Posted on 10/06/2012 2:12:04 PM PDT by raptor22
Campaign 2012: When an incumbent Democratic president is virtually tied in a congressional district he carried by high double digits in 2008, and is losing in the suburbs of his hometown, there could be trouble brewing.
In August, a poll by the Joliet, Ill.-based polling firm of McKeon and Associates, found President Obama leading challenger Mitt Romney in Cook County, which includes Chicago and its suburbs, by a 12-point margin 49-37.
That would seem to be a comfortable edge, but it is significantly smaller than traditional margins needed to outweigh the more Republican downstate vote.
"He has to come out of Cook County with a big lead or he's gonna have problems downstate," explained McKeon, who said that based on the numbers he's seen, Obama polled only in the 40s in downstate Illinois.
If his poll, which surveyed 629 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus/minus 3.4%, is accurate, Obama would be in some trouble.
In the city of Chicago itself, McKeon found Obama with a 60-29 lead over Romney. But Romney led 45-38 in the surrounding areas. Across the county as a whole, Romney led 43-31 among independent voters and held a 44-38 lead among male voters.
McKeon noted that in the 2010 gubernatorial race Republican Bill Brady came within a single percentage point of now-Gov. Pat Quinn because Brady won most of the downstate counties that have traditionally resisted and resented being dominated by upstate Chicago politicians.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...
Win Illinois? Unlikely. Foolish to waste money trying. It will be a Reagan-esque blowout if Illinois is in play.
ping
Ill. may be angry at him that he chose to live in his other ‘homestate’ Hawaii.
That’d be a real kick in the old golf club bag.
Like Gore losing Tennessee.
ping
don’t think it will ever happen. downstate, we are pretty conservative. crook county dominates. we even have to pay their taxes.
will have to relocate pretty soon to AZ. family there. i live in a police state.
blesssssssings, bobo
Send Ryan to Rockford, IL. He would get press coverage in IA, MO, WI, and IL.
No way he could lose Illnois. The needed votes are already to go, stuffed into boxes and car trunks, just waiting to see how many are required.
I have an unshakable faith that they will find that lead.
It would be some great poetic justice....
Not gonna happen.
No, we are angry with him because he is an incompetent boob who is doing all he can to destroy this country and we are ashamed to be associated with him and Chicago (or as we sometimes say downstate, Sh..cago. Fill in the blanks).
On another point, the only counties that Pat Quinn (D) carried were Cook and Washington. The first is, of course, Chicago and the other is East St. Louis. So most of the people in the larger landmass of Illinois are not as stupid as our neighbors to the north and southwest.
“Could Obama Lose Home State Of Illinois?”
Not unless they move Chicago to Michigan
bttt
BTTT!!
Short answer : no. It’s not that it’s his home state (although that does help him in Chicagoland)—it’s just too Democrat a state right now. President Bush got only 44.5% in 2004 (while he was getting 50.7% nationally), and Kerry’s victory margin in IL was higher than in WA, NJ, HI, ME, DE or even CA.
Anything is possible until the end. We should aim for a Reagenesque knockout of Obama — 0 electoral votes. I know it sounds impossible, but lets aim for the sky. At the worst we’ll reach the top of the tree
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