Skip to comments.Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Rasmussen) - O:47%, R:49%, 'other':2%
Posted on 10/06/2012 6:44:28 AM PDT by AFPhys
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I suspect some of those 11% are Republicans who see Romney as too liberal and will vote libertarian or skip the presidential part of the ballot this year.
15% of black vote? I mean thats not a lot, but I thought it was only around 10% in 2008 for McCain wasn’t it?
Looks like from those crosstabs that Romney is doing much better with Hispanics than Obama can afford.
Because those numbers are bogus just like the unemployment numbers....
For them, higher taxes means their union can demand pay raises, and 20% less of more is still 80% MORE!
You are correct...there are a number of Christians, primarily in the south; who will not vote for Romney because he is seen as too liberal or the fact that he is Mormon. That’s just the way it is...
Thank you for all the math! I am a Latin teacher, not a math guy! But, from your numbers, I can now extrapolate a general rule for myself: that in a perfect 33/33/33 model with parity between D & R, a 16 point advantage among Independents would only mean a 5 or 6 point move. So a sample of 20% Independents would move things only 2 or 3 points. So, with a +4 Dem sample (which well may not hold), a +2 lead for Mitt is pretty damned good!
I personally think Mormons are sort of goofy.
I would crawl over broken glass to kiss Mitt’s magic underware at this point!
Depends on the size of the sample of Independents.
That 14% black is getting pretty close to the number that is needed for the logjam to break. When blacks in their own communities start to fearlessly support a Republican, the Dems are cooked. Something on the order of 20-25% is probably near that threshhold.
You got it :o)
Now I know who to ask if I want to be all cool and smart by saying things in Latin!
Excellent points...well written.
Independents were 29% in 2008 and their ranks have grown considerably since then (where do you think the D’s have gone?). Any model that has I’s at less than 30% would be highly suspect.
Furthermore, Romney is getting a bigger % of R’s than Obama is of D’s. Romney is also getting 2 percentage points more of D’s than Obama is of R’s.
All in all, Rasmussen’s numbers seem to suggest something like a D+7.
O B A M A P H O N E S
sidebar to the thread, but for that reason, I would support a ruling that those who work for the Federal government should not be allowed a vote.
Still too tight.
When only a Presidential "Face Palm" will suffice.
Ha..he can't even manage a decent "face palm"....send him back to Harvard to retake FacePalm 101
I'm good with allowing them 3/5's .
Using a D+7 model (37D/30R/33I):
Romney 37(0.1)+30(0.89)+33(0.54) ~49
Obama 37(0.88)+30(0.8)+33(0.38) ~48
Assuming the I number is close to being right, I would suggest to me that Ras is in the ballpark of D+6 to D+8.
Thanks for doing that. Sounds reasonable. Wait until the more accurate numbers get mixed in!
Time for me to go on to my day. Y’all have fun here!
If my reverse-engineering using profit_guy’s internals is correct, Rasmussen’s party ID breakdown is:
39.3%D 34.4%R 26.6%I
Rasmussen is using a +5D model.
I can’t imagine only 26.6% independents. That is considerably lower than 2008, while the ranks of independents has grown since then.
An interesting polling note is that Rasmussen has Romney almost tied in the Electoral College, if toss ups are allocated by the current polls - http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard
Safe or likely Romney totals 181. Safe or likely Obama totals 237. There are no states that “lean” either way. In the 120 “toss up” EV states, Obama leads for NV’s 6 votes, WI’s 10 votes, and OH’s 18 votes. That takes Obama to 271 over Romney’s 267, a very narrow loss for America - on polls that in many cases are pre-debate.
As has been posted on FR lately, response rates are way down. Only 9% response rate where it had been 38% in 2008 previously.
IMO, pollsters are overplaying their hand this election, and flooding too many people with too many calls, to the point where they have alienated a large segment. The people who do have time are, speculatively, those who lean Democrat.
But, Rasmussen has to assume by the rules of polling science that the people who do answer his calls are still representative of the voting segment, because it is impossible to prove the makeup of people who won’t be polled.
Obama is still slightly up in the electoral count on Rasmussen, but the gap has closed considerably.
It looks like about 271 Obama and 267 Romney when all toss-ups are given to the current state leader per Rasmussen’s numbers.
Obama is ahead in Nevada 6, Wisconsin 10, and Ohio 18.
If he loses any of those, he loses the election. If he wins all 3, he wins the election.
The most likely Romney win will be in Ohio, but it will also be the costliest.
This is only based on the numbers Rasmussen is showing now. I imagine Rasmussen will come out with new numbers on those states based on post-debate polling.
I think the people who do still support Obama are hoping that he had just one bad night. Romney put Obama on the floor but has not yet delivered the finishing blow.
IMO, Romney has tied the race. If Romney delivers another KO punch, a landslide may really happen.
It really is an unspeakable tragedy - to see what the so-called "caring" liberals have done to our black people.
