’s “only” a 5.4% point swing.
Of course, the reality is that independents are not 33% of the voting electorate and Romney was already leading with them; I am simply positing a “best-case” scenario for independents to speak.
...hard to believe that there are that many people who support $5/gallon gas and 20% real un/underemployment...
I agree. The performance(s) during the debate were striking.
The press keeps relying on the fact that the challenger historically wins the first debate. This may be true, but there is a huge caveat.
What the press is missing (on purpose?) is that never in history has a sitting president, who was hailed as such a intellectual heavyweight, come out looking so bad. And never has a challenger, framed as a goofy, gaffe prone Thurston Howell III caricature, come out looking so presidential.
The media-created images of the two men were the polar opposites of the men on stage. The media, even more than Obama, was shown to be frauds. They (and $150 million in Obama ads) had developed a Hollywood version of Romney - an out of touch Gordon Gecko plutocrat, with a touch of Mormom weirdness. It all blew up in their faces on Wednesday.
I think that is what the Romney camp was counting on all along - and why they held off on advertising, etc. Chris Christie had hinted it by saying, “On Thursday this race will be turned upside down.”
I think Romney takes a lead for good and does not look back. This will be remembered forever. Books will be written based on this moment in time.
The weekday vs. weekend polling was on my mind after the debate, while I was discussing things with the friend I viewed it with. It will be nice when next Thursday finally gets here so we can see a full week’s worth of numbers.
You scared the crap out of me. I hadn’t had my 3rd cup of Joe yet. :)
Facts are stubborn things.
From the getgo, I said that Romney made a valid point, one that America needs to hear, in that video clip, but that he conflated (mixed together apples and oranges) some things that were inaccurate and not helpful to the point that needs to be made, which is, too many people have become too dependent on government.
In my post you have responded to, I laid out just some of the facts that show that he did conflate things he should not have conflated because it gave misimpressions and inaccuracies that unnecessarily confused the truth and raised the hackles of many.
I stand by my post.
Because it contains the very truths that cause Romney and Ryan to try clearing up the confusion caused by Mitt’s wrongly stated point.
Again, right point, wrongly put.
Just ‘eye balling’ the breakdown, I’d have to believe that Ras is weighting his turnout model to something like D+7 or D+8. There is no way it is D+4 when Romney attracts more D’s than Obama does R’s and Independents fall to Romney by 16 points!
Excellent analysis, I think, especially your third and fourth paragraphs.
I suspect some of those 11% are Republicans who see Romney as too liberal and will vote libertarian or skip the presidential part of the ballot this year.
15% of black vote? I mean thats not a lot, but I thought it was only around 10% in 2008 for McCain wasn’t it?
Looks like from those crosstabs that Romney is doing much better with Hispanics than Obama can afford.
Because those numbers are bogus just like the unemployment numbers....
For them, higher taxes means their union can demand pay raises, and 20% less of more is still 80% MORE!
You are correct...there are a number of Christians, primarily in the south; who will not vote for Romney because he is seen as too liberal or the fact that he is Mormon. That’s just the way it is...
Thank you for all the math! I am a Latin teacher, not a math guy! But, from your numbers, I can now extrapolate a general rule for myself: that in a perfect 33/33/33 model with parity between D & R, a 16 point advantage among Independents would only mean a 5 or 6 point move. So a sample of 20% Independents would move things only 2 or 3 points. So, with a +4 Dem sample (which well may not hold), a +2 lead for Mitt is pretty damned good!
I personally think Mormons are sort of goofy.
I would crawl over broken glass to kiss Mitt’s magic underware at this point!
Depends on the size of the sample of Independents.
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