It's not going to be an easy road but the Republicans have nothing to lose by offering them a more positive and uplifting message. Show them how their lives can be improved by getting off welfare and entering the workforce or starting their own businesses. Then make it happen through serious welfare reform and making it financially more attractive to work a job (or start a business) than to collect a government welfare check.
This means that Republicans are going to have to stop walking on eggshells and tell it like it really is. Sure, they will at first get hammered by the Al Sharpton types and the media. But a lot of black people will respond to such a message and slowly, the Republicans and conservatism will win more and more of the black vote because they will offer a better way of life.
We already have some great black leaders on our side of the fence. Allen West, Thomas Sowell, Herman Cain, Condoleeza Rice, Clarence Thomas, JC Watts, to name a few. Let's build on that.
As a conservative, I'm tired of seeing the black people being written off and it pains me to see the way of life so many of them are forced into by misguided liberal policies.
Many like me, when polled, still have the luxury of voting “other”. Come election day, there’s but one choice.
Vote out Obama.
>> Dems always poll better at weekends also in Rasmussen <<
Correct — strictly speaking — but it’s basically irrelevant to the discussion at hand, because Rasmussen always adjusts his results to eliminate the “weekend effect.”
(He also adjusts his numbers, by the way, to eliminate factors like the bias arising from the problem that eldery people are much more likely than young people to answer a landline phone.)
2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, IA OR NV = 272EV
The adjustments aren’t necessarily correct.
Ohio is the key.
Whoever wins it, wins the whole thing.
I’m a member of a minority demographic that is statistically worse off than blacks. I can’t speak for blacks, but I can speak from observations with my own demographic.
IMO, nothing will change their mindsets or votes except cold turkey withdrawal from government dependence. There is just too much pressure for the status quo otherwise, plus you always get more of what you subsidize. Stop subsidizing, and you’ll get less of what you subsidize (poverty, out-of-wedlock pregnancies, etc), almost like magic.
I know they think Obama had a bad night, and that he somehow was not as good as he normally is.
I don’t believe that. I think his looking down, his long pauses, his drawn out “aaaannds” and his clipped pauses mid—sentences are exactly who he has always been.
I believe the media is hoping for a huge showing by Joe Biden this week. Anything close to a draw with Ryan will be painted by the media as if it were Obama himself performing. I remember Joe Biden making up stats from thin air continually in his debate with Palin. He’s very very good at making stuff up and simply going on. (One was his statement that we’d spent more in a week/month in Iraq than we had in all of the Afghan war at the time....the war the dems considered the good war.)
Obama, on the other hand, will have to undergo a complete personality and style change to “be” different in Debate #2 with Romney. I believe they’ll continue to pound the “5 trillion tax cut” theme, although Romney has never said other than a revenue-neutral 20% cut for the middle class. That could be lower middle and middle middle and still be true, and since the lower middle is responsible for very little tax at all, it wouldn’t be hard to make it revenue neutral.
>> Rasmussen has to assume by the rules of polling science that the people who do answer his calls are still representative <<
No, he doesn’t assume they are totally representative, and as a result, he makes many “adjustments” to the raw numbers.
From the getgo, I said Romney had a point, about too many people being too dependent on the government, but he did not state it correctly and gave many misimpressions.
What we don’t know is what was not shown on the tape. I’ve seen posts indicating that it is edited, and doesn’t include the context of the lead in to the
Also, we shouldn’t forget this was a $50,000 a plate event.
I don’t think many of us would want those donors to feel we were targeting monies to people who rightly will support O regardless of what he says or does.
Is 49% Romney’s high water mark with Ras?
I don’t remember him ever getting to the magical 50%, but I could be wrong.
>> The adjustments arent necessarily correct. <<
Well, one can also say that they aren’t “necessarily” incorrect. So there!
I do feel like the establishment has limited my choices, ofcourse, as they always do. But like someone on here said, (Laz, I believe) all Romney really offers is an extension and I want that extension. (paraphrasing)
The stat that jumps out at me is the right direction vs. wrong direction. That's a huge gap, and in the voting booth, the people who find Obama like-able aren't going to pull the lever for him if they believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. This is also why undecideds will break for Romney big time.
Gary Johnson? The dude came out in support of the Occupy movement. He supports the legalization of weed and gay marriage. He states Iran is no great threat to our national security and wants to cut our military in half. Off the rails on national defense and social issues.
Yes, odd for most, but this media goes by its own ever changing rules.
If Obama is playing rope a dope as the Left claims the dope he roped is himself.
Happy Rain wrote:
MSM so far up Obamas butt a right turn would break their necks.
LOL! Best line of the day I’ve heard so far!
I have three adult children and the youngest will be casting her first vote this year. None make enough to pay income taxes, yet they are conservative as you come.
One is in ministry.
One is a marine.
One is a wonderful young high school girl, completely devoted to her Lord and Savior.
All three support Romney.
He was basically taking taxes and monetary stuff in this interview and I agreed with everything he said. I really want the government so small, inconsequential and out of my life as if could ever be. Especially my out of money.